Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Developing as a latecomer country is tricky. It implies competing with established production systems that benefit from know-how, economies of scale and network externalities accumulated over decades. It is thus unsurprisung that very few countries have been able to close the technological and income gap. Those that did, like South Korea and China, started by inviting foreign investors, buying licenses and emulating the early movers‘ proven business models until they had enough capabilies to chart their own pathways and become wealthy knowldege societies – and role models for other latecomers. Global warming and other major environmental crises however reveal the unsustainability of a techno-economic paradim based on burning fossil fuel and maximisation of material throughput and consumption. Hence, latecomers can no longer build on emulating technologies and institutions, but need to start deviating from established practices early on. Still, the successful country cases hold important policy lessons for them.

DIW-Präsident Marcel Fratzscher kommentiert die heutige Sitzung des EZB-Rats wie folgt:

Die EZB setzt mit ihrer Entscheidung, ihr Anleihekaufprogramm und ihr Liquiditätsprogramm nochmals auszuweiten und zu verlängern, auf Kontinuität und Vertrauen. Somit dürften beide Programme bis 2022 laufen. Die wohl wichtigste Botschaft der EZB ist der starke Fokus, die Zinsen für absehbare Zeit auf dem gegenwärtigen, niedrigen Niveau stabilisieren zu wollen. Die EZB gibt sich mit der Ausgestaltung ihrer Maßnahmen viel Flexibilität, vor allem auch in den von der Pandemie am stärksten betroffenen Ländern die Zinsen niedrig zu halten und eine weitere Divergenz im Euroraum zu verhindern.

Eine solche Flexibilität ist klug, denn die Risiken für die Wirtschaft und für die Finanzstabilität sind durch die Pandemie nach wie vor enorm, und es kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass auch einige Banken im Euroraum in Schieflage geraten könnten. Dies würde es für die EZB noch schwieriger machen, ihr Mandat der Preisstabilität in absehbarer Zeit wieder ausreichend erfüllen zu können.

Die EZB-Entscheidung ist ein starkes Signal, dass die Zinsen wohl auf die kommenden fünf Jahre hinaus auf sehr niedrigem Niveau bleiben werden. Dies dürfte Vermögenspreise, wie Aktien und Immobilien, weiter befeuern. Ob die EZB jedoch ihr Ziel erreichen wird, hängt entscheidend von der Fiskalpolitik in Europa ab, sowohl auf nationaler Ebene als auch durch das geplante Next-Generation EU-Programm. Die EU und Deutschland werden ihre Fiskalregeln ändern und verbessern müssen. Auch in Deutschland wird ein Einhalten der sehr engen Schuldenbremse ab 2022 kaum möglich sein.

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On December 9th, IPI together with the UN Department of Peace Operations cohosted a virtual event on “The Future of UN Peacekeeping.”

The panel event was part of a wider process led by the UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) to anticipate changes, considered emerging strategic trends and possible future scenarios and their potential implications for UN peace operations.

Over the coming decade, existing and emerging trends are likely to continue and deepen. How should the UN prepare and adapt peace operations for these challenges to international peace and security? Geopolitical competition will have consequences for how the UN responds, and under what circumstances. Changes in prevailing conflict dynamics may further strain established UN tools, while also necessitating new approaches. Global economic downturn in the wake of Covid-19 is likely to have consequences for peace and stability and the financial wherewithal of the UN to respond. Meanwhile, climate change, disease, migration, and new technologies will shape the international peace and security challenges of the next decade—and the types of responses that will be required.

The discussion also reflected on how the UN should adapt its policies, practices, skills, and capabilities in order to continue to make an effective operational contribution to peace and security.

Panelists:
Ms. Rania Dagash, Chief, Policy and Best Practices Service, UN Department of Peace Operations
Dr. Paul Williams, Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University
Mr. Jeffrey Feltman, John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, and Senior Fellow, UN Foundation
Mr. Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Distinguished Fellow, Brookings Institution
Ms. Laetitia Courtois, Permanent Observer to the UN & Head of Delegation for the International Committee of the Red Cross

Moderator:
Mr. Jake Sherman, IPI Senior Director of Programs

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This paper examines the dynamic short- and long-run asymmetric interactions and causality between real economic activity and stock and gold markets volatility shocks using both the cointegration Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Granger causality tests. In a further analysis, we used both the original and the partial sums decomposition of these variables to examine the level of market integration under different market conditions using the spillover index of Diebold & Yilmaz (2009; 2012; 2014). Our results indicate asymmetries in the short- and long-term relationships among these variables. In the long run, both positive and negative shocks from the energy market increase stock market volatility. However, only positive shocks on the gold market increase stock market volatility, while positive (negative) shocks on economic activity reduce (increase) stock market volatility. Also, an increase in both stock and energy markets volatility shocks are detrimental to real economic activity. We find a feedback effect between real economic activity shocks and these market volatility indexes, except for the gold market which has a unidirectional causality with the real economic activity shocks. Finally, the spillover analysis suggests a stronger integration among the partial sums, with the energy market as the dominant net-transmitter of both positive and negative shocks while the gold market is a net-receiver of shocks. Our results hold crucial implications for both investors and policymakers.

This paper examines the dynamic short- and long-run asymmetric interactions and causality between real economic activity and stock and gold markets volatility shocks using both the cointegration Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Granger causality tests. In a further analysis, we used both the original and the partial sums decomposition of these variables to examine the level of market integration under different market conditions using the spillover index of Diebold & Yilmaz (2009; 2012; 2014). Our results indicate asymmetries in the short- and long-term relationships among these variables. In the long run, both positive and negative shocks from the energy market increase stock market volatility. However, only positive shocks on the gold market increase stock market volatility, while positive (negative) shocks on economic activity reduce (increase) stock market volatility. Also, an increase in both stock and energy markets volatility shocks are detrimental to real economic activity. We find a feedback effect between real economic activity shocks and these market volatility indexes, except for the gold market which has a unidirectional causality with the real economic activity shocks. Finally, the spillover analysis suggests a stronger integration among the partial sums, with the energy market as the dominant net-transmitter of both positive and negative shocks while the gold market is a net-receiver of shocks. Our results hold crucial implications for both investors and policymakers.

This paper examines the dynamic short- and long-run asymmetric interactions and causality between real economic activity and stock and gold markets volatility shocks using both the cointegration Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Granger causality tests. In a further analysis, we used both the original and the partial sums decomposition of these variables to examine the level of market integration under different market conditions using the spillover index of Diebold & Yilmaz (2009; 2012; 2014). Our results indicate asymmetries in the short- and long-term relationships among these variables. In the long run, both positive and negative shocks from the energy market increase stock market volatility. However, only positive shocks on the gold market increase stock market volatility, while positive (negative) shocks on economic activity reduce (increase) stock market volatility. Also, an increase in both stock and energy markets volatility shocks are detrimental to real economic activity. We find a feedback effect between real economic activity shocks and these market volatility indexes, except for the gold market which has a unidirectional causality with the real economic activity shocks. Finally, the spillover analysis suggests a stronger integration among the partial sums, with the energy market as the dominant net-transmitter of both positive and negative shocks while the gold market is a net-receiver of shocks. Our results hold crucial implications for both investors and policymakers.

Access to labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and integrate into a host community. However, evidence shows that displaced people face specific challenges in integrating into the labour market. Covid-19 further aggravates these challenges. This policy brief presents evidence on interventions to ease the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of displaced populations, in the short term during lockdowns and in the medium and longer term under remaining restrictions and changed economic structures.

Access to labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and integrate into a host community. However, evidence shows that displaced people face specific challenges in integrating into the labour market. Covid-19 further aggravates these challenges. This policy brief presents evidence on interventions to ease the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of displaced populations, in the short term during lockdowns and in the medium and longer term under remaining restrictions and changed economic structures.

Access to labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and integrate into a host community. However, evidence shows that displaced people face specific challenges in integrating into the labour market. Covid-19 further aggravates these challenges. This policy brief presents evidence on interventions to ease the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of displaced populations, in the short term during lockdowns and in the medium and longer term under remaining restrictions and changed economic structures.

Die Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt sucht im Forschungsbereich „Transformation der Energiewirtschaft“ zur Mitarbeit in verschiedenen Forschungsprojekten

eine studentische Hilfskraft (w/m/div) für 10 Wochenstunden

This open access handbook analyses the role of development cooperation in achieving the 2030 Agenda in a global context of ‘contested cooperation’. Development actors, including governments providing aid or South-South Cooperation, developing countries, and non-governmental actors (civil society, philanthropy, and businesses) constantly challenge underlying narratives and norms of development. The book explores how reconciling these differences fosters achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

This open access handbook analyses the role of development cooperation in achieving the 2030 Agenda in a global context of ‘contested cooperation’. Development actors, including governments providing aid or South-South Cooperation, developing countries, and non-governmental actors (civil society, philanthropy, and businesses) constantly challenge underlying narratives and norms of development. The book explores how reconciling these differences fosters achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

This open access handbook analyses the role of development cooperation in achieving the 2030 Agenda in a global context of ‘contested cooperation’. Development actors, including governments providing aid or South-South Cooperation, developing countries, and non-governmental actors (civil society, philanthropy, and businesses) constantly challenge underlying narratives and norms of development. The book explores how reconciling these differences fosters achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Die Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt sucht im Forschungsbereich „Transformation der Energiewirtschaft“ zur Mitarbeit in verschiedenen Forschungsprojekten

eine studentische Hilfskraft (w/m/div)

für 10 Wochenstunden

Die im DIW Berlin angesiedelte forschungsbasierte Infrastruktureinrichtung
Sozio-oekonomisches Panel (SOEP) sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt zur Unterstützung im Survey Management im Bereich der Migranten- und Geflüchtetenstichproben ab dem 1. März 2021

eine studentische Hilfskraft (w/m/div) für 9 Wochenstunden

The UN Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) in December 2020. This comes as the UN begins to consider the eventual withdrawal of the mission. In October, the mission and the Congolese government submitted a “Joint Strategy on the Progressive and Phased Drawdown of MONUSCO” to the Security Council.

In this context, the International Peace Institute (IPI), the Stimson Center, and Security Council Report organized a workshop on November 12, 2020, to discuss the mandate and political strategy of MONUSCO. This workshop provided a forum for member states, UN stakeholders, and outside experts to share their assessment of the situation in the country. The discussion was intended to help the Security Council make more informed decisions with respect to the strategic orientation, prioritization, and sequencing of the mission’s mandate and actions on the ground.

There was strong agreement that the mission’s existing strategic priorities—the protection of civilians and support to stabilization and the strengthening of state institutions—should continue to provide an overarching framework for the UN’s engagement across the country. In addition, participants expressed the importance of focused engagement with local actors, including local government officials and civil society representatives. Participants also encouraged the UN to develop a transition plan that lays out a shared political vision for the future of the UN’s engagement in the country. They discussed the transition in terms of defining an “end state” rather than an “end date,” with a gradual drawdown that is based on realistic and measurable benchmarks, fosters national ownership, and ensures an integrated UN approach.

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Die forschungsbasierte Infrastruktureinrichtung Sozio-oekonomisches Panel (SOEP) im DIW Berlin sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt eine/n

wissenschaftliche/n MitarbeiterIn (w/m/div) (Vollzeit)