Africa

Sam. 20 déc. 2025 de 20h00 à 21h15
Espace Toots, Rue Edouard Stuckens, Evere, Belgique

- Agenda / Bosnie-Herzégovine, Belgique et Luxembourg

A snowy Christmas might be something that fades into a memory in many places if we don't avoid severe climate change. Credit: Shutterstock

By Philippe Benoit
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 15 2025 (IPS)

As each Christmas approaches, one song permeates the airwaves across the United States and elsewhere: White Christmas. According to the Guiness Book of World Records, “White Christmas” is the #1 selling physical single of all times with over 50 million copies sold.

Many know those iconic opening lyrics:

“I’m dreaming of a white Christmas,
Just like the ones I used to know.”

This American holiday classic, written by Irving Berlin and recorded by Bing Crosby in 1942 during the depths of World War II, conveyed in its time the nostalgia of a simpler past and the hope for a better future.

But contexts change and, with them, so can meanings. Today, we face a new and different type of global menace, severe climate change which, according to a recent World Economic Forum report, could result in an additional 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses by 2050.

What might soon stand out most about the lyrics of White Christmas is the nostalgia for an earlier period when there was actually snow on the ground in late December, an experience which is now projected to become rarer in many regions because of climate change.

Obviously, not this December 2025 in the United States which is living through the blistering cold of a polar vortex. But other parts of the globe are seeing their warmest December in decades amidst what is set to be the world’s second hottest year on record as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations driven by greenhouse gas emissions track upwards, altering our climate.

And while there may be Christmas snow on the ground in 2026 or 2027 or 2028, that would, according to current climate predictions, become rarer and rarer over the medium to longer term. A snowy Christmas might be something that fades into a memory in many places if we don’t avoid severe climate change.

As a result, the song White Christmas presently conveys a new message. Those lyrics originally written to invoke a feeling of nostalgia and hope should now be read more literally. “I am dreaming of a white Christmas, just like the ones I used to know” is a warning about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the aberrations and destruction that severe climate change would cause.

White Christmas, this holiday classic from the past, should today be heard as a clarion call for climate change action.

Philippe Benoit is managing director at Global Infrastructure Advisory Services 2050 specializing in climate change.

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Currently, more than half of all countries and areas worldwide have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Credit: Shutterstock

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Dec 15 2025 (IPS)

Will low fertility rates return to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman any time soon? A simple answer to this vital demographic question is: unlikely.

A detailed answer about future fertility rates involves the complex interaction of various economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors that influence fertility levels.

Among those factors are economic insecurity, financial pressures, marriage rates, childbearing ages, child mortality levels, contraceptive use, higher education, labor force participation, lifestyle choices, personal goals, concerns about the future, and finding a suitable spouse or partner for family life.

During the recent past, the world’s fertility rate declined significantly from 5.3 births per woman in 1963 to 2.3 births in 2023.

Currently, more than half of all countries and areas worldwide have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Among these low fertility countries are the world’s ten largest national economies (Figure 1).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In contrast to countries with low fertility rates, sub-Saharan African countries have high fertility rates. Together these countries account for about one-third of the world’s current annual births, with that proportion projected to increase to nearly 40% by the mid-century.

Currently, two dozen countries in sub-Saharan Africa have fertility rates of 4 or more births per woman, with half of them having rates of 5 or more births per woman. Some of these countries, such as Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia, have the world’s highest fertility rates at about 6 births per woman (Figure 2).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In countries with low fertility, many young adults choose to prioritize economic security over starting a family. This shift in priorities reflects the financial burden that comes with household expenses, such as housing, food, transportation, childcare, and education.

The average annual costs of raising a child can vary significantly from country to country because of differences in income, family structures, living expenses, and government subsidies. However, couples generally perceive raising children as a challenging and costly endeavor, given the expenses associated with housing, food, childcare, and education.

Besides the increasing age at which couples are choosing to marry, there has been a global decline in early childbearing. In more developed regions and in many less developed countries, such as China and India, the mean age of childbearing has risen by approximately three years since 1995.

Decreases in teenage pregnancies have also played a role in contributing to low fertility rates in many countries. For example, between 1994 and 2024, the worldwide adolescent birth rate declined from 74 to 38 births per 1,000 females aged 15 to 19 years.

Considering recent global trends and significant economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors, it appears unlikely that today’s low fertility rates will return to the replacement level any time soon

In addition to delaying childbearing, many women are having fewer babies, with a significant number choosing not to have children at all. Although figures vary by region and generation, childlessness levels are rising, with approximately 40% or more of women by age 30 in developed countries remaining childless.

Using contraceptive methods is another significant contributor to low fertility rates. Various contraceptive options are available to prevent unintended pregnancy, including temporary or reversible and permanent methods. Worldwide, about half of women of reproductive age in 2022 were estimated to be using contraceptives, with 90% of them using a modern contraceptive method.

Higher education and increased female labor force participation are two additional factors contributing to low fertility rates. These factors raise the opportunity costs of childbearing, encourage delayed marriage and childbearing, and shift personal life priorities to career and personal development.

Over the past fifty years, the enrollment of women in higher education has increased worldwide. Women currently make up the majority of higher education students in 114 countries, while men out-number women in 57 countries. With respect to earning a bachelor’s degree, women have reached parity with men.

In many low fertility countries, there has a notable rise in the number of women joining the workforce. This trend is clear in more developed nations, where the percentage of economically active women has seen a significant increase in recent times. For instance, in Spain, the proportion of women in the labor force has more than doubled over the last fifty years, growing from around one in four to over half.

Another major factor contributing to low fertility rates is the significant global declines in infant and child mortality. Over the past fifty years, the global infant mortality rate has decreased from approximately 90 deaths per 1,000 births to 27 deaths and the mortality rate of children under age 5 has decreased from 132 deaths per 1,000 live births to 36 deaths.

Because of low fertility rates, many countries are experiencing more deaths than births, resulting in negative rates of population growth. These sustained negative rates of population growth are leading to population decline and demographic ageing.

The governments of many low fertility countries are implementing pro-natalist policies, incentives, and programs to increase birth rates. While these policies and programs may have some success in increasing low fertility rates slightly, historical data show that once a fertility rate drops below the replacement level, particularly to 1.5 births per woman or less, it remains low.

Population projections for countries with low fertility rates do not expect a return to the replacement level in the near future.

The world’s fertility rate is expected to continue declining throughout the 21st century. By 2100, the global fertility rate is projected to be below the replacement level at 1.8 births per woman.

The country population projections made by national governments and international organizations assume that fertility rates will remain below the replacement level. Consequently, many countries are projected to experience population decline by the mid-century (Figure 3).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In 50 countries and areas, immigration is expected to help reduce the projected population decline caused by low fertility rates. However, without international migration, some countries, like Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are also projected to see a decrease in population by 2050.

While many countries are experiencing a demographic struggle over international migration, the proportions of immigrants in these countries are reaching record highs. In the European Union, for example, the proportion of the foreign-born population is about 14%, a significant increase from 10% in 2010.

Similarly, in the United States, the foreign-born proportion is at a record high of nearly 16%, several times greater than the low of 5% in 1970. Additionally, in Canada, the foreign-born proportion has risen to a record high of close to a quarter of its population, surpassing the previous record of 22% in 1921. Australia also has a significant foreign-born population, especially recently from India and China, reaching close to a third of its population, substantially higher than the 24% in 2004.

Along with population declines, coupled in many instances with increased immigration, countries are also experiencing demographic ageing. The once youthful populations of the recent past are now being replaced by much older populations with increasing proportions of these individuals in retirement. Once again, as with population decline, the projected populations of many countries by the middle of the century would be older without international migration (Figure 4).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In summary, considering recent global trends and significant economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors, it appears unlikely that today’s low fertility rates will return to the replacement level any time soon.

As a result, ongoing low fertility rates are leading to population decline, demographic ageing, and, in many instances, the politically contentious issue of increased levels of the foreign-born population. Instead of hoping for a return to the demographics of the recent past, countries need to recognize the probable future demographics and confront the many challenges that arise from them.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population matters.

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By Reylynne Dela Paz
MANILA, Philippines, Dec 15 2025 (IPS)

A global crackdown on civic freedoms is intensifying – and women are on the frontlines of the attack. CIVICUS’s 2025 People Power Under Attack report analyses the extent to which freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly are being respected or violated. The report reveals that people in 83 countries now live in conditions where their freedoms are routinely denied, compared to 67 in 2020. In 2020, 13 per cent of the world’s population lived in countries where civic freedoms were broadly respected; now it’s more like 7 per cent. Among the most documented violations in 2025 were detention of human rights defenders, journalists and protesters, and women human rights defenders (WHRDs) were among the most affected.

Reylynne Dela Paz

Women human rights defenders in the spotlight

WHRDs are women and girls, in all their diversity, working on any human rights issue, and those who promote women’s and girls’ rights and gender justice. They include people in civil society who might not self-identify as human rights defenders and those who work in fields such as environmental activism, humanitarian response, journalism and peacebuilding.

WHRDs are at a higher risk of being discriminated against and abused not only for what they do, but also because of who they are. By virtue of their gender identity, they challenge societal norms and patriarchal structures. The 2025 People Power Under Attack report, for example, documents numerous examples of online intimidation and threats against women journalists, both because of their journalistic work and because they’re women.

Attacks against women and girls in general and WHRDs in particular are increasingly being fuelled by rising authoritarian rule, fundamentalism and populism. Governments, politicians and non-state groups are taking more confident and strident anti-rights actions, fuelling an environment where repression and violence against WHRDs is not only possible but celebrated.

Anti-rights networks, led by populist politicians and fundamentalist religious groups, are engaging in coordinated, sustained and increasingly influential work to stigmatise campaigns for women’s rights and gender justice and those involved in them. They spread the idea that gender justice and those who strive for it threaten children’s welfare, families, religious beliefs, national security and traditional and cultural norms. They’re manipulating public narratives and weaponising disinformation to gain public support.

This has given rise to decreased support for HIV prevention projects, queer movements, sexual, reproductive health and rights initiatives, women’s and girls’ participation in decision-making spaces and any human rights effort led by women, including those on climate and environmental justice, disability, Indigenous rights and peace and security.

CIVICUS’s Stand As My Witness Campaign, which calls for the release of unjustly detained human rights defenders, shows how brutal the current context is for WHRDs. It documents stories of violent arrests, inhumane treatment and other cruel actions against women who have dedicated their lives to pursuing justice and resisting repressive governments. WHRDs Pakhshan Azizi, Sharifeh Mohammadi and Verisheh Moradi are facing death sentences in Iran. Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian human rights activist and journalist who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2023, has also been imprisoned repeatedly for her work.

Other WHRDs who have been arbitrarily arrested include Chow Hang-Tung from Hong Kong, who advocated for the protection and promotion of labour rights and the rights of persecuted human rights defenders in mainland China, Marfa Rabkova, coordinator of Viasna Center for Human Rights’ network of volunteers in Belarus, Kenia Hernandez, coordinator of Zapata Vive, a peasant movement that defends land rights in Mexico, and Hoda Abdel Moneim, a human rights lawyer from Egypt.

I know a mother who helped farmers learn about their rights but was falsely accused of illegally possessing firearms. She was dragged from her house carrying her newborn child. I recall an old woman who has spent her days helping empower Indigenous people but who was harshly arrested and denied medical treatment while in jail, a trans woman who joined a protest and was arrested for no other reason than being a trans protester, and a girl activist who was harassed online for sharing her thoughts against child marriage.

Beyond commemoration

These few painful stories represent only a fraction of reality. The problem is systemic. The world is dominated by cowardly rulers who draw confidence and power from dominant systems of patriarchy and support from anti-rights networks. The restriction of freedoms online and offline make it more difficult and dangerous to hold those in power accountable.

The intensifying repression of civic space, as documented in People Power Under Attack, demands coordinated and sustained action to defend and support the work of activists, human rights defenders and journalists. Increasing threats against WHRDs demand a proactive response to dismantle the gender discriminatory norms and patriarchal rules that underpin and enable human rights violations.

There’s a great need for intersectional protection mechanisms and gender transformative responses from national, regional and international human rights institutions. It’s time for policies that protect human rights defenders but also recognise the distinct needs and lived experiences of WHRDs in all their diversity.

Multilateral institutions should hold member states to account for the international commitments they have made. Regional and global intergovernmental institutions should invest in closely monitoring the situation of WHRDs and in protecting them, and hold perpetrators accountable for abuses. There should be increased investment and coordinated efforts to promote gender justice as part of human rights and respond to the disinformation and false narratives being spread online by governments and the private sector.

The Sustainable Development Goals, backed by all states when they were agreed in 2015, recognise gender equality as a fundamental part of achieving sustainable development, yet little effort has gone into ensuring the people who strive for this are safe and able to work. Women and girls play a vital role in the pursuit of peace and justice, but they increasingly suffer. They don’t need to be merely recognised and remembered: they need to be protected and supported in the face of growing attacks.

Reylynne Dela Paz is Advocacy Lead at CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation.

 

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Alicia Villamizar presents the findings of the Second Academic Report on Climate Change. Credit: Margaret López/IPS

By Margaret López
CARACAS, Dec 15 2025 (IPS)

A group of 55 researchers gathered and analyzed 1,260 bibliographic references to compile the Second Academic Report on Climate Change in Venezuela. Their final conclusion is that more local studies are still needed to record the direct impacts across different Venezuelan regions and, in particular, to provide data to design the adaptation plans necessary to address climate change.

“Vulnerability varies greatly across the country. If an adaptation policy is to be defined, it cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach. Adaptation is tailor-made, which is why local data is so important,” warned Alicia Villamizar, general coordinator of the research carried out by the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Acfiman), in an interview with IPS.

The review of scientific papers, university research, books, global reports, and specialized databases on the impacts of climate change took four full years.

This research involved professionals from 25 different institutions, including the Universidad Central de Venezuela (UCV) and Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB). It was presented at the Palace of Academies in early December.

The researchers highlighted the lack of historical and recent data on changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise at the local level, three key elements for understanding climate change in the country.

They also reported the lack of scientific studies on the risk assessment of heat waves, droughts, and forest fires for different climate scenarios in Venezuela. Nor did they identify any recent research on the genetic improvement of crops to safeguard the country’s food security following changes in national temperature.

Corals Affected by High Temperatures

Among the findings of the report that are noteworthy is that Venezuela’s average temperature increased by 0.22°C per decade between 1980 and 2015.

The southern part of Lake Maracaibo (Zulia), the Paraguaná Peninsula (Falcón), and the western plains (Apure, Barinas, and Portuguesa), all located in western Venezuela, were the areas most affected by this temperature increase, which provides evidence of climate change.

Villamizar, coordinator of the first chapter of the report and researcher at the Institute of Zoology and Tropical Ecology at the UCV, highlighted the impact that this temperature increase had on Venezuelan coral reefs.

“There is not a single coral reef that has not been affected,” said Villamizar, a specialist in the study of marine ecosystems, during the public presentation of the results in Caracas.

Higher sea temperatures are another factor that has allowed the rapid expansion of the soft coral Unomia stolonifera in Venezuelan waters. This invasive species arrived from the Indian Ocean to the coasts of Anzoátegui and Sucre in eastern Venezuela and also to the waters of Aragua in the center of the country.

It is estimated that half of the seabed of Mochima National Park (Anzoátegui) is already covered with this soft coral, according to a report by the civil association Unomia Project.

The death of native corals in this area is a consequence of the colonization of this invasive species, which has been favored by climate change conditions. The rapid expansion of Unomia stolonifera also affects starfish, sponges, and marine worms.

More Economic Risks

The research also highlighted that climate change contributed to a reduction of between 0.97 percent and 1.30 percent in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) between 2010 and 2020, partly due to rising temperatures and increased rainfall.

Venezuela faced, for example, more than 20 flooding events between 2000 and 2019. The most direct consequences of these floods resulted in economic losses valued at more than USD 1 billion.

The GDP projection, in fact, is that Venezuela will lose another 10 points by 2030, due to rising sea levels that threaten port infrastructure, fishing activities, and tourism.

“The substantial value of this Second Academic Report is that it offers invaluable information for those who make decisions on city and national issues,” said biologist Joaquín Benítez, who did not participate in the study and gave his opinion on the findings in an interview with IPS.

The main challenge with climate change in Venezuela, not surprisingly, is to get more attention from the government. The country still does not have a national law on climate change, a national climate strategy, or a national plan for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

That is why Villamizar repeated during the presentation that her goal is for this scientific report “not to remain confined to academia,” but rather to serve as a catalyst for more local scientific research and to strengthen the institutional muscle in charge of directing climate adaptation in Venezuela.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Digitalization is transforming how we learn, work and participate in civic life. UNDP is supporting countries seeking to ensure that digital systems empower people and uphold their rights. Credit: UNDP Trinidad and Tobago

By Daria Asmolova, Arindrajit Basu and Roqaya Dhaif
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 15 2025 (IPS)

Within a generation, digital systems have changed much of how we learn, work and participate in civic life, especially in more connected regions. This shift is unfolding at different speeds in developing countries, but the direction of travel is unmistakable.

The question countries face today isn’t whether digital development should happen, but how to ensure that digital systems empower individuals and communities, upholding everyone’s rights.

As countries deepen their digital transitions, ensuring that rights protections keep pace becomes a shared challenge. UNDP’s Digital Rights Dashboard (DRD) is designed to help clarify that landscape and serves as an essential first step toward deeper inquiry and action on protecting human rights in a digital world.

Why the Digital Rights Dashboard?

UNDP’s Digital Development Compass and Digital Readiness Assessment already help countries understand where they stand in their digital journey. Yet one critical dimension needed sharper focus: how countries are set up to protect human rights in the digital space.

The DRD fills that gap by examining four essential rights online: freedom of opinion and expression, freedom of assembly and association, equality and non-discrimination, and privacy. It also explores cross-cutting factors like connectivity and rule of law, the foundations that make all online rights possible.

The DRD provides a structured framework for assessing the policies, regulations, and enabling environments that shape digital rights across over 140 countries. It does not rank or evaluate countries. Instead, it serves as a catalyst for dialogue among governments, civil society, international organizations, and development partners to identify gaps and work together on solutions.

The DRD follows the methodology of the Digital Development Compass, one requirement of which is data coverage of at least 135 countries, the most challenging constraint. Comprehensive data on digital rights remains limited, making it difficult to fully capture how well environments are structured to protect rights in practice.

To address this fragmentation of data, we developed the Digital Rights Foundations database as an additional data source for the DRD. Another challenge is that legal and policy frameworks do not always reflect realities on the ground.

For example, the existence of a data protection law or hate speech regulation does not guarantee enforcement; laws may be unevenly applied, and important processes such as public consultations and participatory policy design often fall outside what indicators can capture.
For these reasons, we recommend using the DRD as an entry point, a tool that highlights where deeper national analysis and dialogue are needed, rather than a definitive assessment of digital rights protections.

What we learned from five pilot countries

To test its practical application and assess how well it could guide rights-based digital development conversations in diverse contexts, UNDP piloted the DRD in Colombia, Lebanon, Mauritania, North Macedonia, and Samoa. The findings illustrate the importance of country-driven digital rights dialogues.

Colombia—strong frameworks, evolving needs

The DRD reflects that Colombia has ratified key international conventions and established legislation to protect digital rights, including a data protection law. Yet consultations revealed areas where legislation—such as intelligence-related surveillance—could be further aligned with international human rights standards.

A strong multi-stakeholder approach to rights-based digital development emerged as a promising pathway. For example, civil society efforts to counter hate speech and UNDP’s support to digitalize justice services demonstrate how digital tools can strengthen equality and safety, particularly in conflict-affected regions.

Samoa—building rights into digitalization from the start

While still in the early stages of its rights-based digital development journey, Samoa is proactively engaging stakeholders to shape inclusive data governance and cybersecurity policies. Samoa is also integrating technology into its programmes to protect human rights, including the right to equality and non-discrimination.

Partnerships with organizations like the Samoa Victim’s Support Group, supported by UNDP, show how digital platforms (helplines, secure communication channels) can advance the right to equality and non-discrimination by protecting the rights of vulnerable groups, particularly women and survivors of domestic violence.

Lebanon—protecting digital rights amid crisis

Lebanon’s experience highlights the difficulties of upholding digital rights during conflict, where disruptions to connectivity and freedom of expression are impacted. Yet, safeguarding the foundations of digital rights can also bolster resilience to crisis, as it enables individuals and communities to maximize the opportunities of the digital space.

UNDP collaborated with the National Anti-Corruption Committee to implement its recent legislation on access to information by incorporating digital tools. This illustrates how transparency and the right to information, core elements of freedom of expression, can strengthen accountability even in fragile settings.

Moving forward: a starting point for collective action

Across all five pilot countries, one lesson was clear: rights-based digital development strengthens institutions, empowers communities, and builds trust in digital systems. The DRD has limitations, and more robust data will be needed as the field evolves, but it creates a shared understanding of where protections are strong and where gaps persist.

The pilots also show that countries and stakeholders do not need perfect metrics before taking action. By combining the DRD’s insights with national expertise, human rights reporting, and civil society perspectives, governments can begin shaping digital development that respects and protects human rights both online and offline.

Daria Asmolova is Digital Specialist, UNDP; Arindrajit Basu is Digital Rights Researcher, UNDP; &
Roqaya Dhaif is Human Rights Policy Specialist, UNDP

Source: UNDP

IPS UN Bureau

 

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