Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Zusammenfassung:

Um mit der Corona-Pandemie möglichst angemessen umgehen zu können, ist es wichtig, dass die Menschen hierzulande eine realistische Vorstellung davon haben, wie hoch ihr individuelles Risiko einer Erkrankung ist. Wie aktuelle Analysen der SOEP-CoV-Studie nun zeigen, sind sich die meisten Menschen in Deutschland durchaus bewusst, dass Faktoren wie das Lebensalter, Vorerkrankungen und der Beruf einen starken Einfluss auf ihr individuelles Risiko haben, lebensbedrohlich an Covid-19 zu erkranken. Gleichzeitig wird das durchschnittliche Risiko dafür deutlich überschätzt. Dies könnte durchaus dazu beitragen, dass die Bevölkerung die derzeitigen Schutzmaßnahmen wie das Abstandhalten und das Tragen von Masken auch bei geringen Neuinfektionszahlen beibehält. Nichtsdestoweniger ist die Politik gefordert, den Informationsstand und die Risikomündigkeit der Bevölkerung weiter zu stärken.

This article discusses the prospects for forging new social contracts in highly fragile and conflict affected countries. Building on analytical insights from the political settlements and state fragility literature, conceptualising peacebuilding processes as efforts to forge social contracts enables us to address the roles of governments, social groups, citizens and external stakeholders. We discuss the potential for peacebuilding processes to realise social contracts by assessing societal perceptions of the core public good that citizens expect the state to provide, namely protection. We address two cases where ‘stateness’ was destroyed by foreign intervention and civil war: Iraq (since 2003) and Libya (since 2011). We discuss the troubled recent trajectories of efforts to build peace in Iraq and Libya along the substantive, spatial and temporal dimensions of the social contract. Drawing on interviews, survey results and estimates of civilian casualties, we take a ‘bottom-up’ perspective of their societies’ experiences and expectations regarding protection. We conclude that in both countries the provision of protection by the state and others runs counter to the expectations of significant parts of the population. At the national level, major social groups have been unable to overcome mutual distrust, while continued threats to physical security reduce the prospects that any social contract able to deliver other public goods can ever emerge. Existing political settlements in both countries have rewarded the politicization of ethno-sectarian identity (especially in Iraq) and have benefited economic war lordism (especially in Libya). We conclude that as social contracts at the national level are unlikely to emerge, the consequences of de-facto break ups of both countries must be acknowledged if social contracts at sub-national levels are to have any chance of delivering peace.

This article discusses the prospects for forging new social contracts in highly fragile and conflict affected countries. Building on analytical insights from the political settlements and state fragility literature, conceptualising peacebuilding processes as efforts to forge social contracts enables us to address the roles of governments, social groups, citizens and external stakeholders. We discuss the potential for peacebuilding processes to realise social contracts by assessing societal perceptions of the core public good that citizens expect the state to provide, namely protection. We address two cases where ‘stateness’ was destroyed by foreign intervention and civil war: Iraq (since 2003) and Libya (since 2011). We discuss the troubled recent trajectories of efforts to build peace in Iraq and Libya along the substantive, spatial and temporal dimensions of the social contract. Drawing on interviews, survey results and estimates of civilian casualties, we take a ‘bottom-up’ perspective of their societies’ experiences and expectations regarding protection. We conclude that in both countries the provision of protection by the state and others runs counter to the expectations of significant parts of the population. At the national level, major social groups have been unable to overcome mutual distrust, while continued threats to physical security reduce the prospects that any social contract able to deliver other public goods can ever emerge. Existing political settlements in both countries have rewarded the politicization of ethno-sectarian identity (especially in Iraq) and have benefited economic war lordism (especially in Libya). We conclude that as social contracts at the national level are unlikely to emerge, the consequences of de-facto break ups of both countries must be acknowledged if social contracts at sub-national levels are to have any chance of delivering peace.

This article discusses the prospects for forging new social contracts in highly fragile and conflict affected countries. Building on analytical insights from the political settlements and state fragility literature, conceptualising peacebuilding processes as efforts to forge social contracts enables us to address the roles of governments, social groups, citizens and external stakeholders. We discuss the potential for peacebuilding processes to realise social contracts by assessing societal perceptions of the core public good that citizens expect the state to provide, namely protection. We address two cases where ‘stateness’ was destroyed by foreign intervention and civil war: Iraq (since 2003) and Libya (since 2011). We discuss the troubled recent trajectories of efforts to build peace in Iraq and Libya along the substantive, spatial and temporal dimensions of the social contract. Drawing on interviews, survey results and estimates of civilian casualties, we take a ‘bottom-up’ perspective of their societies’ experiences and expectations regarding protection. We conclude that in both countries the provision of protection by the state and others runs counter to the expectations of significant parts of the population. At the national level, major social groups have been unable to overcome mutual distrust, while continued threats to physical security reduce the prospects that any social contract able to deliver other public goods can ever emerge. Existing political settlements in both countries have rewarded the politicization of ethno-sectarian identity (especially in Iraq) and have benefited economic war lordism (especially in Libya). We conclude that as social contracts at the national level are unlikely to emerge, the consequences of de-facto break ups of both countries must be acknowledged if social contracts at sub-national levels are to have any chance of delivering peace.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the multiple crises it unleashed around the world coincided with the beginning of the period that the world leaders dubbed the “Decade of Action” to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Launched at the beginning of 2020, it aims to instill a sense of urgency, thereby spurring action, unlocking development finance, and harnessing innovative approaches for the attainment of the SDGs and the promise of “leaving no one behind”. A strong call for action was based on the realization that the world was seriously off-track in its progress towards sustainable development. Delivering on the promises of financing and the commitments of partnership is key for progress across the goals.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the multiple crises it unleashed around the world coincided with the beginning of the period that the world leaders dubbed the “Decade of Action” to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Launched at the beginning of 2020, it aims to instill a sense of urgency, thereby spurring action, unlocking development finance, and harnessing innovative approaches for the attainment of the SDGs and the promise of “leaving no one behind”. A strong call for action was based on the realization that the world was seriously off-track in its progress towards sustainable development. Delivering on the promises of financing and the commitments of partnership is key for progress across the goals.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the multiple crises it unleashed around the world coincided with the beginning of the period that the world leaders dubbed the “Decade of Action” to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Launched at the beginning of 2020, it aims to instill a sense of urgency, thereby spurring action, unlocking development finance, and harnessing innovative approaches for the attainment of the SDGs and the promise of “leaving no one behind”. A strong call for action was based on the realization that the world was seriously off-track in its progress towards sustainable development. Delivering on the promises of financing and the commitments of partnership is key for progress across the goals.

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist neuesten Zahlen des Statistischen Bundesamtes zufolge im zweiten Quartal um gut zehn Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal eingebrochen. Gegenüber dem Vorjahr fiel die Wirtschaftsleistung sogar knapp zwölf Prozent geringer aus. Dazu ein Statement von Claus Michelsen, Konjunkturchef des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Die Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland ist im zweiten Quartal dramatisch eingebrochen. Minus gut zehn Prozent bedeuten ein tiefes Loch, aus dem sich die deutsche Wirtschaft nur Stück für Stück wird heraushangeln können. Es dauert wahrscheinlich mindestens zwei Jahre, bis die Wirtschaftsleistung das Vor-Corona-Niveau wieder erreicht. Darüber hängt das Damoklesschwert weiterer Infektionswellen hierzulande und in den wichtigsten Absatzmärkten. Der Einbruch des Bruttoinlandsprodukts war allerdings in dieser Größenordnung zu erwarten. Wichtig ist nun nach vorne zu schauen: Die Wirtschaftspolitik hat größtenteils gut reagiert, die Einkommen vieler Haushalte stabilisiert und Unternehmen das Überleben gesichert. Auch das beschlossene Konjunkturpaket beinhaltet sinnvolle Maßnahmen, die eine kurzfristige Erholung der Wirtschaft begünstigen. Wichtig ist allerdings eine weitere Stärkung der Investitionstätigkeit mit einem Fokus auf eine digitale, klima- und ressourcenschonende Wirtschaftsweise. Es gilt nicht nur die Folgen der Corona-Krise auszugleichen, sondern die deutsche Wirtschaft wettbewerbsfähig und nachhaltig aufzustellen und so das Wachstumspotential zu erhöhen. Innovative Gründungen, effiziente Bildungssysteme und umweltschonende Infrastrukturen sind in diesem Zusammenhang nur einige der möglichen Ansatzpunkte. In diesem Sinne bietet der historische Einbruch der deutschen Wirtschaft auch Chancen.

By providing insights into the interaction between private-driven and public-driven governance initiatives in the context of the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and the Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO), this article sheds new light the interaction between private and public governance. It investigates how the relationship between the RSPO and the ISPO evolves over time and who and what drives this evolution. While the interaction between these standard schemes has initially largely been characterized by competition, it has become more collaborative and also coordinated in nature. This article argues that the experimentalist architecture of palm oil governance has fostered mechanisms for coordination across public and private certification schemes and has helped to join up the separate components of the regime complex through productive interactions. At the same time, several gaps and challenges remain, especially in light of the different interests of the multiple public and private actors involved in palm oil.

By providing insights into the interaction between private-driven and public-driven governance initiatives in the context of the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and the Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO), this article sheds new light the interaction between private and public governance. It investigates how the relationship between the RSPO and the ISPO evolves over time and who and what drives this evolution. While the interaction between these standard schemes has initially largely been characterized by competition, it has become more collaborative and also coordinated in nature. This article argues that the experimentalist architecture of palm oil governance has fostered mechanisms for coordination across public and private certification schemes and has helped to join up the separate components of the regime complex through productive interactions. At the same time, several gaps and challenges remain, especially in light of the different interests of the multiple public and private actors involved in palm oil.

By providing insights into the interaction between private-driven and public-driven governance initiatives in the context of the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and the Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO), this article sheds new light the interaction between private and public governance. It investigates how the relationship between the RSPO and the ISPO evolves over time and who and what drives this evolution. While the interaction between these standard schemes has initially largely been characterized by competition, it has become more collaborative and also coordinated in nature. This article argues that the experimentalist architecture of palm oil governance has fostered mechanisms for coordination across public and private certification schemes and has helped to join up the separate components of the regime complex through productive interactions. At the same time, several gaps and challenges remain, especially in light of the different interests of the multiple public and private actors involved in palm oil.

Zusammenfassung:

Die coronabedingten Schließungen von Schulen und Kinderbetreuungseinrichtungen im April und Mai 2020 haben viele Eltern vor eine immense Herausforderung gestellt. Plötzlich mussten Kinder ganztags zu Hause betreut und beschult werden. Wie aktuelle Ergebnisse der SOEP-CoV-Studie zeigen, lag die Hauptlast der Kinderbetreuung während des Lockdowns bei den Müttern. Gleichzeitig investierten die Väter überproportional mehr Zeit in die Betreuung ihrer Kinder als zuvor. Durch das Homeschooling waren insbesondere Alleinerziehende, aber auch weniger gut gebildete Eltern stark belastet.

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Current and past fellows of the African Leadership Centre held a virtual discussion on July 27th on “Rethinking Governance, Security and Peace in the Time of COVID-19: Implications for African Leadership.”

To stimulate the discussion, an article by one of the current fellows was shared ahead of the event.

IPI Senior Adviser Youssef Mahmoud said the purpose of the conversation was to reassess some of the inherited organizing paradigms of good governance, the state, security, and development, and to highlight innovative actions that African leaders, particularly women and youth, have come up with to spur progress and lay foundations for the post-pandemic future.

Since 2008, IPI has worked with King’s College London and the African Leadership Centre to bring a select group of African scholars to New York each July, though this year’s nine IPI African Junior Professional Fellows participated virtually. For the purposes of the conversation, they broke off into three groups, choosing their individual focuses from the categories of governance, security, or peace, and selecting a spokesperson to articulate their views.

The first fellow to speak, Kundai Mtasa of Zimbabwe, highlighted how COVID-19 had disrupted governance. “The key disruption that we decided to speak about is corruption, which is not a new disruption, but it has been emphasized because of the increased need for resources,” she said. “COVID-19 has shown that every restriction on movement or economic activity has created a favorable market for those who can find a way around official controls through bribery, smuggling or other activities. Lockdown has provided an opportunity and an income to those who are already engaged in activities such as corruption. And corruption during COVID-19 has largely been as a result of the mismanagement of resources that were supposed to go to the mitigation of COVID-19.” This, in turn, Ms. Mtasa said, has led to large parts of the population being deprived of access to health care and water and sanitation hygiene facilities and systems of cash stimulus to cushion the blow on low-income households.

Ms. Mtasa cited cases in both Kenya and Zimbabwe where citizens had innovated to make up for official lapses. “In the context of Kenya, the COVID-19 funds meant to improve health care infrastructure have been highly mismanaged, and this has resulted in a lack of beds to cater to the rising number of COVID-19 cases. Consequently, Kenyan youths have taken matters into their own hands by making and providing beds. In the case of Zimbabwe, we have seen how sanitizers, masks, and gloves have been made within universities, such as the University of Zimbabwe. This has been in response to the lack of sanitizers and basic COVID-19 infrastructure available to the rest of the population.”

As for the future, Ms. Mtasa argued that the achievements of university students in Zimbabwe making their own hand sanitizer and young Congolese students creating masks and sanitizing booths were examples of youth response that ought to be encouraged. “It also highlights the importance of investing in higher institutions of learning for current and future development within African society.”

Ms. Mtasa said her group concluded that COVID-19 has actually shown the potential of African solutions to African problems. African leaders need to look for inward solutions and invest in their own countries, particularly the youth who drive the majority of the innovations in Africa. This is an example of how the youth play a crucial role in creating the sustainability of resilient and peaceful societies.”

Tabitha Mwangi of Kenya chose the subject of security and listed a number of security issues that had been adversely affected by the pandemic:

• Accountability: “We have had emergency powers invoked by many governments;”
• Transparency: “There’s a lack of disclosure on how funds are being used by governments to deal with the pandemic;”
• Rule of law: “It has been neglected with police and other security agencies doing what they want;”
• Participation: “Decisions are now being made by elites, mostly men, given the structure of government in most countries, and they do not consult experts, such as doctors, with many recommendations being made that are not directly compatible with what medics are prescribing;”
• Responsiveness: “Regulations are out of touch with the reality of people’s lives, like lockdowns in low-income areas where people are unable to stay at home because they need to make a daily wage;”
• Effectiveness: “Security forces have to do things outside their scope of work like escorting expectant women in distress to health centers after curfews;”
• Diversion of attention from real security needs: “The fact that there’s a pandemic going on doesn’t mean that violent extremist groups are going to take a back seat;”
• Human rights abuses: “They have been on the rise because of increased sexual and gender-based violence. We have had a higher incidence of rapes and female genital mutilation happening;”
• Police brutality: “Police use excessive means to enforce curfew and lockdown regulations;” and
• Xenophobia: “Foreign nationals have been targeted because of the perception that COVID-19 came from the outside. So if you see a foreigner, then they’re likely the ones who brought the disease to your home.”

Ms. Mwangi mentioned several instances in which African governments and citizens had acted to address security disruptions. In Kenya, she said, the president apologized for the actions of officers who had used excessive force to enforce curfews. The African Union held a virtual conference on the joint response to COVID-19, and governments had adopted different approaches to cushioning the most vulnerable, like tax reductions and easing of lockdowns to allow people in the informal sector to continue working. In Kenya, we have had money transfer cuts so it’s now cheaper for people to transact to avoid having to use physical cash.”

She said too that various countries were working together to ensure that they speak with one voice so that when a global vaccine is found, “they will not be left behind.” Among the homegrown innovations she mentioned were decongesting prisons, integrating trade within the continent to enhance food security, and involving the local population in “matters of security and accountability to ensure transparency in the use of funds.”

Going forward, Ms. Mwangi said that COVID-19 “presents an opportunity to build better by bridging the inequality gap and prioritizing health and human security, ensuring that security officials respect the rule of law and human rights and continue training and increased community-law enforcement dialogue and engagement, and empowering and auditing oversight bodies to ensure that they deliver justice.”

Essa Njie of The Gambia, the last current fellow to speak, focused on peace and noted that the African Union said at the outset in February that COVID-19 was a direct threat to peace and security on the continent. “That is certainly what we are seeing today,” he said. He reported that the pandemic had diverted the attention of both national and international actors from ongoing peace processes, closed national borders, and also provoked instances of police brutality and security force repression on the ground that were compounding the fear that people already felt from the menace of the disease. “We have seen cases of excessive peacekeeping use of force in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa where the threat from law enforcement is more immediate than the threat from the virus itself.”

Mr. Njie said that countries like Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, Libya, Somalia, and South Sudan were facing the twin dilemmas of rising COVID-19 cases and stepped up terrorist group activity. “We have also seen peacekeeping operations facing challenges, especially as critical operations and rotations have been delayed or canceled due to military forces and police forces being quarantined. Some of them have to be quarantined when they arrive.”

Mr. Njie said the pandemic had created opportunities by spurring online conversations to advance peace processes and enabling governments and individuals to get food and funds to needy communities. But a significant downside was the rise of authoritarianism with “authoritarian regimes using the pandemic as an opportunity to stifle dissent and to violate human rights, as others have pointed out, with excessive use of force.” He noted that 24 elections had been postponed since March, costing governments credibility and heightening the allure of armed opposition groups. “People have started questioning whether COVID is, in fact, real, whether it exists, because the government has lost that level of confidence or that support from the people. I think it’s a result of the corruption allegations, the fact that politicians are using this as an opportunity to gather more money and misuse public funds.” He recounted that local rights groups and societal actors had “embarked on online sensitization on COVID and domestic violence against women.” He added, though, that he had seen several reports of femicide during lockdowns, notably in South Africa. “Governments and private individuals have also responded to the financial impact vis-à-vis poverty by providing food packages and funds to vulnerable families and individuals, for instance, in The Gambia and in Nigeria where the private sector has been effectively engaged in that.”

As examples of moves that governments have made that should be carried forward, he cited actions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire making short-term provisions for free electricity and water through suspension of bill payments to protect citizens from financial pressures brought on by the pandemic. “These measures prove that governments in Africa can provide substantial and universal social protection measures, especially in crisis situations,” he said. “The pandemic has necessitated governments to each look to their own and not look outward for help.”

Dennis Jjuuko, an alumnus of the African Leadership Centre, commented that the pandemic was telling Africans not to neglect the value of their homegrown capacities. “We have always had innovations happening on the continent that we have chosen to be silent on, for a certain reason. COVID-19 actually lays bare the traditional context that we’ve always thought about, and opens us to emerging realities from academia, youth innovations, and inventions on the African continent.”

Mr. Jjuuko, who is now a doctoral student of global governance and human security at the University of Massachusetts, Boston, touted “African solutions to African problems, looking inward into Africa and harnessing our potential. Though we’ve always chosen to push aside and look towards the West for solutions, Africa as a continent is ripe for ideas that are worth harnessing.” He asked, “Are we seeing a leadership ready to harness these innovations in their kind of governance? How do we then ensure that governance guarantees the harnessing of these efforts? I think academic institutions and think tanks and civil society have a role to play in this kind of governance.”

Another alumnus, Akinola Olojo, Senior Researcher, Complex Threats in Africa Programme, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa, said that while violent extremism had risen to the top of the security agenda across Africa, strategies to combat it were dated and failing. “If we look at how we’ve been addressing this very serious problem of violent extremism, it’s usually with the use of force, but we know that for more than a decade now, this particular approach has not really been effective. So, maybe we need to explore other paradigms that might be uncomfortable, that might actually challenge the way we do things, and see how that works for Africa. When we speak of dialogue, it’s not only about dialoguing with the combatants or with violent extremist groups or those other insecurity actors, but also about engaging with communities too. I was glad when the panel mentioned something about the responses of citizens, the local communities. To what extent are we really consulting them, trying to get their insights on how we solve these problems?”

Dominique Dryding, a former fellow who is now Afrobarometer Project Leader for Southern Africa, Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, South Africa, cited the mention by Mr. Njie of the rise of femicide in South Africa during the pandemic and asked why it was not being prioritized as a threat to peace. “We have a government that is quite capable of responding to crises, in creating emergency measures, from instituting a lockdown to ensuring that people have social protection, but gender-based violence, which is an absolute slap in the face to a notion of peace, is not prioritized by our government, so again when we think of peace, what are we talking about? And how do we bring peace back to an individual person who is stuck in a marriage where they get beat up, when being at home in a lockdown is not keeping you safe, but actually endangering your life?”

Mr. Mahmoud moderated the discussion.

Other group members included Ivy Nyawira Wahito and Alexandra Lukamba for governance, Ikran Mohamed Abdullahi and Ibrahim Machina for security, and Chimwemwe Fabiano and Margaret LoWilla for peace.

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H.E. Sheikha Mai bint Mohammed Al Khalifa, President of the Bahrain Authority for Culture & Antiquities and IPI MENA Director Nejib Friji

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Addressing the Bahrain Authority for Culture & Antiquities (BACA) and diplomats on July 26th, IPI MENA Director Nejib Friji highlighted the important roles education and youth have in cultivating a culture of peace, commending BACA’s efforts to pass the cultural message to the future generation as agents of change.

Leading the webinar, H.E. Sheikha Mai bint Mohammed Al Khalifa, President of the BACA, pointed out the importance of promoting the culture of peace through the cultural seasons organized by the Authority, especially during the Bahrain Summer Festival, in which large numbers of children and youth come together. Sheikha Mai said the participation of 15 embassies during the celebration’s 12th year represents clear support of multiculturalism and the values of peace, coexistence, and respect. She said that this year’s program, under the slogan “Together, Virtually,” emphasized the sustainability of BACA’s cultural projects and worked to strengthen the cultural infrastructure in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

Mr. Friji underlined the need for a culture of peace now more than ever, in light of rising national populism and unilateralism globally, which has been further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. He called for the exploration of connections between culture, peace, security, and sustainable development to build a foundation for mutual respect, prosperity, and broad-based inclusion. Mr. Friji commended the festival’s emphasis on inclusion in relation to online educational activities, at a time when youth could learn from their communities about building resilience, tolerance, and peace, amid global crises.

Sheikha Hala bint Mohammed Al Khalifa, Director General of the Culture and Arts Department said this year’s festival reflects the rich culture of Bahrain and its intangible heritage, and stressed the importance of providing continuous spaces for creativity and communication despite the extenuating circumstances of Covid-19. She hopes this year’s events will reach a wider audience using social media as the platform, and include increased participation from groups such as the youth.

The conference was attended by 18 embassies, including: the ambassadors of Indonesia, France, Japan, Korea, Pakistan, Palestine, Philippines, Russia, United Kingdom, Yemen; Charges D’affaires of Brunei Darussalam, Germany, Italy, Iraq; and diplomats from Oman, Malaysia, Thailand, and UAE, who all praised BACA’s role in sustaining the cultural movement in Bahrain and enhancing communication between the kingdom and the world.