Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

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This paper provides an overview of what is actually known about the relationship between climate change and human mobility in West, East and Southern Africa – the most affected regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there is a general lack of data on “climate migration”, trends can be deduced from the growing number of case studies and research projects. This paper also formulates some recommendations for German and European development policies for addressing “climate migration” in Africa.
The adverse effects of climate change in the three regions are mainly linked to increasing rainfall variability and a higher frequency or intensity of floods and droughts. These effects are a major challenge for human security. The consequences for human mobility, which range from forced displacement to circular labour migration, are embedded in a complex and very context-specific set of political, social, economic, cultural and ecological factors. Due to generally fragile contexts and armed conflicts, the risk of forced displacement in the context of climate change is probably the highest in the Horn of Africa. In all three regions, many households affected by climate change can be considered “trapped” – mobility is not an option for them at all. If mobility is possible, it often takes the form of individual and circular labour migration. Under favourable circumstance (e.g. in the absence of labour exploitation), money earned by migrants might help their households to compensate or at least mitigate the losses induced by climate change (“migration as adaptation”).
The ideal political response towards human mobility in the context of climate change is to avoid forced displacement, to maximise positive mechanisms of migration and to minimise negative aspects like labour exploitation. This demands a multi-sectoral and multi-level policy approach.
To achieve this, we have formulated the following recommendations:

• Capacity building and bridging gaps between different policy fields. Dialogue processes between the different (policy) fields and communities need to be fostered. As concepts of migration differ significantly between relevant policy fields, a common understanding of the challenges related to human (im-)mobility in the context of climate change has to be created.
• Multi-level governance and local empowerment. Open policy spaces should be established and more resources mobilised to strengthen vulnerable groups and communities, which have so far only played a marginal role in relevant policy processes.
• Collection of data and best practices. The creation of an appropriate database and documentation of best practices regarding the complex problems of local vulnerability and the role of human mobility is absolutely essential for further action. There are severe gaps in this regard.

Zusammenfassung:

Die Signale aus der Industrie sprechen für ein schwaches Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft im zweiten Quartal: Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) gibt im Juni weiter nach und liegt mit 96 Punkten nunmehr klar unter der 100-Punkte-Marke, die für einen durchschnittlichen Anstieg der Wirtschaftsleistung steht. Demnach dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Vergleich zu den ersten drei Monaten dieses Jahres um lediglich 0,1 Prozent und damit kaum zunehmen. „Die deutsche Wirtschaft legt im Frühsommer eine Verschnaufpause ein“, sagt DIW-Konjunkturchef Claus Michelsen. „Dafür gibt es aber Gründe: Die Beschäftigten haben Ende April mehr Urlaub genommen als üblich und entsprechend weniger produziert.“ Aktuell schätzen die Industrieunternehmen die laufende Produktion schon wieder deutlich besser ein. Auch die Auftragsbücher sind weiterhin sehr gut gefüllt.

Learning from implementation challenges

Ny film om livredderne i Middelhavets flygtningegrav

Ny film om livredderne i Middelhavets flygtningegrav

Soeben ist ein neuer Fachaufsatz online erschienen, der die SOEP-Daten für die Soziologie beschreibt und der sich als Verweis gut eignet:

Marco Giesselmann, Sandra Bohmann, Jan Goebel, Peter Krause, Elisabeth Liebau, David Richter, Diana Schacht, Carsten Schröder, Jürgen Schupp, Stefan Liebig. 2019. The Individual in Context(s): Research Potentials of the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) in Sociology. European Sociological Review (online first), https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcz029

There are currently fourteen UN sanctions regimes, which member states are legally required to implement. Many of these are implemented in the context of armed conflict, where international humanitarian law outlines obligations to protect the provision of and access to principled humanitarian action. But despite efforts to make sanctions regimes more targeted, they continue to have unintended consequences, including impeding or preventing the provision of humanitarian assistance and protection—particularly when they coexist with counterterrorism measures.

This issue brief explains the various ways in which sanctions regimes can impact humanitarian action. Acknowledging that this is not a new issue—though one that may be of increasing concern—it identifies several factors that make it challenging to resolve. Finally, it lays out some avenues for progress, pointing to existing efforts and highlighting where more could be done.

Given that sanctions regimes are mostly targeted and that member states are bound to uphold the principles in the UN Charter and international humanitarian law (where it applies), sanctions should protect and not inhibit humani­tarian action. Where sanctions hinder aid, the impact on civilian populations is immediate, and efforts to backtrack will always come too late. Going forward, member states, the UN, financial institutions, and humanitarian actors should proactively and preventively tackle this problem. While the most effective courses of action will require political will, stakeholders at all levels can take incremental steps to help mitigate the impact.

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Danish Foreign Policy Review 2019 udgivet af DIIS er nu på gaden. Review indeholder i år tre fagfællevurderede forskerartikler, der analyserer centrale elementer i dansk udenrigspolitik.

In every fourth post-conflict country a new constitution is written, but the effect of these post-conflict constitution-making processes on peace remains understudied. Constitution-making has become a corner stone of peacebuilding efforts in post-conflict societies and is widely supported by international actors. It is often seen as a main component of a political transition necessary in states that have experienced internal warfare. This is because a successful constitution-making process establishes a new and potentially permanent governance framework that regulates access to power. However, systematic analyses of the effect of post-conflict constitution-making on peace have been lacking. This Briefing Paper presents new, empirical evidence showing that post-conflict constitution-making can contribute to peace.
Countries emerging from conflict often adopt new constitutions in order to signal a clear break with the past regime and to reform the institutions that are often seen as at least partially responsible for conflict having erupted in the first place. Post-conflict constitution-making has taken place in highly diverse settings – ranging from the aftermath of civil war, as in Nepal or South Africa, to interethnic clashes or electoral violence, as in Kyrgyzstan or Kenya. And in the current peace talks around Syria the question of writing a new constitution also plays a prominent role. Since academic evidence is lacking as to whether constitution-making can contribute to peace after civil war, it remains an open question whether efforts in this regard should be pursued by international actors.
This Briefing Paper presents evidence that writing a new constitution positively influences post-conflict countries’ prospects for peace (for the full analysis see Fiedler, 2019). It summarises innovative, statistical research on post-conflict constitution-making, conducted by the DIE project “Supporting Sustainable Peace”. Based on an analysis of 236 post-conflict episodes between 1946 and 2010, two main results with clear policy implications emerge:

• Writing a new constitution reduces the risk of conflict recurrence. The analysis shows a statistically significant and robust association between writing a new constitution after experiencing violent conflict and sustaining peace. International efforts to support post-conflict constitution-making are hence well-founded. The theoretical argument behind the relationship suggests that it is important that constitution-making processes enable an extensive inter-elite dialogue that helps build trust in the post-conflict period.
• Post-conflict constitution-making processes that take longer are more beneficial for peace. This is likely because the trust-building effect of constitution-making only occurs when enough time enables bargaining and the development of a broad compromise. International actors frequently pressure post-conflict countries to go through these processes very quickly, in only a matter of months. The results question this approach, as very short constitution-making processes do not positively affect peace.

Maria Metzing, wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin im SOEP, hat ihre Dissertation an der Freien Universität Berlin erfolgreich verteidigt.

Die Doktorarbeit mit dem Titel "Essays on Inequality: Income Distribution, (Just) Taxation and Well-being" wurde von Prof. Dr. Carsten Schröder (DIW Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin) und Prof. Dr. Ronnie Schöb (Freie Universität Berlin) betreut. Wir gratulieren Maria herzlich zu ihrem Erfolg und wünschen ihr alles Gute für ihre weiter Karriere.

Kan partnerskaber løse alle verdens udfordringer?

Kan partnerskaber løse alle verdens udfordringer?

Ny hvidbog fra Norges blå regering kan med fordel inspirere en kommende rød regering i Danmark

Cortnie Anne Shupe, who worked at the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) department, has successfully defended her dissertation at the Freie Universität Berlin.

The dissertation with the title "Household Finances and Labor Supply: The Role of Public Policies" was supervised by Prof. Dr. Carsten Schröder (Freie Universität Berlin, DIW Berlin) and Prof. David Neumark, PhD (University of California Irvine, Institute of Labor Economics).

We congratulate Cortnie on her success and wish her all the best for her future career.

Europæiske lande modarbejder hinanden i det kaotiske Libyen. Konsekvensen kan både blive mere uro og flere flygtninge i Europa, konstaterer seniorforsker Hans Lucht i Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten

Europæiske lande modarbejder hinanden i det kaotiske Libyen. Konsekvensen kan både blive mere uro og flere flygtninge i Europa, konstaterer seniorforsker Hans Lucht i Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten

Zusammenfassung:

Unterschiede in den Renteneinkommen zwischen den Geschlechtern sind in Europa teils riesig – In Deutschland große Unterschiede zwischen West und Ost – Länderübergreifender Zusammenhang zwischen Rentenlücken und geschlechtsspezifischen Unterschieden am Arbeitsmarkt – Bessere Aufteilung von Sorge- und Erwerbsarbeit, etwa durch Abschaffung des Ehegattensplittings, könnte Erwerbsbiografien von Frauen stärken und Rentenlücken verkleinern

Männer erhalten in fast allen untersuchten Ländern Europas höhere Renten als Frauen – auch wenn man die Gender Pension Gaps um Alter und Bildung bereinigt. Diese Rentenlücken variieren allerdings sehr stark: Während in Estland fast kein Gender Pension Gap zu erkennen ist, liegt er in Luxemburg mit knapp 74 Prozent am höchsten. Die Rentenlücke in Ostdeutschland ist nur knapp halb so groß wie die Lücke in Westdeutschland. In der Regel fallen die Lücken in den skandinavischen und osteuropäischen Ländern am geringsten aus.

In an interview with FRANCE 24 in The Hague, IPI President Terje Rød-Larsen discussed the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and also shared his thoughts on the merits of the Trump administration’s plans for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.