Africa

The death of the veteran politician is likely to alter the political landscape, analysts say.

Bosznia-Hercegovina kiutasított terrorizmussal kapcsolatba hozható két orosz állampolgárt - közölte hétfőn a külföldiekkel foglalkozó boszniai szolgálat.

They say the decision "runs contrary to the desired structural change" they were seeking.

Az utóbbi 4 hónapban 46 vírusos hepatitisz A fertőzést regisztráltak Tallósonó, beleértve a közeli Jegenyés roma telepet. A legutóbbi esetet október 15-én erősítették meg.

Written by Annastiina Papunen and Astrid Worum with Diogo Vieira Ferreira.

Only three weeks after the informal European Council meeting in Copenhagen on 1 October 2025, EU leaders will reconvene to continue their discussions on defence as well as Ukraine. On defence, the leaders’ main focus will be on the new Roadmap on European Defence Readiness 2030 and on addressing immediate threats on the eastern flank. Regarding the war in Ukraine, they will continue their discussion on Russia’s frozen assets and on the 19th sanctions package against Russia. Another prominent topic at this meeting will be competitiveness, with special attention on simplification, the nexus of green transition and industrial renewal, as well as Europe’s digital sovereignty. Additional agenda points include the situation in the Middle East, housing and migration. Following the European Council meeting, EU leaders will convene for a Euro Summit focusing on the capital markets union, the international role of the euro and the digital euro initiative.

1.   General

As usual, the European Council will start with an address by the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola. In line with European Council President António Costa‘s new approach, the meeting is intended as a one-day event, but could extend to the next day if needed. Following parliamentary elections in Czechia, this meeting is expected to be the last one for Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

2.   European Council meeting Ukraine

In the context of intensified Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, notably against civilian and energy infrastructure, the European Council is expected to reiterate its unwavering political, financial, military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. EU leaders may have an exchange of views with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who could brief them on his disappointing visit to the US as regards the supply of missiles, and try to gather support ahead of the announced meeting in Budapest between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As indicated in Costa’s invitation letter, EU leaders will focus on financial support for Ukraine in the coming years and consider options for the use of up to €140 billion of Russia’s frozen assets for interest-free ‘reparation loans’ to Ukraine. While this plan is backed by a majority of EU Member States, some remain sceptical about the use of foreign assets, notably Belgium, host of Euroclear, and Luxembourg, who want further guarantees from the European Commission and the G7 that all partners would share the financial risk in case of lawsuits. A political decision at this European Council meeting would enable legislation to be put forward with a view to possibly starting payments in 2026. The meeting could also discuss burden-sharing within the G7 on a separate €45 billion loan scheme.

Determined to increase pressure on Russia, EU leaders will also need to find an agreement on the 19th sanctions package against Russia, which Slovakia continues to oppose; Austria has lifted its veto. The new package targets oil revenues, gas, banks, crypto-currencies and shadow fleets, with the EU and US aligning on measures to halt Russian oil purchases.

The European Council is also likely to discuss both i) ways of addressing Ukraine’s most pressing defence needs, notably air defence and drone systems, and ii) post-war security guarantees, to which the EU intends to contribute. In that context, it may welcome the ongoing revisions of the mandates of EUAM (EU civilian advisory mission in Ukraine) and EUMAM (European Union Military Assistance Mission Ukraine) to include cyber-defence and ‘strengthening Ukraine’s combat power by investing €2 billion in drones’. In addition, the European Council is likely to call on Russia and Belarus to ensure the safe return of forcefully deported Ukrainian children.

Finally, EU leaders could reiterate their support for Ukraine’s EU accession path and commend the progress achieved, with three clusters ready to be opened.

Middle East

Following the agreement reached on the initial phase of the peace plan between the Israelis and Palestinians proposed by President Trump and signed at the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace, EU leaders are likely to welcome the immediate release of the hostages held by Hamas and call for unimpeded humanitarian access to Gaza. President Costa, who attended the summit, commended the success of the peace plan and stressed that the EU ‘is fully committed to actively engage with all parties involved in the implementation of this Peace Plan’. He also noted that the EU ‘will expand our humanitarian assistance’ and ‘contribute to Gaza’s stabilisation and reconstruction’. In addition, EU leaders may call for de-escalation in the West Bank, notably in East Jerusalem, and an end to settler violence and to the expansion of illegal settlements. Finally, EU leaders are likely to reiterate their support for a two-state solution, in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions.

European defence and security

In the context of an evolving threat landscape, and following intense discussions on defence at their 1 October meeting, EU leaders will review progress on EU defence readiness initiatives aimed at closing critical capability gaps by 2030. The ‘Roadmap on European Defence Readiness 2030′, presented on 16 October by the High Representative/Vice-President and the Commission at the request of EU leaders, will feed into the discussion. It translates the White Paper/ReArm Europe into operational milestones and outlines four European flagship projects (Eastern Flank Watch, European Drone Wall, European Air Shield, and European Defence Space Shield), while aiming to strengthen the EU’s military industrial complex and boosting joint procurement to an ambitious 40 % of defence purchases by 2027. The roadmap also calls on Member States to form Capability Coalitions in nine key areas through joint development and procurement. Even if generally well received, certain countries such as France, Germany and Sweden have insisted that Member States remain sovereign in their national defence – a point strongly underlined by the Commission in its proposal.

Following repeated violations of European airspace in recent weeks, which require a united response, as stressed by the European Parliament, EU leaders could underline the need to address the immediate threat to European security on the Eastern flank as a priority. They may discuss ways of reinforcing cooperation between Member States as well as efforts to develop anti-drone and air defence capabilities. While calling for the strengthening of the European Defence Agency in the capabilities development process, the European Council is also likely to review progress on financing and investment in the field of defence, notably regarding the €150 billion SAFE financial instrument and the European defence industry programme (EDIP), on which an agreement between the co-legislators has been reached. 

Governance and oversight of defence readiness projects may also be raised, with a possible annual reporting system by defence ministers to the European Council to keep track of progress.

Competitiveness

Competitiveness has been a frequent agenda point during this legislative period, appearing in all regular European Council meetings, except for that of December 2024. The April 2024 special meeting conclusions, the Letta report, the strategic agenda, the Draghi report, the November 2024 Budapest declaration and the March 2025 conclusions have all fed into the discussion. At their October meeting, EU leaders are expected to focus on three themes: i) simplification, ii) strategic debate on the climate objectives for 2040 and iii) Europe’s digital sovereignty.

Costa’s invitation letter stressed that the EU needed to ‘step up’ its efforts to deliver on simplification. The Budapest declaration had already called for a ‘simplification revolution’ to ensure ‘a clear, simple and smart regulatory framework for businesses and drastically reducing administrative, regulatory and reporting burdens, in particular for SMEs’. The work on the ‘Omnibus’ simplification packages is ongoing, but EU leaders may call for further efforts.

At the request of six Member States (France, Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and Latvia), EU leaders will discuss the EU’s 2040 climate targets, which will determine the 2035 intermediate target to be submitted to the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. Currently, the Council has only agreed on a ‘declaration of intent’, setting a range for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Back in June, ahead of the presentation of the ‘European Climate Law’, EU leaders had discussed the issue – which was not on the agenda – at length, as certain Member States feared the impact of the transition to carbon neutrality on EU competitiveness and industry. Thus, EU leaders are expected to approach the climate topic from a strong competitiveness perspective, calling for decarbonisation as a vector for industrial renewal, a notable change of approach.

The agenda point on Europe’s digital sovereignty is expected to repeat many points that have been discussed in previous meetings, including the importance of advancing digital transformation, strengthening sovereignty and basing digital policies and solutions on EU values and interests. Interestingly, EU leaders may also mention EU regulatory autonomy in digital issues, which has been brought up recently in connection with US trade negotiations.

Housing

EU house prices have increased by 60.5 % and rents by 28.8 % on average from 2010 to 2025. This rise has generated financial difficulties for many EU citizens, especially as prices of many everyday items and utilities have also increased over the same period. As mentioned in the Leaders’ Agenda, EU leaders are expected to discuss the situation and support (additional) measures at European level to help improve access to affordable and decent housing. The European Council may also request the Commission to swiftly publish the European Affordable Housing Plan, currently under preparation. The European Parliament has set up a special committee to look into the EU housing crisis.

Migration

EU leaders will review the implementation of their June 2025 conclusions on migration, many of which are currently being discussed by the co-legislators, notably the return of irregular migrants and the mutual recognition of return decisions. As has been the usual format in recent European Council meetings, the discussions will be informed by a letter from the European Commission President. The elephant in the room is the migration pact which was adopted in 2024. Some EU leaders call for rapid implementation of the migration pact (e.g. Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden), while others, such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, have stated that they will not implement the pact, even claiming that they had got an exemption.

Although the number of irregular migrants has fallen by 20 % in 2025, in October 2025 nine Member States (Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Sweden and the Netherlands) were still carrying out long-term temporary internal border controls.

Other points Republic of Moldova

EU leaders will address the recent elections in Moldova, pledging their continued support for the country’s resilience and stability. They may reiterate Moldova’s accession path and acknowledge the significant progress achieved so far, inviting the Council and the Commission to take work forward, in line with the merit-based approach.

Pact for the Mediterranean

It is likely that EU leaders will welcome the new Pact for the Mediterranean, announced in the political guidelines 2024-2029 and published on 16 October 2025.

3.   Euro Summit

The second Euro Summit of the year (the first one was in March 2025) will take place in inclusive format (with non-euro-area countries attending) on the same day as the regular European Council meeting. As usual, the current economic situation will be discussed with Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Ahead of the meeting, Donohoe sent Costa a letter outlining themes currently important for the euro area, such as the capital markets union, the international role of the euro and the digital euro initiative.

Read the complete briefing on ‘Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders, 23 October 2025‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

Nicolas Sarkozy, president from 2007-2012, has appealed against his jail term at La Santé prison.

The airport, out of action since war broke out two years ago, was due to reopen on Wednesday.

Global forests remain in crisis, a new report says. Credit: Dirk Erasmus/Unsplash

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, Oct 21 2025 (IPS)

The Forest Declaration Assessment 2025 warns that global forest loss remains alarmingly high, with little sign of improvement.

The report, released on October 14, by a coalition of international research groups and civil society organizations, states that nearly 8.1 million hectares of forest were destroyed in 2024 alone, leaving the planet 63 percent off track to meet the zero-deforestation goal pledged under the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration and other global commitments.

The report describes 2025 as a “dangerous midpoint” in the decade of forest pledges. It says, “Global forests remain in crisis. Despite the indispensable role of forests, the verdict is clear: we are off track on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030.” Forests, the report notes, are “non-negotiable infrastructure for a stable planet,” providing livelihoods to more than a billion people and sheltering 80 percent of terrestrial species.

The report says COP 30 is a “pivotal” opportunity to move to concrete action on forests from the mere commitments.

Under Brazil’s leadership, holding the COP presidency, countries are expected to forge stronger links between climate, forests, and biodiversity by expanding commitments across the land sector,” the report states, adding that this includes scaling innovative finance for standing forests, advancing deforestation- and conversion-free supply chains, supporting resilient food systems, and upholding the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

It calls for forest commitments to be embedded in the next round of NDCs so that the Global Stocktake drives tangible national and international progress.

One of the main report authors, Erin Matson, in an exclusive interview with Inter Press Service, said that the reasons behind the failure to reduce deforestation are many and complex, but they include drastically misaligned finance stemming from an economic system that rewards activities that harm forests over conserving standing forests.

“Both public and private finance are misaligned; for example, USD 409 billion on average per year (2021-2023) is spent globally on environmentally harmful agricultural subsidies versus only USD 1.7 billion spent on payments for ecosystem services by agricultural producers. And in 2024, the 150 financial institutions assessed by Forest 500 had USD 8.9 trillion in active financing to companies most exposed to deforestation risk in their supply chains.”

According to Matson, weak governance is characterized by endemic corruption (which allows well-resourced criminal networks and elites to profit from illegal or illicit forest destruction with impunity), inadequate and mistargeted law enforcement (which often targets small-scale actors who engage in illegal or illicit forest clearing but lets the bigger culprits go free), and insecure land tenure rights for Indigenous Peoples and local communities (which severely limits their ability to manage and protect their forest territories).

“Another reason is lack of political will and short-termism. By and large, most leaders in government, business, and finance have, over the last decade, tended to prioritize policies and approaches that deliver short-term wins (like economic growth and increased profits) without tackling the fundamental risks and harms from nature loss that undermine future, medium- and long-term economic and social stability and prosperity,” Matson said.

Rising Losses, Failing Promises

According to the assessment, deforestation rates have barely shifted since 2015, when governments and companies began making strong commitments to forest protection. The 8.1 million hectares lost in 2024 were far above the annual ceiling of 5 million hectares needed to stay on track. Most of this destruction occurred in tropical regions, where 94 percent of all global deforestation took place. The resulting emissions were staggering—4.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents, more than the annual emissions of the European Union.

“Every year the curve isn’t bent, we fall further behind. Deforestation continues at the same rate we saw ten years ago. That’s not a slowdown—it’s stagnation,” reads the report.

The hardest hit were primary tropical forests, which store vast amounts of carbon and support irreplaceable biodiversity. About 6.7 million hectares of primary forest were destroyed in 2024, releasing 3.1 billion metric tons of CO₂—nearly 150 percent of the U.S. energy sector’s annual emissions. The report calls this “an ecological and climatic emergency” and warns that much of this loss is irreversible.

“These forests take centuries to form. Once primary forest is gone, no restoration project can bring it back in a generation. The damage is permanent within our lifetime,” claims the report.

The Amazon Basin remains the epicenter of global forest degradation and fire-related emissions. Fires in the Amazon in 2024 released 791 million metric tons of CO₂, exceeding the total emissions of Germany. Bolivia lost 9 percent of its remaining intact tropical moist forests, while Brazil accounted for half of all degradation in the Amazon Basin.

Agriculture Drives Most Forest Loss

The report identifies permanent agriculture as the leading cause of deforestation, responsible for 86 percent of global forest loss over the past decade. Forests are being cleared for crops, pastureland, and plantation commodities like palm oil, soy, and rubber. Mining, infrastructure expansion, and land speculation add further pressure.

Domestic consumption is a major factor. For instance, in Latin America, the region’s consumption of beef and pasture products is the primary cause of deforestation.

In contrast, deforestation in Asia and Africa is tied to a broader range of export commodities. Recent studies cited in the report show that developed nations, especially the United States and several European countries, drive substantial biodiversity loss abroad through imported goods. Between 2000 and 2015, the 24 most industrialized countries caused an estimated 13 percent of global forest biodiversity loss through international trade.

The assessment also notes that “corruption, weak law enforcement, and poor land tenure systems” contribute significantly to deforestation. These governance failures allow illegal land grabs and unregulated clearing, undermining conservation efforts.

According to Matson,  commodity-driven deforestation is complex because it is caused by several factors, including patterns of commodity demand, both for domestic consumption and international trade; trade regulations and tariffs that can shift commodity production areas and flows; domestic land use dynamics like land speculation, where the value of land is considered to increase once forest has been cleared; and weak law enforcement (69-94% of tropical deforestation is estimated to be illegal).

“To change this pattern, we need multiple actions that would complement each other. An investment in just, equitable, and responsive law enforcement to tackle illegal deforestation and make it unprofitable to clear land illegally. Trade regulations that disallow the import of commodities produced on land deforested after a certain date (like 2020), combined with investments in traceability systems and due diligence regulations to ensure that these regulations can be enforced,” she said.

Matson pitched for the adoption and enforcement of due diligence regulations to address deforestation related to domestic consumption of commodities.

“We need efforts and campaigns that aim to shift consumption patterns, where culturally appropriate, for example, reducing meat consumption in high-income, high-consuming countries, shifting to plant-based proteins, and shifting to consumption of certified deforestation-free commodities.”

Fires and Degradation Multiply the Threat

While deforestation removes entire forests, degradation weakens those that remain. In 2024, about 8.8 million hectares of tropical moist forests were degraded, twice the level compatible with halting degradation by 2030. The report calls degradation an “invisible crisis,” often overlooked in policy debates but just as damaging to biodiversity and climate stability.

Fire-induced degradation, particularly in the Amazon, was the primary driver of these losses. Extreme droughts, poor forest management, and deliberate burning for land clearing have made fires more destructive.

As per the report, the Amazon burned on a scale we haven’t seen in decades. These fires are no longer isolated events—they are symptoms of a stressed ecosystem pushed beyond its limits.

The report warns that degraded forests are far more likely to be deforested later, creating a cycle of decline. Data from Latin America, Africa, and Asia shows that once canopy cover falls below 50 percent, the risk of full deforestation rises sharply.

Degradation is a red flag. The report says that when forests start losing structure, deforestation often follows.

Monitoring degradation remains a major challenge due to limited global data. Most national reporting focuses only on tree cover loss, not on forest health or ecosystem function. The report urges governments to integrate degradation indicators into climate and biodiversity frameworks.

“We consider forest degradation a ‘silent crisis’ because forest degradation is extremely widespread and damaging to forest health and resilience, but it often goes unnoticed because it’s harder to detect and track than deforestation. Unlike deforestation, there is no globally agreed definition or standardized monitoring approach for forest degradation. Countries reporting to the FAO’s Forest Resources Assessment can set their own national definitions under the FRA 2025 guidance. This makes it difficult to compare data across regions or to capture the cumulative impacts of logging, fires, and other disturbances on forest quality,” Matson said.

She added that other frameworks have encouraged countries to set forest degradation definitions and monitoring criteria, such as REDD+—so the countries where degradation monitoring is most advanced are the ones that have advanced REDD+ programs.

“Where there are incentives to accurately monitor and report degradation, systems do improve. Forest degradation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and also impacts biodiversity, so countries should set relevant targets, as a first step, within their NDCs (nationally determined contributions) and in their NBSAPs (national biodiversity strategies and action plans),” Matson said.

Restoration Efforts Show Potential, But Lag Behind

Despite grim trends, the assessment highlights some positive developments. As of September 2025, restoration projects were active across 10.6 million hectares of deforested and degraded land. These efforts include reforestation, agroforestry, and natural regeneration programs, mostly in tropical regions.

However, the figure represents only 0.3 percent of the global forest restoration potential, far below the 30 percent target set under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Monitoring continues to be another area of weakness. Much of the available data comes from fragmented or overlapping sources, such as the Restor database and national observatories. The report warns that without unified global tracking, restoration progress will remain poorly understood.

The assessment calls for broader monitoring under the UN’s Framework for Ecosystem Restoration Monitoring (FERM), which combines quantitative data with qualitative information on project effectiveness and local participation. Governance and Finance Gaps Persist.

The report stresses that progress depends on systemic shifts, not isolated successes. While countries like Brazil have reduced deforestation through strong enforcement and inclusive land-use planning, others have seen gains erased by political change or weak implementation.

Financing for forest protection and restoration remains grossly inadequate. The report finds that forest-positive finance is still a fraction of the funds supporting activities that harm forests, such as fossil fuel subsidies and industrial agriculture. It calls for reforming financial systems to redirect capital toward sustainable land use.

The assessment also highlights that Indigenous and local communities remain underrepresented in forest decision-making, despite managing some of the world’s most intact ecosystems. Expanding legal recognition of land rights and ensuring community participation are described as “non-negotiable conditions” for progress.

“Like most topics covered in the report, barriers to scaled-up restoration are complex and are mainly financial, governance-related, and structural. Restoration is often underfunded because returns are only realized over the long term, and ecological benefits—like carbon storage, water regulation, or biodiversity—are not fully valued in markets. Public funding for restoration tends to be short-term or project-based, while private finance shies away due to high perceived risks, unclear revenue models, or a simple lack of investable projects or initiatives,” said Matson.

She says that on the policy side, many countries lack clear land tenure, long-term incentives, and enabling frameworks for restoration at scale.

“Integrating restoration into national climate, biodiversity, and rural development plans—and aligning finance, tenure, and monitoring systems accordingly—would incentivize and corral collective action to develop overarching, landscape-scale restoration approaches that move beyond scattered, individual projects,” Matson said.

Deforestation and Market Dynamics

With only five years left before the 2030 deadline, the report states that incremental changes will not be enough. “This crisis cannot fade into the background noise,” it states. “Isolated successes will not save the world’s forests. We need structural reform that makes forest protection the rule, not the exception.”

Experts say that reversing current trends will require coordinated action across agriculture, trade, and finance. Governments must close legal loopholes that allow deforestation-linked products to enter markets. Companies must trace and disclose their supply chains. And international lenders must align funding with environmental goals.

“In the medium to long term, we need to make preserving and sustainably managing forests more attractive and more profitable than even legal deforestation. And that requires shifting the financial incentives—subsidy reform; establishing payments for keeping standing forests standing, like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility; and increasing payments for ecosystem services programs for farmers and foresters,” Matson said. “A lot of deforestation is highly responsive to market dynamics—when the price of gold goes up, we see much more deforestation for gold mining. So, counterbalancing those harmful financial incentives with positive ones must be a part of any permanent solution to the deforestation crisis.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

Closing legal loopholes that allow deforestation-linked products to enter markets and getting international lenders to align funding with environmental goals are key to ending deforestation, says Erin Matson, one of the lead authors of the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025.

Tuesday 21 October

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

In today’s edition: Europe’s dependence on the US grows as Trump shapes foreign policy from afar, Bulgaria opens its skies for Putin ahead of the Budapest summit, and the Commission begins quietly dismantling the Green Deal under political pressure

Higher income and fintech expansion boosted credit growth, even as monetary policy remained effective. Credit: IMF

By Swarnali A. Hannan, Daniel Leigh, and Rui Xu
WASHINGTON DC, Oct 21 2025 (IPS)

At 15 percent, Brazil’s monetary policy interest rate (called Selic) is one of the highest among major economies. Yet in 2024, bank credit grew by 11.5 percent and corporate bond issuance rose by 30 percent.

This credit expansion—in the face of high policy rates—benefited many individuals, households, and companies. But it also raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy itself. In other words, why did the central bank’s efforts to cool down the economy, by making financing more expensive, seem not to be working?

Our analysis, in the context of Brazil’s latest yearly economic review (the Article IV consultation), shows that concerns have been largely unwarranted and that monetary policy transmission in Brazil remains effective. Indeed, recent data indicates that credit growth is starting to slow down.

So, what exactly has been happening?

Even as monetary policy was doing its job as intended, we saw two other factors playing a critical role: strong income growth and the country’s success in expanding financial inclusion. These factors boosted the demand for credit and its supply.

A committed central bank

Brazil’s was the first major central bank to hike rates during the pandemic. After a period of easing, it started a new tightening cycle in September 2024. These decisions have been appropriate and guided by the need to bring inflation and inflation expectations down to its 3 percent target.

The country’s twelve-month inflation rate reached 5.1 percent in August, down slightly from the previous month, but still well above target this year. Inflation expectations are also projected to stay above target over an eighteen-month horizon. This explains the rise in policy rates since the pandemic, in line with standard inflation-targeting principles.

How effective is monetary policy transmission?

To gauge the effectiveness of Brazil’s monetary policy tightening, our report estimates how changes in the central bank’s policy interest rate pass through to bank lending rates paid by households and businesses.

We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate raises lending rates by around 0.7 percentage point after four months. To raise average lending rates in the economy by one percentage point, the monetary policy rate must increase by about 1.4 percentage points, since roughly 40 percent of total credit is comprised of government-directed loans that are less responsive to policy rate changes.

The analysis also suggests that since 2020, corporate lending rates have become more responsive to changes in the basic rate. This may in part result from the 2018 reform of Brazil’s large development bank, BNDES, which aligned its lending rates with long-term market rates.

Bank-level analysis shows corporate loans adjust faster than consumer loans, likely due to tighter margins and more experienced borrowers. In turn, payroll-backed consumer loans are the least responsive because of rate caps.

What drove credit growth

Although Brazil’s monetary policy is working, credit growth has been strong over the past few years. This was due to both cyclical factors and structural changes. On the cyclical side, Brazil’s economy has grown faster than expected, with low unemployment and rising incomes driving higher credit demand.

Moreover, Brazil has been making significant structural changes that have increased financial inclusion and credit availability.

The rapid expansion of fintech lenders gave more people access to credit. In 2024, digital banks and other fintech lenders accounted for a quarter of the credit card market and over 10 percent of non-payroll personal loans.

Increased competition reduced banking-sector concentration and lowered average lending rates of incumbent banks. In addition, bond-market financing for corporates as a share of GDP tripled in the last decade, driven by tax-exempt debentures. All these factors supported credit growth.

With a 15 percent basic rate, Brazil’s central bank has administered a strong dose of monetary tightening to temper credit growth and return inflation and expectations to target. New loan volumes have been falling since April, further suggesting that the treatment is working.

More broadly, Brazil’s economy is showing signs of moderation amid tight monetary and fiscal policies and elevated global policy uncertainty. Overall, our research shows that concerns about the lack of effectiveness of monetary are proving to be largely unwarranted and that monetary policy transmission in Brazil remains active.

Daniel Leigh is IMF mission chief for Brazil; Swarnali A. Hannan is a deputy division chief in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department; and Rui Xu is an economist in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The EU Deforestation Regulation has suffered multiple setbacks due to its complex and occasionally vague legal architecture, leading to regulatory uncertainty and inconsistent interpretations across Member States. For the EUDR to go ahead successfully, some critical issues require immediate attention.

“He should bring a sleep mask and earplugs. The shouting can go on until four in the morning", a former inmate warned

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Gvernment officials have warned that Issa Tchiroma Bakary's declaration is illegal.

Mwavita Rohomoya sits with her four children in front of her drink stall in Minova, Kalehe territory, South Kivu province, DR Congo, on 23 April 2025. Minova is one of the first areas in South Kivu to be affected by the resurgence of violence, one of the immediate consequences was the rise in prices of staple foods and essential goods. UNICEF’s cash transfer programme helped families meet their urgent needs—buying food, finding shelter, and accessing healthcare—while also enabling some, like Mwavita, to invest in small-scale income-generating activities. Credit: UNICEF/Christian Mirindi Johnson

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 20 2025 (IPS)

In 2025, unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and humanitarian funding have exacerbated global hunger crises, leaving millions without access to food or basic services. Funding shortfalls have forced aid agencies to scale back or suspend lifesaving programs in some of the world’s most food-insecure regions, particularly across the Global South—exacerbating already dire conditions caused by conflict, displacement, economic instability, and climate shocks.

On October 15, the World Food Programme (WFP) released a report, A Lifeline At Risk: Food Assistance At A Breaking Point, which illustrated the impact of funding shortfalls to their programs in the context of six countries: Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan,and Sudan. In these nations, funding cuts have had devastating consequences, with entire communities being pushed to the brink of starvation.

“We see significant reductions in our operations and the operations of our partners,” said Ross Smith, WFP’s Director of Emergency Preparedness and Response. “That goes from cutting people completely off of assistance, reducing rations, and reducing the duration of assistance. Many vulnerable people are completely without a safety net or a landing pad at this point in time.”

The report highlighted that the number of people in urgent need of food and livelihood assistance has surged to a record high of 295 million in 2025—coinciding with major reductions in foreign aid and humanitarian funding from key donors, including the United States. As a result, WFP has been forced to drastically scale back its operations, grappling with an estimated 40 percent cut in funding that has severely limited its ability to deliver lifesaving support to the world’s hungriest populations.

WFP warns that recent funding cuts could “severely undermine global food security”. It is estimated that roughly 13.7 million people who are dependent on food assistance from WFP could be pushed into emergency levels of hunger, with children, women, refugees, and internally displaced people being disproportionately affected.

“These cuts are triggering additional food insecurity that in itself could have impacts at both national and regional levels,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.

WFP notes that the full extent of the impact of these funding cuts to food assistance will not be immediate, but will unfold in the coming months. “This is why we call it a ‘slow burn’ in the report,” said Bauer. “Because the cuts haven’t fully fed through the system yet to all countries and communities.”

Bauer warned that escalating hunger amid dwindling aid could have far-reaching implications that could exacerbate existing crises, citing rising rates of child marriage, increased school dropouts, heightened social instability, increased displacement, and growing economic and political turmoil. Furthermore, WFP has recorded increased rates of malnutrition among children in refugee communities, with many of these children experiencing lifelong health challenges as a result.

One of WFP’s most pressing challenges has been the reduction of disaster preparedness programs for some of the world’s most crisis-prone countries, as resources are redirected to sustain emergency food assistance for the most affected populations. In Haiti, WFP has been forced to suspend its hot meals program for displaced families and cut monthly rations in half, as the nation continues to struggle with record levels of hunger.

Bauer noted that Haiti’s contingency stock of humanitarian aid has been fully depleted and, for the first time since Hurricane Matthew in 2016, WFP has been unable to replenish it. The agency continues to closely monitor Haiti’s food security situation.

Similarly, Smith reported that conditions in Afghanistan have worsened considerably over the course of the year, with fewer than 10 percent of the country’s 10 million food-insecure people now receiving humanitarian aid. “We expect pipeline breaks as early as November and can currently only provide (limited) winter assistance,” said Smith, noting that less than 8 percent of those in need of winterization support will receive it.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), WFP has been forced to cut its operations from targeting 2.3 million people to just 600,000 and warns that its resources could be entirely depleted by February of next year without additional funding. In Somalia, WFP’s reach has also been drastically reduced, with the agency now able to assist less than 25 percent of the people it supported last year.

In Sudan, WFP has managed to assist roughly 4 million people in August—half of them in hard-to-reach areas such as Darfur and South Kordofan. “We are shifting away from what used to be a very large program, in the absence of significant government support for many people, to one now that is famine prevention that is moving from hotspot to hotspot,” said Smith. In neighboring South Sudan, WFP has redirected its limited resources to prioritize civilians experiencing the most extreme levels of hunger.

According to the report, WFP has recalibrated its food assistance priorities in the face of dwindling aid budgets and shrinking staff, choosing to focus on famine prevention efforts and distributing food rations that reach fewer people but cover basic needs. Bauer added that it is imperative for humanitarian aid groups to align with local actors and continue to closely monitor levels of hunger. “The data and analytics – they’re the humanitarian community’s GPS,” Bauer said. “We’re taking the risk of losing our way without the data. So the data must flow.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Morocco want to be a "strong contender" at all levels of global football after beating Argentina to win the Under-20 World Cup for the first time.

Morocco want to be a "strong contender" at all levels of global football after beating Argentina to win the Under-20 World Cup for the first time.

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