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Together against the shift in power: the Global South forms strategic alliances. Credit: Picture Alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com | Prime Minister’s Office/Press Information

By Alexandra Sitenko
BERLIN, Germany, Jan 28 2026 (IPS)

The United States’ attack on Venezuela marks a key watershed in the world order. We still cannot predict how this violation of another state’s sovereignty will ultimately play out.

But it has called into question the global order that is founded on sovereign equality. Experts talk of ‘imperialist imitation dynamics’ and a return to spheres of influence — a world where the major powers call the shots and smaller states have no choice but to toe the line.

There is one dynamic fuelled by the US intervention in Venezuela that we can’t ignore: countries in the Global South, especially middle powers, have begun to stand up for their interests more assertively, more strategically and in a more coordinated way. Not through open confrontation, but through a combination of flexibility, adaptation, diversification and tactical pushback.

Far from all countries in the Global South have openly condemned the American attack on Venezuela, but they have all at least expressed concern about what happened in South America. These events made clear how quickly military force can now be used to enforce a country’s interests, without any regard for the fundamental principles of the international order — and how limited their own options, especially military ones, actually are.

Containment and political autonomy

Alexandra Sitenko

That is exactly why Latin America’s strategy is one of diplomatic containment, making efforts to reach a pragmatic agreement with the United States. Last year, Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro engaged in a fierce war of words. The tensions only worsened after the US attack on Venezuela, and Trump threatened Colombia with military action.

Once the two leaders spoke over the phone, the situation began to cool. Petro is now preparing to meet Trump face-to-face in the United States. This shift from public confrontation to direct dialogue reflects a deliberate strategy of containment in the face of an imbalanced power relationship: pressure should be funnelled into managed, personal diplomacy to prevent things from escalating.

Alongside Colombia, Cuba and Mexico have found themselves in the American firing line, with the US adopting a noticeably harsher tone towards both countries. Cuba responded with a carefully calibrated strategy, showing it was willing to engage in dialogue and improve bilateral relations, while emphasising the importance of treating each other with respect on an equal footing.

Political concessions were explicitly ruled out. This can be seen as a sensible two-pronged approach — easing tensions while firmly defending sovereignty.

The Mexican President took a more pragmatic course when under pressure from Washington. Claudia Sheinbaum made only some targeted concessions, especially on key security and trade policy issues, such as taking tougher action against smuggling rings and raising tariffs on Chinese imports, to avoid escalation.

But she stuck to her guns on the judicial reform that was criticised by the United States and on increasing energy subsidies for Cuba. With its government openly condemning the US intervention in Venezuela, Mexico is pursuing a steady, measured path in its diplomatic relations: limited concessions coupled with political autonomy. But whether this strategy will work in the long term remains to be seen, not least in view of Trump’s unpredictable and erratic nature.

Diversifying foreign relations has become the Global South’s core strategy to reduce dependency and shore up political autonomy in times of global uncertainty.

There is no reason to think that China and Russia – as the other great powers – could be relied on as military counterweights in the Western Hemisphere. Neither has any military bases there, nor are they bound by any explicit mutual defence obligations involving military action.

Russia’s cooperation with Venezuela was limited to providing political support and supplying weapons and air-defence systems. This has given Latin America little choice other than de-escalation and dialogue with the United States, combined with asserting their right to make their own decisions.

The situation is similar in India. New Delhi responded to the American attack on Venezuela with a strikingly restrained statement, expressing ‘deep concern’. This drew sharp criticism domestically, with the opposition warning of setting such a precedent and that what happened to Venezuela could happen to any other country, including India itself.

The Global South is known for pursuing this diplomatic flexibility, deliberately diversifying its foreign and economic relations. This is not dissimilar from the multi-vector strategy that Central Asian states under the influence of Russia and China have successfully practised for decades.

India is a prime example, maintaining strategic relations with the United States while remaining closely tied to Russia on defence policy. New Delhi is currently on the verge of concluding a free-trade agreement with the EU and is stepping up its security and defence cooperation with European countries.

These trends can be seen in Latin America, too. It is no coincidence that the EU–Mercosur agreement – recently signed after more than 20 years of negotiations – comes at a time when both the EU and South America are under pressure from US trade and tariff policies. In the same vein, Colombia joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2025.

The Colombian President recently travelled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, and articulated the strategic logic behind this: Latin America’s path does not lie in joining a power bloc, but in building its own autonomous growth pole. Diversifying foreign relations has become the Global South’s core strategy to reduce dependency and shore up political autonomy in times of global uncertainty.

A notably independent stance

The clearest pushback so far has come from Africa. Several states there responded to the US attack not with open confrontation, but by taking symbolic and politically meaningful steps to distance themselves. South Africa’s ruling party condemned the aggression against Venezuela, with the country’s representative to the United Nations criticising the breach of core principles of the UN Charter and stressing the importance of sovereignty, non-interference and conflict resolution through diplomacy.

This message was underlined by conducting joint naval exercises almost simultaneously off the South African coast with several BRICS states, including Russia, China and Iran. At the opening ceremony, the commander of the South African joint task force stated that the drills were more than just a military exercise; they were also a political declaration of their intent to work more closely together in an increasingly complex maritime environment.

BRICS could well take a tougher position on security policy in the future — not necessarily in the form of a military alliance, but by expressing their strategic autonomy in the face of Western dominance.

As much as US behaviour might bring 19th-century gunboat diplomacy to mind, the world is a very different place today.

Ghana, a country that has traditionally maintained close relations with the United States, also took a notably independent stance. Accra voiced clear reservations about the unilateral military action and warned of setting a dangerous precedent that could undermine the security of smaller states in particular.

The African Union argued along similar lines and is so far the only regional organisation to have agreed on a common position. It is no surprise that African countries have taken a relatively forthright stance, given that so many of them have been deliberately broadening their security and economic partnerships for years.

China is now a key economic player in Africa, while Russia has expanded its military presence and security cooperation. Moscow is currently preparing to host this year’s third Russia-Africa summit — a special form of cooperation previously reserved for Russia’s Central Asian neighbours.

As much as US behaviour might bring 19th-century gunboat diplomacy to mind, the world is a very different place today. The traditional concept of spheres of influence assumes that weaker states will remain passive, something that the Global South is increasingly proving wrong: these countries are flexible and adaptable in their diplomatic relations, they consciously hedge their strategic bets, and they cooperate with multiple major powers at the same time, without allying themselves too closely with any one of them.

The spheres-of-influence narrative also underestimates the role of regional organisations, such as ASEAN, Mercosur, the African Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, as well as transregional groups like BRICS. These unions increasingly function as collective platforms that act as a buffer from external pressure, create greater leverage in negotiations for smaller states and throw a spanner in the works of great powers trying to assert their dominance.

The Global South is not a homogeneous bloc, nor is it merely a playing field for geopolitical rivalries. Many countries are exploiting the chaotic and fragmented world order to express and pursue their interests more assertively. The American operation may work as a power play in the short term, but in the long run, it could end up creating a more pluralistic and less hierarchical world order much more quickly.

Dr Alexandra Sitenko is an independent political consultant and researcher. She focuses on global peace and security, geopolitics in Eurasia and relations between Russia and the Global South.

Source: International Politics and Society, published by the Global and European Policy Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Im Luxusferienort Courchevel ist am Dienstagabend ein Feuer in einem 5-Sterne-Hotel ausgebrochen. 83 Gäste wurden evakuiert, Verletzte gibt es bisher keine.

Pretti hätte keine Waffe zum Protest bringen sollen, sagt Donald Trump. Dennoch bezeichnet der US-Präsident den Vorfall als «sehr bedauerlich».

Abena Christine Jon'el left the US and now aims to raise the profile of people with disabilities in Ghana.

Abena Christine Jon'el left the US and now aims to raise the profile of people with disabilities in Ghana.

Abena Christine Jon'el left the US and now aims to raise the profile of people with disabilities in Ghana.

Tritt Ariel zur Dschungelprüfung an, so bedeutet dies im Normalfall keine Sterne. Im Camp sorgt das für mächtig Stunk – bis sie sich in einer Prüfung doch noch deren vier sichert.

Setzt FCZ-Coach Dennis Hediger seinen Captain Yanick Brecher nach weiteren Patzern auf die Bank? Es gibt prominente Beobachter, die einen Goalie-Wechsel befürworten. Goalie-Juwel Silas Huber steht in den Startlöchern bereit.

Zweimal hat Marco Odermatt eine grandiose Aufholjagd gezeigt. Ein drittes Mal gelingts in Schladming nicht ganz. Er verpasst das Podest, während Teamkollege Loïc Meillard beim Nacht-Riesenslalom siegt.

Hannah und Tim sind längst getrennt – aber immer noch verheiratet. Für die beiden funktioniert es. In anderen Fällen ist ein offizieller Schlussstrich ratsam.

Neues Leben für das Gründenmoos in St. Gallen – geplant ist ein Zentrum für 150 Millionen. Es soll dem Breitensport, Profis und dem Nachwuchs zugutekommen. Die Behörden prüfen eine Zusammenarbeit.

Je nach Kanton dauert es ein Jahr, bis ein Baugesuch bewilligt ist. Der Schweizer Baumeisterverband warnt: Dies verschärft den Wohnungsmangel.

Die Bundesanwaltschaft wirft Ueli T. (53) Betrug und Geldwäscherei vor. Der Ex-SBB-Mitarbeiter aus dem Aargau soll seit 2007 9 Millionen Franken veruntreut haben. Er wurde im November 2024 in Olten SO verhaftet. Jetzt konnte Blick mit ihm sprechen.

Die meisten Menschen kennen jemanden, der schon einmal einen medizinischen Notfall oder einen Unfall hatte, bei dem eine Ambulanz oder ein Rettungshelikopter zum Einsatz kam. Die meisten gehen davon aus, dass Rettungskosten vollumfänglich übernommen werden. Ein Irrtum.

Unmittelbar nach der 3:4-Niederlage nach Verlängerung auswärts in Fribourg lässt es Ambri rumpeln. Es feuert das Trainer-Duo Éric Landry und René Matte – und holt bis Ende Saison Ex-SCB-Trainer Jussi Tapola.

Zwei Drohnen trafen in der Ukraine einen Zug mit über 100 Passagieren an Bord. Der ukrainische Präsident Selenski spricht von «Terrorismus» der Russen.

La CENA a publié mardi dernier les résultats des élections communales et municipales du 11 janvier 2026. Le constat général montre que l'Union Progressiste le Renouveau (U-PR) a raflé des postes de conseillers au plan national mais le parti a aussi fait des percées à Cotonou, la capitale économique, qui représente le département du Littoral.

L'Union Progressiste le Renouveau est arrivé en tête, avec des résultats très édifiants dans les 13 arrondissements que compte la commune de Cotonou.
L'analyse des résultats et autres données de chaque arrondissement, montre que trois arrondissements ont réalisé des performances au vue des suffrages obtenus.

En première position, le 2ème arrondissement de Cotonou vient en tête avec 65% des voix, grâce surtout aux efforts des quatre leaders que sont : le chef d'arrondissement sortant et 1er titulaire aux municipales comme aux législatives, Alexandre Sohou ; la députée de la 15ème Circonscription Electorale qui vient d'être réélue à son poste ; l'honorable Denise ; le candidat à l'élection présidentielle de 2006, l'ancien ministre Luc Gnacadja ; l'honorable Ali Camarou et sans oublier les quatre candidats titulaires et leurs suppléants.

Il est suivi par le 5ème arrondissement de Cotonou, qui a fait des percées remarquables avec aussi 65% de voix obtenues. Ce résultat a été réalisé grâce au seul leader et chef d'Arrondissement sortant, et seul candidat titulaire aux municipales, Parfait Dekoun. Cette percées est aussi le fruit des efforts fournis par le 1er suppléant aux législatives sur la liste de l'UP-R et la seule candidate suppléante aux communales. Malgré la présence sur la liste des partis adverses, de six fils de l'arrondissement, candidats aux élections législatives, dont deux têtes de liste : le seul député rescapé du parti Les Démocrates de la 15ème Circonscription Electorale, l'honorable Gafari Adéchokan et son suppléant qui sont 1er titulaire et 1er suppléant sur la liste du parti Les Démocrates ; et la 1ère titulaire et la titulaire au poste féminin de la liste du BR, qui sont ressortissants du 5ème arrondissement.

En troisième position, le 4ème arrondissement de Cotonou a raflé 62% des suffrages exprimés, grâce à l'effort constant et à la maîtrise de son territoire, du chef d'arrondissement sortant, Saliou Adédjouma, et du député de la 15ème Circonscription Electorale, l'honorable Délonix Kogblévi appuyés par les deux candidats aux communales et leurs suppléants, sans oublier dame Marie da Silva.

Voici les résultats obtenus par ordre de performances proportionnelles de voix obtenues par rapport aux suffrages exprimées :
1er Arrondissement ;13ème Arrondissement ; 8ème Arrondissement ; 11ème Arrondissement ; 7ème Arrondissement ; 12ème Arrondissement ; 6ème Arrondissement ; 3ème Arrondissement et 10ème Arrondissement.
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Ce mardi 27 janvier 2026, la Commission électorale nationale autonome (CENA) a proclamé les résultats des élections communales du 11 janvier 2026 au Bénin. A Bohicon, dans le département du Zou, le parti Union progressiste le renouveau (UP-R), renverse la tendance et prend désormais le contrôle du Conseil communal avec 22 sièges, contre 07 pour le Bloc républicain (BR), qui a dirigé la commune ces 5 dernières années.
A l'échelle nationale, l'UP-R selon les résultats de la CENA, pourra avoir le contrôle de 39 Conseils communaux, contre 38 pour le BR.

F. A. A.

Photos

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On January 27, 2026, the International Peace Institute (IPI) hosted its annual Peacekeeping Observatory workshop, in partnership with the French Ministry of the Armed Forces’ Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS). This year’s workshop focused on mission transitions. Participants included member state representatives, UN personnel, and independent experts.

The first session provided an opportunity to take stock of the UN Transitions Project, which concluded in 2025. Comprising the UN Development Coordination Office (DCO), the Department of Peace Operations (DPO), the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), and the UN Development Program (UNDP), the project, which started in 2014, provided direct support to countries undergoing transitions and contributed to the development of UN Secretariat guidance on transitions. In addition to reflecting on the conclusions and practices that emerged from the project, participants considered how the political landscape on transitions has changed since the adoption of Security Council resolution 2594. The discussion emphasized the importance of ensuring flexibility and coherence in transition planning while sustaining political engagement with host governments. Experts discussed opportunities for sustaining efforts on critical tasks, such as the protection of civilians during and after transitions through integrated planning with UN country teams and leveraging financing mechanisms like the Peacebuilding Fund.

The second session focused on critical challenges from the field in current and recent transition settings. Much of the discussion centered on responses to accelerated withdrawals and transitions in crisis settings, drawing on the experience of MINUSMA. Participants discussed ways to address challenges related to financing gaps, knowledge and capacity transfer, and sustaining political engagement in volatile contexts. Experts also reflected on the importance of strategic communications in transition planning and in managing public information and awareness, especially around mandate renewals, transitions, and/or reconfigurations of the UN presence.

During a working lunch, participants were briefed by the co-facilitators of the recently concluded 2025 peacebuilding architecture review (PBAR), including reflections on the role that the UN Peacebuilding Commission and the Peacebuilding Fund can play in transition contexts. The ensuing discussion focused on funding challenges for peacebuilding, obstacles to the implementation of the PBAR, and the willingness of member states to engage with the peacebuilding architecture.

The final session considered potential future transitions and how they can be informed by key takeaways from the workshop. Participants discussed the need for missions to have exit strategies from the beginning while anticipating different scenarios, the importance of engaging host states authorities, civil society and local communities in transition processes, the relevance of transition benchmarks, and challenges and opportunities for developing networked approaches to multilateralism.

As part of its Peacekeeping Observatory series, IPI will also publish three issue briefs in 2026 on UN mission transitions, including:

• The role of strategic communications in mission transitions, by Albert Trithart
• Accelerated withdrawals and transitions in crisis settings, by Dirk Druet
• Women, peace, and security and transitions, by Lauren McGowan and Evyn Papworth

The post IPI Peacekeeping Observatory Series on Mission Transitions appeared first on International Peace Institute.