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By CIVICUS
Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS discusses the ongoing crackdown on civil society in Belarus with Natallia Satsunkevich, human rights defender and interim board member of the Viasna Human Rights Centre.

Belarusian authorities have stepped up arrests in a bid to stifle any remaining opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko, who is seeking a seventh term in the January 2025 presidential election. Over 1,200 people have been detained since the end of September, many for participating in online chats that have been used to organise protests since the 2020 election. The authorities describe these as part of an extremist network. Some of those arrested have been charged with conspiracy to seize power, carrying a potential prison sentence of up to 15 years. Around 1,300 political prisoners are currently being held in overcrowded prisons, while opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains in exile.

Natallia Satsunkevich

How has the political atmosphere changed in the run-up to the presidential election?

As the presidential election approaches, the authorities have intensified their crackdown on civil society and political opposition. This isn’t new – repression has been escalating since the protests following the 2020 stolen election – but in recent months it has taken an even darker turn.

One of the regime’s main tools is the criminalisation of independent organisations and media. Viasna, for example, has been declared an ‘extremist formation’. This means anyone who interacts with us – whether by sharing information, giving an interview or offering support – risks being arrested and prosecuted. This level of repression has created a climate of fear where people are too afraid to speak out about human rights abuses or take part in activism.

There has also been an increase in arrests, house searches and interrogations. Many of those arrested during the 2020 protests are still in prison and new arrests are taking place almost every day. The political opposition inside the country has been effectively silenced, with most of its leaders imprisoned or driven into exile. It’s clear that Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime is determined to hold onto power at all costs.

Is there any question of the outcome being at stake?

Unfortunately, no. Elections in Belarus are so heavily manipulated that they’re little more than formalities to legitimise Lukashenko’s rule. We’ve been monitoring and campaigning for free and fair elections for years, along with groups like the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, but at the moment those conditions simply don’t exist.

The opposition has been completely sidelined. Many of its leaders are either in prison or have fled the country. Alternative candidates aren’t allowed to run, and any form of opposition campaigning is banned. The state-controlled media is completely one-sided, constantly pushing the narrative that Lukashenko has overwhelming public support, while silencing anyone who disagrees.

With no transparency or accountability, the outcome is already decided. This election is just another tool to keep Lukashenko in power for as long as possible.

What are the likely post-election scenarios?

After the election, things are likely to stay much the same. The regime is likely to continue its authoritarian rule and we have little hope for immediate change.

For Belarus to move towards democracy, the first step would be to release all political prisoners. Almost 1,300 people, including opposition leaders, activists and journalists, are currently behind bars on politically motivated charges. They should be allowed to participate in the political process.

The government must also end its campaign of repression. Widespread arrests, searches, interrogations and torture have created an atmosphere of fear that stifles any form of dissent. Reform of the police and judicial systems is essential to address this.

Belarus also needs genuinely free and fair elections. This means opposition candidates should be able to campaign openly and people must be able to vote without fear of retribution.

Finally, accountability for human rights abuses is crucial. Those responsible for torture, unlawful detention and silencing dissent must be held accountable. This is vital for restoring trust and building a democratic future.

How can the international community support democratic transition?

The international community has been a lifeline for the Belarusian people, and this support must continue. Financial aid and solidarity from democratic states, particularly the European Union and the USA, have enabled many activists, including myself and others who’ve had to leave Belarus for our own safety, to continue our work.

Public condemnation of the regime’s actions also helps. Even if it doesn’t lead to immediate change, it shows Belarusian people and the government that the world is watching and reminds the authorities that actions have consequences.

It is also important to seek accountability through international legal mechanisms. Since we can’t hold perpetrators to account inside Belarus, it is essential to seek justice outside the country. States such as Lithuania and Poland have already begun investigating crimes committed by the regime and have referred cases to the International Criminal Court. These efforts show that there is a global determination to hold those in power to account.

The crisis in Belarus must be recognised as an international issue and kept on the international agenda. The United Nations has described the regime’s actions as crimes against humanity, making it clear this is not just a domestic matter: it’s an international crisis that demands international attention and action.

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SEE ALSO
Belarus: ‘Despite the repression, we haven’t halted our work for a single day’ Interview with Marina Kostylianchenko 16.Dec.2023
Belarus: ‘There is a pro-democracy civil society that opposes the war and advocates for democratic reforms’ Interview with Anastasiya Vasilchuk 22.Mar.2023
Belarus: a prison state in Europe CIVICUS Lens 15.Mar.2023

 

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By Farhana Haque Rahman
TORONTO, Canada, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

Do you sometimes feel like a hamster on its wheel, or perhaps stuck on a runaway train hurtling towards the abyss? Whatever metaphor one might choose for our world looking back on 2024, rainbows don’t easily spring to mind.

Farhana Haque Rahman

Wars and conflicts already in full spate a year ago got even worse, with horrific violence inflicted on civilians, especially women and children, and millions displaced. Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Sahel, Haiti. A long list getting longer.

The COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, were ostensibly about trying to find agreements on how to tackle the global climate crisis. Two weeks of negotiations, covered in detail by IPS, came close to collapse, ending just short of total failure.

As 2024 raced towards a place in the record books as the planet’s hottest year on record, a meaningful Baku accord on climate finance for poorer nations was once again stymied by powerful nations and their geopolitical rivalries, squabbling about accountability against a backdrop of already rising debts.

In the words of Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, the rich world staged “a great escape in Baku with no real money on the table and vague and unaccountable promises of funds to be mobilised.” (One might also add that major emitting countries like China and India, which project power and wealth but refuse to be defined as ‘rich’, also got off lightly in Baku).

Disputes over finance for a new fund also sank the COP16 biodiversity summit held in Cali, Colombia, where exhausted delegates failed to reach consensus.

In a blow for those seeking to prevent mass species extinction, countries also failed to agree on a new framework for monitoring progress on tackling biodiversity loss.

A landmark new report by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warns that deep, fundamental shifts in how people view and interact with the natural world are urgently needed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and safeguard life on Earth.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity – also known as the Transformative Change Report – builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change, and on the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment Report.

Critical in terms of their contributions to humanity, but confined to the sidelines in these big power orchestrations, organizations like OCHA, the IOM and WHO act both as harbingers of doom while attempting to carry out essential repair and maintenance work amidst the wreckage.

Greg Puley, head of the Climate Team at the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a clarion call for an ambitious and fair global climate finance goal at COP29. “This year alone we witnessed devastating floods in the Sahel, extreme heatwaves in Asia and Latin America, and drought in Southern Africa,” he told IPS.

Also going unheeded was an appeal to Israel in November to halt its assault on North Gaza. Fifteen UN and other humanitarian organizations described the crisis there as “apocalyptic”. In that context the World Health Organization said its second round of polio vaccinations in the Gaza Strip had been partially successful.

Analysis by the UN Human Rights Office showed that nearly 70 percent of those killed in the war in Gaza were women and children.

“Gaza is becoming a graveyard for children,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said on November 6. “More journalists have reportedly been killed over a four-week period than in any conflict in at least three decades. More United Nations aid workers have been killed than in any comparable period in the history of our organization,” he added.

Over 10 million people have been displaced by conflict inside Sudan while an additional 2.2 million have fled the country. Warring parties regularly attack civilians, inflicting terrible violence against women. Madiha Abdalla, an activist journalist forced to flee Sudan, wrote for IPS describing how women human rights defenders have been targeted.

Despite the scale of the suffering in Sudan, international attention is waning and aid has been blocked. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution.

As the world observed the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women on November 25, UN Women data showed almost one in three women around the world have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence at least once in their life.

Individual activists like Abdalla are particularly vulnerable with little or no backup during conflicts. But 2024 has also seen entire organizations up sticks and leave. Haiti is an example. More than 700,000 people have been displaced there as gang violence has escalated, particularly since deployment of the underfunded Multinational Security Support mission.

Doctors Without Borders, active in Haiti for over 30 years, said it was suspending critical care in the capital Port-au-Prince following repeated threats from local law enforcement towards staff and patients. The UN also ordered the evacuation of its staff from the capital in what it somewhat euphemistically called a temporary reduction of its “footprint” in Port-au-Prince. UNICEF said an unprecedented number of children had been recruited by gangs.

Refugees from Haiti even became a weapon in Donald Trump’s US election campaign when he accused Haitian immigrants of eating the cats and dogs of residents in Springfield, Ohio. Trump’s false claim – widely debunked – apparently did nothing to derail his ultimately successful campaign in which the former president repeatedly proclaimed his intention to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants if elected president.

Paradoxically, his deportation plans might be spurred on further by the International Organization’s World Migration Report 2024 detailing unprecedented numbers of international migrants worldwide – estimated at 281 million. In turn this has led to a spike in remittances to their home countries worth hundreds of billions of dollars, making up a “significant” chunk of the GDP of developing countries.

Trump’s disdain for international organisations and binding commitments involved in membership makes it likely that he will repeat the drastic steps taken in his 2016-21 term in office, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and freezing of contributions to the WHO.

As 2024 draws to a close with the ominous spread of renewed war in Syria, a more isolationist US under Trump reminds us of the value of those lesser known organisations slipping under the radar, such as the Sasakawa Foundation campaigning to end leprosy and its stigma; IITA/CGIAR and their commitment to small farms and transforming food systems in Africa; the scientists developing a new vaccine to boost immunity to malaria.

A long and positive list this time. Even on the climate front, progress should also be recognized and nurtured, even if coming too late and too slowly, such as the expectation that the world might see a peak in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, thanks in part to giant leaps in solar and wind capacity.

People do have the powers to make a difference too, whether to elect a Trump or oust a corrupt would-be autocrat, as 2024 demonstrated.

Dr Muhammad Yunus, 84-year-old Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government and Nobel peace prize laureate, spoke in his first address to the United Nations of the “power of the ordinary people”, especially the young, to forge a “new Bangladesh” after mass protests against government corruption and violence ousted then prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August.

We might be on that train heading to the abyss but we do possess the knowledge and tools to apply the brakes. If only we could learn the lessons.

Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Thirteen generators were distributed from the UNICEF warehouse in Deir Al Balah, to be used to operate critical water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities in south Gaza. Credit: UNICEF/Mohammed Nateel

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

As talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine intensify, bombardments in Gaza continue, raising the number of civilian casualties and internal displacements. A December 19 report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned Israeli authorities for committing acts of genocide upon the people in the Gaza Strip, including the deprivation of water and the destruction of critical water sanitation infrastructures.

According to estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), a person needs between 50 to 100 liters of water on a daily basis in order to ensure that “basic needs are met.” In emergency situations, it is estimated that people can survive off of 15 liters per day. Officials from HRW estimate that Gazans only have access to approximately 2 to 9 liters of water per day, which is inadequate for drinking, cooking, and washing.

“Water is essential for human life, yet for over a year the Israeli government has deliberately denied Palestinians in Gaza the bare minimum they need to survive. This isn’t just negligence; it is a calculated policy of deprivation that has led to the deaths of thousands from dehydration and disease that is nothing short of the crime against humanity of extermination, and an act of genocide,” said HRW Executive-Director Tirana Hasan.

On January 26 this year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued provisional measures mandating that Israel prevent genocide in Gaza by enabling the delivery of humanitarian assistance and basic services. However, numerous violations were recorded throughout the year.

An Oxfam International analysis estimates that approximately 47,634 cubic meters of water are produced in Gaza every day. However, roughly 80 percent of this water supply is lost in leakages due to the damage of water filtration systems caused by Israeli airstrikes. Only about 10,714 cubic meters reach the Gazan population on a daily basis. This is entirely avoidable as the minimum water quantity required by the population is approximately 33,900 cubic meters.

Satellite photos and videos obtained by HRW showed extensive damage to water sanitation infrastructures from Israeli bombardments. It has also been reported that Israeli authorities have cut off electricity in the enclave, which essentially renders critical infrastructures such as water pumps, desalination plants, and generators ineffective.

Additionally, HRW has documented instances of Israeli bombardments that have killed water utility workers, destroyed water equipment warehouses, and impeded the delivery of water-related aid from the United Nations (UN) and other humanitarian organizations. HRW also states that Israeli authorities had also “deliberately” restricted the delivery of fuel in Gaza, which has essentially choked civilians off from rescue efforts, healthcare services, hygienic resources, and bakery operations.

According to a statement from the Union of Gaza Strip Municipalities, the depletion of water services has resulted in “solid waste accumulation, and wastewater leakage onto streets and residential areas.” A spokesperson from WHO informed HRW that “damaged water and sanitation systems, and dwindling cleaning supplies have made it almost impossible to maintain basic infection prevention and control measures (in healthcare facilities).”

This has led to the rampant development of disease among millions of displaced Gazans. WHO reports that there have been 132,000 cases of jaundice, a symptom of hepatitis A. 225,000 cases of skin infections have also been recorded, which have largely been attributed to the spread of over 1 million cases of acute respiratory diseases.

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), documented cases of diarrhea among children under age five has risen from 48,000 to 71,0000. This marks a 2000 percent increase since October 7, 2023. Doctors in Gaza have told HRW personnel that dehydration and malnutrition are so severe that it is almost impossible to treat patients that are struggling with disease, as their immune systems have been severely weakened.

In early December, talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine were reported in the media, with authorities from both parties expressing satisfaction at the possibility of an imminent agreement. Humanitarian organizations including the UN have also expressed optimism.

Georgios Petropoulos, the Head of OCHA’s (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) sub-office in Gaza, informed reporters on December 20 that there would likely be a loosening of restrictions imposed by Israeli authorities, resulting in increased security for the people of Gaza and more effective deliveries of humanitarian aid. Petropoulos also predicted that people would begin returning home, rubble would begin to be cleared, and basic services would begin running again.

Despite this, Israel continues to coordinate hostilities within the enclave, threatening the lives of thousands on a daily basis. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed that a series of airstrikes took place on December 19 in Jabalia, Tuffah, Gaza City, and Beit Lahiya, killing a total of 41 civilians.

A recent report from the humanitarian and medical aid organization, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), states that the repeated airstrikes, enforced mass displacements, and sustained blockages of humanitarian aid constitute “ethnic cleansing”.

“People in Gaza are struggling to survive apocalyptic conditions, but nowhere is safe, no one is spared, and there is no exit from this shattered enclave,” said MSF Secretary-General Christopher Lockwood. “The recent military offensive in the north is a stark illustration of the brutal war the Israeli forces are waging on Gaza, and we are seeing clear signs of ethnic cleansing as Palestinians are forcibly displaced, trapped, and bombed.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The Government of Romania, a Balkan state to the south of Ukraine, and its humanitarian partners have offered extensive support to Ukrainians fleeing the escalation of the conflict with Russia since 2022. Beneficiaries receive food and humanitarian provisions from the Romania Red Cross. Credit: Filip Scarlat/Romanian Red Cross

By Catherine Wilson
BUCHAREST, Romania , Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

The days are short with bitterly cold rain in Bucharest, the capital of Romania, the largest Balkan country located south of the Ukraine. Over the border, temperatures in Kyiv will plummet to a daily average of zero in December as the Ukraine war grinds on.

Wars are bringing suffering and heightened insecurity to millions around the world, and food is not only a casualty of bombing and devastation but also being used as a weapon against civilians by warring parties.

Conflict is now the greatest driver of major food crises in the world, says the World Food Programme, and the situation is acute in the Ukraine, which continues to defend itself against Russian invasion, and Gaza, still under siege by Israel. And the threat of severe hunger for civilians caught in hostilities will only rise as winter sets in during the coming months.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, an escalation of tensions since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, triggered massive human displacement, with many fleeing into neighbouring countries. By 2023, Romania, with a population of 19 million, had witnessed more than 3 million Ukrainians arrive at its border, the vast majority being women and children.

“The bombs fell down near my house. I woke up; my 13-year-old daughter woke up. I got up my son and said, ‘You have five minutes; grab your things, and we are going to the metro station.’ We found a car to pick us up with the children and to the house of my sister, her newborn baby, and two more children of her husband. It was crazy. Everywhere there were queues. You couldn’t get money from the ATM, you couldn’t get fuel—nothing.” Iryna Sobol, a 45-year-old Ukrainian who fled her Kyiv home in 2022 and now resides in Bucharest, recounted to IPS. And, as the conflict spread, food prices rose.

As with other basic needs, food systems face collapse when military attacks destroy agricultural land and crops, forcing farmers to flee and damaging the critical infrastructure for transporting, storing, and selling food. Since 2022, the agricultural industry in the Ukraine has been hit with losses of USD 80 billion. And as people under siege face increasingly scarce food supplies, prices rise for what is available, making basic sustenance an even greater struggle for those who have lost their income.

Since mid-year, Russian forces have made aggressive advances into the east and Donetsk region of Ukraine, where more than 137,000 people have been forced to flee since August.

Ukraine refugees receive food provisions from the Romania Red Cross in Bucharest. Credit: Filip Scarlat/Romanian Red Cross

“The humanitarian situation is further exacerbated now that winter has set in. Russia’s targeted destruction of critical energy infrastructure has led to massive losses in Ukraine’s energy generation capacity, and the attacks continue, disrupting electricity, heating, and water supply and already affecting millions of households,” Elisabeth Haslund, spokesperson for the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in the Ukraine, told IPS. Food is also a critical need, with 7.3 million Ukrainians, or 20 percent of the population, facing food insecurity this year, reports the United Nations.

In Bucharest, Andrei Scarlat, Manager of the Romanian Red Cross Humanity Concept Store, said he had witnessed a recent increase of newly arrived Ukrainian refugees registering for humanitarian supplies, such as flour, sugar, rice, canned foods, and hygiene products.

The Romanian Red Cross, which has assisted more than 1.3 million displaced Ukrainians with food, water, shelter, and health, is one of many humanitarian organizations that are partnered with the Romanian government in its acclaimed state response to the Ukraine refugee crisis. Within days of its neighbour coming under attack, the Balkan state coordinated an emergency operation at border crossings with the provision of shelter, food, and medical care to those fleeing. And it offers temporary protection to refugees with access to services such as health, education, housing, and employment.

An Action Against Hunger aid worker measures a baby girl’s arm using a MUAC band to assess nutritional health in Gaza, August 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

But, more than 2,000 kilometres to the southeast, conflict in the besieged Palestinian enclave of Gaza has already brought it to the brink of famine. In the tiny 365-square-kilometer territory, sandwiched between the Mediterranean Sea to the east and Israel to the west, 2.23 million Palestinians have endured years of suffering under an Israeli blockade. Now the military onslaught by the Israeli Defence Force in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack inside Israeli territory on 7 October last year, which left 1,200 Israelis dead, has killed more than 44,000 Palestinians.

And the destruction of basic infrastructure for habitation, including water, sanitation, health and medical facilities, and food systems, with the elimination of 70 percent of Gaza’s crops, has created unbearable living conditions for the more than 90 percent of Gazans who are displaced. In October, the World Food Programme warned that famine was imminent.

“The Gaza Strip is currently in a human-made famine. We are long past the point of ‘imminent famine.’ The first child was killed by Israeli-imposed famine many months ago and many more since,” Yasmeen El-Hasan of the Palestinian Union of Agricultural Work Committees in Ramallah, Palestine, told IPS. “The use of food and essential resources as weapons of war is a hallmark of Israeli systematic violence against Palestinians… aimed at starving Palestinians into elimination.”

In Northern Gaza, the focus of Israeli air and ground assaults over the past two months, more than 65,000 people are barely surviving in overcrowded tent shelters with no water and sanitation. The dire lack of food is causing severe malnutrition, especially in mothers and children.

And since October, Israeli border authorities have blocked and delayed food and humanitarian deliveries into the territory through the Kerem Shalom crossing. Consequently, in October only 5,000 metric tons of food succeeded in reaching Gaza, or one fifth of what was required, claims the World Food Programme.

“There has been no significant easing of restrictions on the entry of food and humanitarian aid into Gaza… and we were only able to deliver aid to half as many distribution points in North Gaza over the past month,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger, a humanitarian organization addressing hunger and malnutrition around the world, told IPS.

El-Hasan added that “the minimal food that is available is not accessible. The food consumer price index has increased 312 percent; aid that does enter is concentrated in small areas, and the Israeli occupation forces often attack Palestinians as they seek aid.”

A child in northern Gaza drinks water provided by Action Against Hunger to support displaced communities, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

 

A scene of destruction in northern Gaza shows demolished buildings and scattered debris, with a lone tree standing amidst the ruins, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

As the winter months unfold, the people of Gaza will face catastrophic conditions, with 90 percent of Gazans likely to experience severe hunger. “Cold and rainy weather is already affecting those in makeshift shelters, which are often constructed from tarpaulins, blankets, and cardboard, offering little protection. Children and the elderly are particularly at risk,” said Action Against Hunger.

On 12 December, the UN General Assembly voted for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. But the survival of Gazans during the coming months will depend on the untrammelled passage of humanitarian aid. “There must be an immediate reopening of all border crossings, a substantial increase in the influx of aid into Gaza, and a guarantee of safe, unobstructed access for humanitarian organizations to deliver aid to all areas,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger continued. El-Hasan added that “the international community must also abide by their legal obligations and hold Israel accountable for its violations of international law, including the use of starvation as a weapon of war.”

In the Ukraine, the UNHCR and its humanitarian partners are responding to those who continue to flee fighting and need support as weather conditions deteriorate. But, as in Gaza, only an end to the conflict will provide the conditions for reconstructing Ukraine’s agricultural industry and food production, a goal that will take years and an investment of at least USD 56 billion.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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A village in the Afungi Peninsula in Palma District, Cabo Delgado Province. Credit: Justiça Ambiental

By Maina Waruru
NAIROBI, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

Climate and environmental activists from Japan have criticized the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for financing the controversial Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project to the tune of USD 3 billion in a loan signed in July.

The project has been associated with the displacement of thousands of people and is in violation of Japan’s G7 commitment to end direct public support for overseas fossil fuel projects.

The bank’s action is also projected to have far-reaching effects on climate and the environment, further negatively impacting the livelihoods of communities in the restive Cabo Delgado province in the north of the county, a report says.

Conflict in the region has been linked to insurgency and human rights abuses by the country’s security forces.

In the report “Faces of Impact: How JBIC and Japan’s LNG Financing Harm Communities and the Planet” by Friends of Earth (FOE), Japan activists find that in Mozambique, at least 550 families were displaced for the Rovuma LNG project, exposing them to risk as it is situated in a conflict-torn region and has been linked to human rights abuses of civilians.

The project is further backed by the Japanese bank through a loan of U$536 million to Mitsui, a Japanese corporate group, also one of the owners of the project, and which describes the project as “one of the largest natural gas reserves discovered anywhere in the world in recent years.”

The money will finance the development and production of LNG in a region where thousands of civilians have been displaced by both violence and the gas development activities since 2012, some without compensation for their land.

The LNG project intends to extract 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which will be done offshore in the Rovuma Basin and piped to an onshore LNG processing plant on the Afungi Peninsula.

“The project began its onshore construction activities in 2019 but was suspended in 2021 as a result of violent conflict. It has not officially resumed, but some of its activities have been restarted since 2023,” the report explains. The insurgency remains active, and human rights infringements resulting from the project activities remain unresolved, it further cautions.

“The Mozambique LNG project is linked to violent conflict, has resulted in social injustices on Mozambican citizens, and is a potential source of massive carbon emissions. It has already cost the country productive lands, local economies, and valuable natural areas,” it warns.

Should the project proceed as planned and despite becoming the biggest gas project in Africa, it will deliver low revenues to the host country and place the country at risk of liability if it fails, the report opines.

Owned by a consortium of seven companies, including the Mozambique state company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH). All except ENH control their shares through offshore companies, with TotalEnergies being the majority owner and operator.

It finds that there is a “pattern of harm and destruction” in JBIC-financed gas projects, and communities have conveyed to the bank that it is violating its own “Guidelines for Confirmation of Environmental and Social Considerations.”

According to Kete Fumo of the advocacy group Justiça Ambiental and Friends of Earth Mozambique, the project is indirectly contributing to the insurgency that has plagued the region for years.

“People in at least 17 districts are exposed to terrorist attacks. Some families in Palma district, for example, have been displaced but have not been offered any compensation yet. They had lots of extensive land, but not anymore; they have lost their only source of sustenance,” she said during a webinar to launch the report hosted by FOE Japan.

By 2018, when the census of affected communities in Palma was updated, some 616 families were identified, and another 1,847 families were found to be “economically affected” by the loss of their farmland handed over to the project, added Fumo.

“The environmental issues surrounding the project are already very visible, with accentuated erosion, increased weather events, and the fact that it is considered one of the six carbon bombs in the world, with Mozambique being one of the African countries most vulnerable to climate change,” she told IPS in an interview.

Failure to comply with compensation agreements entered between the affected and TotalEnergies posed a big problem for communities that, due to the lack of land for cultivation, now produce much less food than they did before the project arrived.

This has left them exposed to food insecurity, with fishing communities lacking access to fishing areas contributing to hunger in the villages.

“The insecurity scenario in Palma also makes accessibility to the district deficient, which makes the price of basic necessities more expensive in a community where families’ sources of income have been cut off by the project. People need to reinvent themselves to be able to support their families, but this is a scenario where not everyone has the capacity or conditions to do so,” the activist added.

She called for the abandonment of the project, saying that “not implementing the project and leaving people living in their homes with their livelihoods, culture, and traditions has been the call made by Justica Ambiental since the beginning of this process.”

“In the history of Mozambique and in our experience with mega projects, no resettlement has had positive results. The call continues to be that this project should not be implemented, since even before a drop of gas had been exploited, the impacts were already negatively affecting the communities,” Fumo appealed.

In one of the affected villages of Macala, 50 kilometres off the Indian Ocean coastline, residents claimed they had lost not less than 7,000 hectares of land alienated for LNG exploration and development, with no compensation so far.

One of the victims, Omar Amise, said, “We have received no compensation so far, and our lands have been destroyed by new infrastructure, including roads. Our children are starving because our lands have been taken by roads.”

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), by January 2024, over 582,000 were still displaced in Cabo Delgado province, due to recurring attacks on civilians and governmental forces by “Non-State Armed Groups” since 2017. The numbers grew to over one million at the height of the conflict in 2021 and 2022, adds the UN agency.

From the end of December 2023, over 8,000 people have also been newly displaced as a result of attacks by insurgents in the province’s Macomia, Mecufi, Metuge, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, and Quissanga districts, adds the UNHCR.

An article published in September 2024 by the magazine Politico alleged that a Mozambican army unit operating near the Mozambique LNG project site carried out a series of atrocities, including rape, torture, and the murder or disappearance of at least 97 people.

It claimed that TotalEnergies was aware of the atrocities by the army in the wider area, while it paid a Joint Task Force made up of army soldiers, commandos, and paramilitary police for its LNG site protection.

Back to the FOE report, it claims that since 2016, JBIC has provided a staggering UD18.6 billion to fossil gas expansion—four times more than Japan’s contribution to the Green Climate Fund.

The bank is also blamed for supporting similar fossils energy projects amounting to USD18.5 billion in the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Australia, Vietnam, and the United States

Our enquiries on the claims made by FOE were answered by either the French Energy multinational or JBIC.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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A volcano in Vanuatu was active in 2023. The county was affected by a 6.6 M earthquake in March 2023 and 7.4 M earthquake in December 2024. Credit: Unsplash/Sebastian Lio

By Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood and Sanjay Srivastava
BANGKOK, Thailand, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

In December 2024, Vanuatu experienced yet another harrowing reminder of its vulnerability to disasters—a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital, Port Vila, leaving 14 dead, over 200 injured, and thousands more affected.

The devastating earthquake, compounded by overnight aftershocks and disrupted essential services, highlights the precarious situation faced by countries already grappling with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Vanuatu is emblematic of the cascading disasters that Pacific Island nations increasingly endure, where frequent earthquakes intersect with the escalating impacts of climate-induced hazards such as cyclones, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion accompanied by staggering loss and damage experienced by vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

With every fraction of a degree of warming, the region’s diverse subregions—from the icy peaks of the Third Pole to the low-lying islands of the Pacific—are encountering unparalleled climate risks.

Recognizing these unique challenges, ESCAP launched the 2024 Asia-Pacific Subregional Disaster Reports to customize the insights and recommendations from the flagship Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 to the distinct vulnerabilities and opportunities within each subregion.

Transformative insights: Shaping climate resilient futures

The 2024 subregional reports reveal escalating disaster risks across Asia and the Pacific, stressing that incremental actions are insufficient against intensifying climate impacts. East and North-East Asia has faced $2 trillion in economic losses and nearly half a million fatalities over five decades, with 2°C warming expected to exacerbate droughts, heatwaves, and floods in China, Mongolia and Korea, threatening urban centers and critical systems.

North and Central Asia faces growing multi-hazard risks in the Aral Sea Basin, where droughts, heatwaves, and floods will endanger agriculture and energy systems. In South-East Asia, nearly 100 per cent of the population is at risk of floods under 2°C warming, with the Mekong River Basin emerging as a persistent multi-hazard hotspot.

Pacific island nations face rising seas and stronger cyclones that erode coastlines, threaten biodiversity, and force communities to relocate, while South and South-West Asia grapples with glacial melt from the Third Pole, jeopardizing water security for 1.3 billion people.

Economic and social costs are mounting, with average annual losses (AAL) projected to rise under warming scenarios. East and North-East Asia’s AAL of $510 billion could increase further under 2°C warming, while the Pacific’s AAL exceeds $20 billion, with small island developing states like Vanuatu and Tonga suffering losses of over 21 per cent of GDP.

Despite these dire projections, the reports emphasize that investments in transformative adaptation—such as early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and integrated climate policies—can mitigate risks and protect livelihoods across the region.

Early warning systems: A lifeline for resilience

A critical takeaway from the subregional reports is the transformative role of early warning systems (EWS) in disaster risk reduction. By providing timely and actionable information, these systems save lives and reduce economic losses. In South-East Asia, effective EWS could prevent $8.7 billion to $13.1 billion annually, while in the Pacific, they could avert $4 billion to $6 billion in damages each year.

EWS are especially vital in regions with complex multi-hazard risks, such as the Pacific small island developing States, where cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise intersect, and in South-East Asia, where urban flood risks are rapidly escalating.

For EWS to be fully effective, they must encompass four key pillars: risk knowledge, detection and monitoring, dissemination of warnings, and preparedness. Investments in these areas, combined with robust regional cooperation, can ensure that warnings reach the most vulnerable populations in time to act.

The reports highlight examples like impact-based forecasting in South and Southwest Asia and AI-powered risk assessments in China and Japan as transformative advancements in EWS implementation. These systems not only save lives but also help governments and communities reduce disaster recovery costs and safeguard economic stability.

Transboundary solutions: Collaborative action for shared risks

Transboundary risks like ocean-based hazards, inland water stress, and desertification demand collaborative solutions across regions.

1. Ocean-Based Climate Action:

Rising sea levels, intensified cyclones, and coastal erosion require collective efforts such as mangrove restoration and integrated coastal management. In the Pacific SIDS, ASEAN, and South-West Asia, platforms like the Pacific Resilience Partnership and Mekong Basin initiatives foster nature-based solutions to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

2. Inland Water Systems:

The drying of the Aral Sea Basin in North and Central Asia highlights the importance of transboundary water-sharing agreements to combat drought and degradation. For Third Pole glacial melt, collaboration through the Third Pole Climate Forum is vital to safeguard water security for 1.3 billion people in South, South-West, and East Asia.

3. Desertification and Sand and Dust Storms:

Desertification and sand and dust storms (SDS) are accelerating across Asia. Countries like China, Mongolia, and Iran are advancing afforestation and land restoration, while regional frameworks promote sustainable land management to mitigate downstream impacts.

By prioritizing transboundary cooperation, countries can tackle shared risks, protect vulnerable communities, and build scalable solutions for resilience.

A call for transformative change

The 2024 subregional reports make it unequivocally clear: transformative, not incremental, adaptation is needed to combat the growing threats of climate change and disasters. This means embedding climate resilience in every sector—agriculture, energy, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation—while fostering regional cooperation to address transboundary risks.

By aligning local action with global frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement, the Asia-Pacific region has an opportunity to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future. As ESCAP’s subregional reports demonstrate, the tools and knowledge are at hand. The time to act is now—before the risks become irreversible and the costs unmanageable.

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood is Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP & Sanjay Srivastava is Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP. Other co-authors include Leila Salarpour Goodarzi, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP, Rusali Agrawal, Consultant, ESCAP, Naina Tanwar, Consultant, ESCAP, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP and Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: US Department of Defense (DoD)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 23 2024 (IPS)

The United States and Western allies have jointly provided a staggering $260 billion in aid, mostly weapons and military assistance, to Ukraine as the long-drawn-out conflict continues following Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels early December, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “All told, the United States has provided $102 billion in assistance to Ukraine, and our allies and partners, $158 billion”.

“And as I said many times before, this may be the best example of burden-sharing that I’ve seen in the 32 years that I’ve been doing this”, he said.

Last week, the New York Times reported the Pentagon will be sending an additional $725 million in arms from its stockpiles, “amid deep concerns in Ukraine that the incoming Trump administration might cut off military aid to the country”.

Meanwhile, as the UN continues its losing battle against world poverty, the UN University’s World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), says to end extreme poverty and absolute monetary poverty worldwide by 2030, it would cost about $70 and $325 billion per year.

Dr. Natalie Goldring, who represents the Acronym Institute at the United Nations on conventional weapons and arms trade issues, told IPS as outgoing US President Joe Biden approaches the end of his presidency in mid-January, “he continues to keep the arms transfer spigot to Ukraine wide open”.

Credit: US Department of Defense (DoD)

In early December 2024, she quoted Blinken as saying, “The United States has been surging our own resources and security assistance to continue to help build up Ukraine’s air defenses, its artillery, its armored vehicles.”

“We are determined – and it’s fully my intent and the President’s intent – to spend every cent that we have available from the $61 billion that were authorized by Congress in the supplemental appropriation.”

“The current situation in Ukraine is fraught and filled with uncertainty. There are many potential risks, including the risk of a broader war in Europe if this conflict continues, and the risk of Russia claiming more and more Ukrainian territory, either through conflict or as a result of negotiations to end the war,” said Dr Goldring.

“The continued flows of weapons from the United States also risk diversion to terrorists and combatants far outside the region. This, in turn, increases the likelihood that US military service members could face our own weapons in conflict. This suggests — yet again — that US arms transfer policy lacks appropriate focus on the potential long-term negative effects of these transfers,” she pointed out.

In his interview with Time magazine, which voted him “Person of the Year” last week, President-elect Trump said: ”I disagree vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles to Russia. Why are we doing that? We are just escalating this war and making it worse.”

Trump also said he would use US support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia in negotiating an end to the war.

Dr Goldring said perhaps the most dangerous action the outgoing Biden Administration has taken, with respect to Ukraine, is its decision to transfer antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine in November and December 2024.

This decision, she said, reverses the Obama and Biden Administrations’ commitments not to deploy antipersonnel landmines anywhere other than the Korean peninsula.

This decision also endangers civilians, will make post-war recovery massively more difficult, and stands in stark opposition to the 164 countries that have committed not to produce, sell, or stockpile antipersonnel landmines under the Mine Ban Treaty.

“During his most recent presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration. In all likelihood, this is yet another example of his consistent practice of vastly overestimating his capacity to achieve change unilaterally and making exaggerated claims that aren’t backed up by analysis or implementable policies.”

But it does raise the question of what he might be willing to give up to Russian President Putin in order to move toward that possibility, she said.

At his press briefing, Blinken also said the United States has been “surging our own resources and security assistance to continue to help build up Ukraine’s air defenses, its artillery, its armored vehicles. We are determined – and it’s fully my intent and the President’s intent – to spend every cent that we have available from the $61 billion that were authorized by Congress in the supplemental appropriation.”

With the G7, we’re finalizing moving out the door $50 billion secured by frozen Russian assets. At the same time, NATO Allies and partners of NATO are sharing the burden and shouldering even more of the responsibility. Germany, for example, just made a pledge of $680 million in new military aid. Bulgaria, Czechia, Sweden, others providing personnel to this new NATO command.

According to the US State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, the heavy flow of US arms to Ukraine include:

• Three Patriot air defense batteries and munitions; • 12 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions; • HAWK air defense systems and munitions; • AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;

• More than 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; • Avenger air defense systems; • VAMPIRE counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) and munitions; • c-UAS gun trucks and ammunition; • Mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems;

• 20 Mi-17 helicopters; • 31 Abrams tanks; • 45 T-72B tanks; • 109 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles; • Over 1,700 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);

• Anti-aircraft guns and ammunition; • Air defense systems components; • Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s systems; • Equipment to support and sustain Ukraine’s existing air defense capabilities; and • 21 air surveillance radars.

Over 8,000 Javelin anti-armor systems; Over 52,000 other anti-armor systems and munitions; • Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems; • 160 155mm Howitzers and over 1,000,000 155mm artillery rounds; • Over 6,000 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;

• Over 10,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; • 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition; • 45,000 152mm artillery rounds; • 20,000 122mm artillery rounds; • 50,000 122mm GRAD rockets; • 72 105mm Howitzers and 370,000 105mm artillery rounds; • 298 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons;

• 34 Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment; • 30 ammunition support vehicles; • 38 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition; • 30 120mm mortar systems and over 175,000 120mm mortar rounds; • 10 82mm mortar systems; • 10 60mm mortar systems; •

And much more.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Credit: Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images

By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Democracy is alive and well in South Korea. When President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to impose martial law, the public and parliamentarians united to defend it. Now Yoon must face justice for his power grab.

President under pressure

Yoon narrowly won the presidency in an incredibly tight contest in March 2022, beating rival candidate Lee Jae-myung by a 0.73 per cent margin. That marked a political comeback for one of South Korea’s two main political parties, the rebranded centre-right People Power Party, and a defeat for the other, the more progressive Democratic Party.

In a divisive campaign, Yoon capitalised on and helped inflame a backlash among many young men against the country’s emerging feminist movement.

South Korea had a MeToo moment in 2018, as women started to speak out following high-profile sexual harassment revelations. South Korea is one of the worst performing members on gender equality of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: it ranks third lowest for women’s political representation and last for its gender pay gap.

Some modest steps forward in women’s rights brought a disproportionate backlash. Groups styling themselves as defending men’s rights sprang up, their members claiming they were discriminated against in the job market. Yoon played squarely to this crowd, pledging to abolish the gender equality ministry. Exit polls showed that over half of young male voters backed him.

Human rights conditions then worsened under Yoon’s rule. His administration was responsible for an array of civic space restrictions. These included harassment and criminalisation of journalists, raids on trade union offices and arrests of their leaders, and protest bans. Media freedoms deteriorated, with lawsuits and criminal defamation laws having a chilling effect.

But the balance of power shifted after the 2024 parliamentary election, when the People Power Party suffered a heavy defeat. Although the Democratic Party and its allies fell short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach Yoon, the result left him a lame-duck president. The opposition-dominated parliament blocked key budget proposals and filed 22 impeachment motions against government officials.

Yoon’s popularity plummeted amid ongoing economic woes and allegations of corruption – sadly nothing new for a South Korean leader. The First Lady, Kim Keon Hee, was accused of accepting a Dior bag as a gift and of manipulating stock prices. It seems clear that Yoon, backed into a corner, lashed out and took an incredible gamble – one that South Korean people didn’t accept.

Yoon’s decision

Yoon made his extraordinary announcement on state TV on the evening of 3 December. Shamefully, he claimed the move was necessary to combat ‘pro-North Korean anti-state forces’, smearing those trying to hold him to account as supporters of the totalitarian regime across the border. Yoon ordered the army to arrest key political figures, including the leader of his party, Han Dong Hoon, Democratic Party leader Lee and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik.

The declaration of martial law gives the South Korean president sweeping powers. The military can arrest, detain and punish people without a warrant, the media are placed under strict controls, all political activity is suspended and protests are widely banned.

The problem was that Yoon had clearly exceeded his powers and acted unconstitutionally. Martial law can only be declared when there are extraordinary threats to the nation’s survival, such as invasion or armed rebellion. A series of political disputes that put the president under uncomfortable scrutiny clearly didn’t fit the bill. And the National Assembly was supposed to remain in session, but Yoon tried to shut it down, deploying armed forces to try to stop representatives gathering to vote.

But Yoon hadn’t reckoned with many people’s determination not to return to the dark days of dictatorship before multiparty democracy was established in 1987. People also had recent experience of forcing out an evidently corrupt president. In the Candlelight Revolution of 2016 and 2017, mass weekly protests built pressure on President Park Guen-hye, who was impeached, removed from office and jailed for corruption and abuse of power.

People massed outside the National Assembly in protest. As the army blocked the building’s main gates, politicians climbed over the fences. Protesters and parliamentary staff faced off against heavily armed troops with fire extinguishers, forming a chain around the building so lawmakers could vote. Some 190 made it in, and they unanimously repealed Yoon’s decision.

Time for justice

Now Yoon must face justice. Protesters will continue to urge him to quit, and a criminal investigation into the decision to declare martial law has been launched.

The first attempt to impeach Yoon was thwarted by political manoeuvring. People Power politicians walked out to prevent a vote on 7 December, apparently hoping Yoon would resign instead. But he showed no sign of stepping down, and a second vote on 14 December decisively backed impeachment, with 12 People Power Party members supporting the move. The vote was greeted with scenes of jubilation from the tens of thousands of protesters massed in freezing conditions outside the National Assembly.

Yoon is now suspended, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo the interim president. The Constitutional Court has six months to hold an impeachment process. Polls show most South Koreans back impeachment, although Yoon still claims his move was necessary.

Democracy defended

South Korea’s representative democracy, like most, has its flaws. People may not always be happy with election results. Presidents may find it hard to work with a parliament that opposes them. But imperfect though it may be, South Koreans have shown they value their democracy and will defend it from the threat of authoritarian rule – and can be expected to keep mobilising if Yoon evades justice.

Thankfully, Yoon’s attacks on civic space hadn’t got to the stage where civil society’s ability to mobilise and people’s capacity to defend democracy had been broken down. Recent events and South Korea’s uncertain future make it all the more important that the civic space restrictions imposed by Yoon’s administration are reversed as quickly as possible. To defend against backsliding and deepen democracy, it’s vital to expand civic space and invest in civil society.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

 

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A young girl trying to cross a flooded road in Bangladesh following the wake of Cyclone Remal. Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-sensitive nations and is expected to be significantly impacted by rising global temperatures. Credit: UNICEF/Farhana Satu

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing 2023. This can be attributed to heightened reliance on fossil fuels and the reluctance of industries worldwide to pivot to green energy practices. The rapid acceleration of global temperatures has alarmed scientists, with many expressing concern over the environmental, economic, and social implications of the worsening climate crisis.

In light of this fact, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked: “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”

In addition to being the hottest year, 2024 is also the first year in recorded history to have an average temperature of over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. According to data from the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60 C, marking a significant jump from last year’s average of 1.48 C.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has been signed by 196 countries at the UN. The objective of this agreement is to reduce carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and mitigate the climate crisis. Samantha Burgess, the deputy-director of C3S) confirmed that the rising temperatures do not make the Paris Agreement implausible but rather, makes the climate crisis much more urgent of an issue.

According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 percent. Major corporations and governments around the world have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions to achieve these goals.

Although industries around the world have slowly begun to adopt healthier fossil fuel consumption habits and alternative sources of energy, global consumption of coal has nearly doubled in the past three decades. On December 18, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a comprehensive report titled Coal 2024, that analyzed global consumption of coal in the 2020s and provided a forecast of coal use for the next three years.

The report states that in 2023, the global coal demand reached a record 8,687 metric tons, marking a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. The global demand for coal is expected to have grown by 1 percent in 2024. The increased demand for coal can be attributed to the relatively low supply of hydropower.

China is ranked as the world’s biggest consumer of coal, accounting for up to 56 percent of 2023’s global coal consumption, equivalent to 4,833 metric tons of coal. It is estimated that in 2024, Chinese coal consumption has increased by 1.1 percent, or an additional 56 metric tons.

Approximately 63 percent of China’s coal consumption is used to fuel the nation’s power sector. Despite a measured global increase in renewable energy use, China’s generation of electricity has declined in recent years.

According to the IEA, fixing the world’s over-reliance on coal consumption begins with China. “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Scientists and economists have predicted that the acceleration of the climate crisis will have severe environmental and economic impacts going forward. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, increased temperatures could cost the global economy approximately 38 trillion dollars in damages. Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the institute, states that much of these losses can be attributed to decreased agricultural yields and labor productivity, as well as damage to climate-sensitive infrastructures.

2024 has seen a host of climate-driven natural disasters that have devastated communities. Extreme weather, such as cyclones, monsoons, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and rising sea levels, continue to endanger the lives of millions of people. According to estimates from the UN, approximately 305 million people around the world will be in dire need of humanitarian assistance for support due to worsening natural disasters.

Other environmental impacts of climate change include deforestation, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, water cycle disruptions, and impacts on agricultural outputs, all of which have disastrous consequences for life on Earth. If global temperatures and carbon emissions are not reduced by 2030, these consequences could significantly increase in severity.

Scientists have warned that it is critical for global temperatures to not exceed 2 C. The world would experience widespread species loss, including several species critical for the sustenance of human life, including fish and many species of plants. Alice C. Hill, a Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow for energy and the environment, stated, “We’re headed toward disaster if we can’t get our warming in check and we need to do this very quickly.”

Another climate researcher at Potsdam, Anders Levermann, predicts that economic and environmental impacts will be far more severe for developing countries than for major commercial powerhouses such as the United States and China. “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said Levermann.

Furthermore, the countries that are the least responsible for climate change (developing nations) are expected to suffer the greatest economic and environmental impacts as they have the fewest resources “to adapt to its impacts.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Yasmine Sherif with children at a school in Ethiopia

By Yasmine Sherif
NEW YORK, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As 2024 comes to a close, I dare to say that this has been an especially gruesome year for millions upon millions of young children, their parents and their teachers. The world has witnessed one horrific crisis of cruelty, dispossession and human suffering after another.

Ukraine has entered its worst winter, suffering a brutal war with 65% of its energy supplies destroyed. While the West Bank is increasingly under attack, Gaza is still under bombardment, 1 million Palestinians lack shelter in the cold and, as the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator for OCHA, Tom Fletcher, stated, “Gaza is apocalyptic right now.”

Meanwhile, the gruesome internal armed conflict in Sudan rages on, having caused over 11 million internally displaced and over 3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Each carries the yoke of profound human suffering. From Lebanon, Yemen and the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to the Sahel and across sub-Saharan Africa, millions of children have very little hope left for a future.

Girls in Afghanistan beyond grade 6 remain shackled to their homes, banned from continuing their learning. Countless children have to live with the life-long consequences of surviving rape and brutal sexual violence – sometimes as mere babies – in armed conflicts in the DRC, North-East Nigeria and beyond. In the Sahel, children have to flee their villages on fire with nothing more than their last piece of cloth on their frail bodies. In Latin America, Venezuelan refugee children continue to struggle in exile, facing dangers in every corner, from trafficking and gangs, to missing out on the opportunity of an education and a future.

These are real examples of some of the 44 countries and contexts in which ECW invests financial resources towards a holistic quality education, safe learning environments and school meals.

The question is: are we all doing enough?

As many will know, Education Cannot Wait is a global platform in the UN system, hosted by UNICEF. It is made up of our High-Level Steering Group, our Executive Committee and our Secretariat, along with strategic public and private donor partners, Ministers of Education and numerous admirable and hard-working UN and civil society partners, as well as communities.

ECW is able to deliver with speed because it is a catalyst that brings together partners who operate with the same level of commitment, energy and determination. We are also able to deliver with depth and quality because we share the same vision of a child-centered approach and learning outcomes.

In the midst of this very dark year, Education Cannot Wat delivered on its mission, making more than US$228 million in investments, including US$44 million in First Emergency Responses, US$176 million in Multi-Year Resilience Programmes and US$8 million in Acceleration Facility grants – the latter for piloting innovative approaches.

Our funding gap was further closed as we reached nearly US$1 billion in financial resources for our 2023-2026 Strategic Plan. But more resources are urgently needed if we are to cater to the actual needs and reach, at minimum, 20 million children (pre-school, primary and secondary) and their teachers by the end of this strategic period.

With an additional US$570 million, we can completely close this gap. It is possible. When annual military expenditures worldwide stand at US$2.4 trillion, there is no justification whatsoever to fail in investing a minimum of US$570 million for Education Cannot Wait to support lifesaving and life-sustaining education for children enduring the brunt of man-made and climate crises; as well as to invest substantive financial resources to our sister-funds, such as the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) and the International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd).

As our ongoing analysis and research at Education Cannot Wait indicates, the number of children in emergencies and protracted crises – who are denied or deprived an education – is getting closer to a quarter of a billion children and adolescents. We can prevent this.

While we are all trying to do something, we can and must do so much more. It is possible.

This leads me to the founder and outgoing High-Level Steering Group Chair of Education Cannot Wait, The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown, the UN Special Envoy for Global Education. He had a vision that led to the creation of Education Cannot Wait. Joined by strategic partners in governments, the UN and civil society, he pulled through its establishment at the World Humanitarian Summit.

In just a few years, this vision has turned into over 11 million children, adolescents and teachers benefitting from a quality education in the harshest circumstances around the globe.

In the immortal words of Viktor Frankl: “The world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his [and her] best.”

The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown did his best and has made an incredible difference transforming millions of lives and generations to come.

Let his legacy inspire us all.

With this, on behalf of the whole Education Cannot Wait family, I wish you Happy Holidays. May 2025 be a brighter year.

Yasmine Sherif is Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The IOM estimates that one billion people live without legal identity, limiting their access to vital services and restricting their mobility. Credit: Shutterstock

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Perhaps demographers would consider designing a new classification system to separate from their estimates of the world’s total population –eight billion plus– the billion humans who live without legal identity and, thus, are deprived from the most basic rights.

The one billion figure seems to fall short if you consider that there are at least 150 million unregistered births.

 

The Facts

The United Nations specialised body: the International Organization for Migration (IOM) informs that “one in eight people in the world do not have legal identity and cannot have access to services.”

Today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration
Jens Godtfredsen

Specifically, the IOM reveals that “an estimated one billion people are living without legal identity and remain invisible to states, limiting their access to services and restricting their mobility, pushing them to undertake longer, more perilous, irregular routes.”

In view of this finding, the IOM brought together government representatives from Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central America for the Legal Identity and Rights-Based Return Management Conference at the UN City in Copenhagen.

The conference, held at the end of last October, convened government officials from countries of origin and destination and served to promote cross-regional exchanges on legal identity as a core enabler of safer and regular migration.

 

No Human Rights for Them

On this, Jens Godtfredsen, Ambassador for Migration, Return and Readmission at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, said during the conference that “today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration.”

That’s why it’s critical to come together to discuss concrete solutions to migration challenges, such as the global identity gap, by adopting a whole of government approach, stressed the Danish Government’s representative.

During this international conference, the Governments recognised that readmission processes for migrants are often “hindered by obstacles that can be eliminated or reduced by strengthening a state’s legal identity capacity, consular support, and collaboration among relevant government agencies.”

 

A Persistent Crisis

Despite these discussions, the grim reality persists. Rather, it is one continuous rise if you take the other dramatic fate of the millions of babies and children that are also ‘inexistente’

A 10 December 2024 report from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reveals significant progress in ending the problem of the “invisible” millions of babies each year who go unregistered.

Nearly eight in 10 children under five were successfully registered at birth in the last five years.

However, the report, The Right Start in Life: Global Levels and Trends in Birth Registration, also highlights a troubling reality: 150 million children under five still go unregistered, meaning they don’t officially exist as far as government systems.

According to UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, it is crucial that we provide “stronger efforts to ensure that every child, everywhere, is registered at birth.”

 

Beyond Formality: Why Birth Registration Matters

Birth registration is more than a legal formality – it is the gateway to rights and protections. It ensures a child’s legal identity, prevents statelessness, and facilitates access to essential services like healthcare, education, and social protection.

“Yet over 50 million children with registered births still lack birth certificates, a critical document for proving registration and securing nationality.”

 

Africa leads the disparities

Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Central and Southern Asia lead the way with less than 30 percent of unregistered births.

Lagging is Sub-Saharan Africa home to half of the world’s unregistered children.

Within this region, the disparities are stark: Southern Africa reaches 88 per cent of registrations while Eastern and Middle Africa remain behind at just 41 per cent.

“Rapid population growth in the region will exacerbate the challenge, with projections suggesting over 100 million unregistered children by 2030 if current trends persist.”

 

Barriers to Registration

Families face numerous barriers to registration, UNICEF explains.

They often mention long distances and multiple visits to registration facilities, a lack of awareness about the process and discrimination based on gender, ethnicity, or religion. High costs also cause recurrent issues.

 

Stateless and Displaced: The Unseen Millions

Add to all the above, the millions of statelessness who are forced to flee to nowhere as a consequence of the ongoing armed conflicts taking place in some of the most impoverished countries as it is the case of DR. Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Yemen, Haiti, Central America…

Let alone Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

Please do not forget the millions of victims of the climate carnage who are forced to be displaced across borders they most probably know nothing about, and as such pariahs are not formally recognised by states.

Still talking about human rights, democracy, equality…?

Maria Aparecida dos Anjos points to where the stream, now reduced to a trickle of water, reaches when flooded in the community of Santa Helena do Inglês, one of the riverside towns along the Rio Negro, a large tributary of the Amazon, in Brazil

By Mario Osava
MANAUS, Brazil, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The flow of the igarapé always dropped for three months every year, but now it has been dry for two years in a row, complains Maria Aparecida dos Anjos, looking at the trickle of water that when flooded reaches the stilts of her wooden house, 50 metres away and on a slope of more than 10 metres high.

The stream, known as igarapé to the riverside dwellers, flows into the Negro river, the great northern tributary of the Amazon, whose flow has dropped by more than 15 metres compared to the rainy season, affecting the essential river transport and the fish-based diet of the local population.

The unprecedented drought temporarily interrupted the growing bonanza of the 30 families of the Santa Helena do Inglês community since they received electricity from the government’s Light for All programme in 2012, reinforced in 2020 by solar energy provided by the non-governmental  Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS).“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn't work”: Nelson Brito de Mendonça.

The Vista Rio Negro community lodge, with eight rooms, has had to suspend its activities since August this year because of the drought. Ecotourism is an important source of income for the community near Anavilhanas, an attractive river archipelago.

Half of the lodge’s income is share among the community, while the rest goes to salaries, expenses and maintenance.

The guests would spread the word on “the suffering to get to the lodge”, having to walk hundreds of metres on uneven ground and mud, given the distance from the riverbank, and “no one would come anymore”, explained Nelson Brito de Mendonça, 48 and president of the community for the last 22 years, when IPS visited the place.

Berth at the Santa Helena do Inglês lodge, where the Negro River flows during the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Communities only accessible by river

Santa Helena is only accessible by river. It takes an hour and a half by speedboat to travel the 64-kilometre distance between the community and Manaus, the Amazonian capital of 2.2 million people. The “Englishman’s” addition comes from a British couple who lived there in the past.

“The inn used to receive occasional guests during the dry period, but it only closed completely in 2023 and 2004,” the two years of severe drought, said Keith-Ivan Oliveira, 54 and manager of the establishment, located at the entrance to the community, with a berth where the water comes in, but now hundreds of metres from the river.

He hopes to reopen the inn in January. For that “the water has to rise a lot, otherwise the big boats can’t reach it,” because of the risk of getting stuck on the sandbanks, he said.

Ecotourism, also practised by several local families in their small individual dwellings, was only made viable by electricity, especially from solar energy, which complemented the energy transmitted by cables, which was insufficient and frequently interrupted by trees blown down by rain and winds.

Air conditioning, indispensable for tourist comfort in the Amazonian heat, takes a lot of energy.

The Pousada Vista Rio de Negro, opened in 2014 as a source of income for the Santa Helena do Inglês community, home to 30 families of fisherpeople, cassava farmers and artisans in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

No power, no water, no food

“Other communities suffer water shortages, but we don’t because we have two sources of energy, the cable network and solar power. If there is no electricity, there is no water, which is then pumped,” Oliveira said.

Santa Helena uses water from an 86-metre deep well that reaches three elevated reservoirs in the highest part of the community. From there, the water drains by gravity to the consumption premises.

For Dos Anjos, who is 59 and heads a typical local family with eight children and six grandchildren, most of them living in Santa Helena, electricity means the comfort of having a refrigerator and not having to keep meat in salt, as well as fans to keep out the heat, television and other electrical appliances.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, 39, who also has eight children, benefits doubly. She is a cook at the inn, which earns her about 700 reais (US$120) a month when it is open, and she prepares ready-made food at home that she sells in the community. The refrigerator and electric oven are indispensable to her.

Keith-Ivan Oliveira, manager of the Pousada Vista Rio Negro, at the entrance of the ice factory under construction, which will have its own solar energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

She highlights the educational improvement for the children. “The school now has air conditioning, which is turned on when it is very hot, a benefit for everyone,” she said.

The electricity also favoured the internet connection that allows for virtual classes, which is necessary since the local school only covers the first five years of Brazilian primary education.

Elizabeth Ferreira da Silva, 16, a granddaughter of Dos Anjos, is completing her ninth and final year of primary school online. The knowledge she has accumulated on the web has facilitated the work she does with the inn’s communications, which is essential in attracting tourists from far away, including foreigners.

The community actually tried solar energy before, in 2011, but it was a very small plant that was soon rendered useless by lightning. Now it has a modern plant with 132 panels and 54 lithium batteries, installed by UCB Power, a company specialising in energy storage, which is sharing the project with FAS.

The solar panels of the plant that will supply the ice factory in the Amazonian community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. It will produce three tonnes per day. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Ice empowers fishing

In addition, Santa Helena already has another plant, with 84 panels, for the operation of an ice factory that is expected to be launched in a few months, with a capacity of three tonnes per day.

This is another project promoted by the FAS and vital to enhance the income of the Amazonian coastal villages, fisherpeople by nature.

“With our ice, we will no longer have to buy it in Manaus, to preserve the fish and sell it at a better price,” Mendonça celebrated. The inhabitants often lose their fish for lack of ice and “already had to give it for free to the trading companies,” he said.

“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn’t work,” he said, admitting that the ice factory only came about because the community managed to get help for the second solar plant.

The network of electricity distribution cables reached the Brazilian Amazonian community of Santa Helena in 2012, but with insufficient power and frequent interruptions. Solar plants installed later overcame the shortfall, but encourage activities that increase demand and require more energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

The river dwellers are gaining independence as fisherpeople and reducing their conservation and transport costs, which results in higher profits and better productivity and quality of the fish, Oliveira summarised.

This process points to the beginning of transformations in Santa Helena and the other 18 communities of the Rio Negro Sustainable Development Reserve (RDS), an environmental conservation area of 103,086 hectares in which its inhabitants remain, taking advantage of their natural resources but in a sustainable way.

The reserve was created in 2008 after eleven dwellers were arrested for illegal logging and sparked a movement for traditional peoples’ rights, sources of income and dignified livelihoods.

Negotiations with the Amazonas state authorities in the capital Manaus resulted in the creation of the RDS. As a result, the inhabitants of the reserve gained the exclusive right to fish in the local section of the Negro River and the departure of the companies that carried out industrial and predatory fishing.

The riverside dwellers became fisherpeople on a commercial scale and today have 13 boats, almost all of them with a capacity of five tons of fish. The ice factory has taken activity to a new level, even if the drought temporarily threatens the activity.

Timber extraction is limited to personal use and sustainably managed forests. Fishing, ecotourism and the cultivation of cassava (manioc), from which flour is made in the various “flour houses”, are the main sources of income.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, the inn’s cook, also produces meals for sale at her home, an activity that requires sufficient energy for her refrigerators and electric oven, in the small community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in Brazil’s northeastern Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

An example

This is a model to be replicated in the many Amazonian riverside communities, according to Valcleia dos Santos Lima, manager of sustainable community development at FAS.

The community of Bauana, in the municipality of Carauari, in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon, has already installed a plant with 80 photovoltaic panels and 32 batteries. In this case, the idea was to launch “a productive chain of factories that benefit from andiroba and murumuru oil,” this graduate in public policy management told IPS.

These are two Amazonian species, respectively a tree and a palm tree (Carapa guianensis and astrocaryum murumuru) whose fruits produce oils for medicinal and cosmetic use.

Energy is key for Amazonians to thrive, to add value to bio-economy products and to promote community-based tourism. In addition, almost one million inhabitants of the Amazon do not have electricity and 313 of the 582 communities in which the FAS operates only have it for four hours a day, Lima recalled.

“In this context, it is important that renewable energy can meet social demands as well as the demands of the economy and employment,” she concluded.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres briefs reporters on the situation in Syria. Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder-Debebe

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

In overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and his regime, Syria reaches the process of re-affirming its sovereignty, a process that the United Nations chief asserts must be led by the Syrian people.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke to reporters outside the Security Council, where he affirmed the UN’s commitment to support Syria during this period of transition. Under the caretaker government, the political process should follow the principles outlined in Security Council resolution 2254, which provides a roadmap for this transition and calls for a ceasefire, the establishment of non-sectarian governance, and free and fair elections to be held within 18 months.

“All communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” said Guterres.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, was in Damascus meeting with the leaders of the factions in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), where he observed that there was “a lot of hope” among civilians for “the beginning of a new Syria.”

“A new Syria that, in line with Security Council resolution 2254, will adopt a new constitution that will ensure that there is a social contract, a new social contract for all Syrians,” said Pederson.

Pressing issues remain that require urgent action. One such issue is the high number of missing persons in Syria. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria reported registering over 35,000 missing persons cases, with the caveat that this number is likely much higher.

In light of this, the UN General Assembly created the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria. Since its conception in June 2023, this office has been investigating the whereabouts and fates of missing persons in the country and to provide support to their family members.

UN Spokesperson for the Secretary General, Stéphane Dujarric, remarked that the issue of missing persons has been a part of the ongoing dialogue with the caretaker government. “It is such an emotional issue. Such a human issue that it should be at the forefront of everyone’s work,” said Dujarric.

Guterres announced on Thursday that Karla Quintana would be heading the institution, remarking that she and her team must be allowed to carry out their mandate. A human rights expert and legal scholar, Quintana was previously the National Commissioner for the Search of Missing Persons in Mexico from 2019 to 2023. During her tenure, she oversaw over 100,000 cases of disappearances and 70,000 unidentified bodies. She is expected to join the institution soon in Geneva, where their office is based.

The humanitarian response in Syria will also adapt during the “still rapidly shifting” conditions in the wake of the regime change. The UN and its partners have begun the rehabilitation of certain key facilities, such as hospitals and roads, in the more stable areas. Still, over 16 million people require humanitarian support. Even as humanitarian actors respond to pressing needs, issues emerge that present challenges to long-term stability. According to Dujarric, more than 1.3 million people have received food assistance since November 27. Yet, the “rapid devaluation” of Syrian currency has been impacting the availability of food.

“We need immediate humanitarian assistance, but we also need to make sure that Syria can be rebuilt, that we can see economic recovery and that we can hopefully see the beginning where we start the process to end sanctions,” said Pederson.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has called for donors to increase their funding for the humanitarian and recovery response plan. The Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria in 2024 called for USD 4.07 billion in funding, yet this has only been funded at 32 percent. The humanitarian plan for 2025 has yet to be announced.

There are also reports of hostilities in the northeast, even as the security situation is stabilizing in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo. Guterres remarked that ISIL continues to be a present threat in the country and that Israeli airstrikes have been recurring in the weeks since Assad’s departure. These attacks violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they must come to an immediate end, he warned.

“This is a decisive moment—a moment of hope and history, but also one of great uncertainty,” he said. “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow ends. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria who have suffered so much.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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A piece from Emo de Medeiros’s series Vodunaut in the “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” exhibit in La Conciergerie in Paris, France. The smartphones within the cowry shell-decorated helmets feature videos taken on four different continents. Credit: Megan Fahrney/IPS

By Megan Fahrney
COTONOU, Benin, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Construction of the new Museum of Modern Art is underway in Cotonou, Benin’s largest city. The museum, along with three others being built throughout the country, are part of the Beninese government’s extensive plan to ramp up the nation’s tourism industry and preserve its culture. It is expected to open at the end of 2026.

A traveling exhibition entitled “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” serves as the precursor to the new modern art museum. Originally, the exhibition launched in Cotonou in 2022 under the name “Art of Benin From Yesterday and Today: From Restitution to Revelation.” It then traveled to Morocco, Martinique, and it is now in Paris.

At the heart of the initiatives is the repatriation of 26 pieces of stolen art to Benin from France in 2021. The returned royal artefacts were showcased alongside the contemporary art in the original exhibition in Cotonou, and they have remained in the nation’s reserves since.

The exhibition brings together over one hundred pieces of art by 42 artists from Benin and the Beninese diaspora.

Yassine Lassissi, director of visual arts at the Agency for the Development of the Arts and Culture (ADAC), said the exhibit unites works from both distinguished, well-known Beninese artists and emerging young creators.

The featured pieces represent a range of different forms and artistic mediums, Lassissi said.

“There is really a diversity of techniques,” said Lassissi. “We have paintings, sculptures, installations, multimedia techniques, drawings, and photography.”

Artist Emo de Medeiros showcases two works in the exhibition: a series of fixtures entitled Vodunaut and a short film by the name “Tigritude I.”

De Medeiros said “Tigritude I” was inspired by a quote by Nigerian activist and author Wole Soyinka, who said, “A tiger doesn’t proclaim his tigritude, he pounces.” De Medeiros explores the role of the African diaspora in uniting technology and spirituality through the piece.

“It features an alternative past,” said de Medeiros. “An alternative futurism that is very dystopic with the intervention of futuristic tigers.”

Upon the return of the exhibition to Cotonou from Paris this January, Lassissi said she hopes the artwork can continue to travel to new destinations until the opening of the museum in 2026, including potentially to the United States.

While in Cotonou, the exhibition drew more than 220,000 visitors in just sixty days of opening.

“It was really a historic event,” Lassissi said.

In addition to the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou, Benin is constructing the International Museum of Memory and Slavery in Ouidah, the Museum of the Epic of the Amazons and Kings of Dahomey in Abomey, and the International Museum of Arts and Civilizations of Vodun in Porto-Novo.

The majority of contemporary art pieces from the traveling exhibition will be housed in the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou. The 26 returned royal artefacts will be displayed in the new museum in Abomey.

The government plans to situate the Museum of Modern Art within an entirely new Cultural and Creative Neighborhood, which would also consist of the Franco-Beninese Institute, coworking spaces, the Art Gallery, the artisanal village, and artists’ residences.

The nation hopes the museums will strengthen its culture and tourism industry, which it projects to be the second pillar of its economy after agriculture.

De Medeiros said he believes Cotonou had been “sorely missing” a contemporary art museum.

“This was something that was necessary,” said de Medeiros. “I think this definitely should be a platform [where] Beninese artists can showcase their work to the world.”

Note: Megan Fahrney is a U.S. Fulbright fellow. The views expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of the United States government.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. Credit: UNDP

By Javier Bronfman
SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As many middle-income countries in the world, Chile finds itself at a critical juncture. The country has made significant progress over the past decades in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction, yet many structural challenges remain.

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report highlights some of the most pressing issues facing the country today, answering a fundamental question: Why is it so hard to change? At the core of this question are institutional, cultural, and socio-economic factors that have made meaningful reforms difficult to implement.

Below, some important insights coming out of the report.

Institutional Difficulties

Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. The report emphasizes how the institutional structure of the country, and especially how the political parties and electoral system fosters a culture of revenge that promoted a constant blocking of the needed legislation and reforms.

Chile’s political system, characterized by a multi-party system with highly polarized factions, has increasing struggles to find common ground and reach agreements. Legislative deadlock arises when parties fail to collaborate, leading to stalled policies.

This institutional impasse is exacerbated by the requirement for supermajorities to pass key reforms, especially constitutional amendments, making it extremely challenging to address deep-rooted issues education, pension reform, or healthcare access.

Even though there is agreement on what reforms are needed, we observe a prevailing culture of revenge that ends up blocking most policy reform effort. Political discourse has become increasingly adversarial, making cooperation across political divides nearly impossible.

Instead of focusing on policy issues, political energy is often spent on character attacks and undermining the opposition. As a result, the public grows increasingly cynical, and trust in the political process erodes.

The inability to foster a culture of dialogue and mutual respect between political actors prevents any meaningful long-term change. Politicians are locked into short-term battles that perpetuate a cycle of revenge, further polarizing society and making structural reforms even harder to achieve, while people wait for things to change.

Difficulties in reconciling growth and inequality: a lack of Future Perspectives

The report also identifies a growing crisis of the future, a deep sense among many Chileans, particularly the youth, that the future is uncertain and precarious.

This “crisis of the future” is characterized by a lack of clear opportunities for advancement, whether in terms of social mobility, career prospects, or general quality of life.

In a society where inequality persists, many young people feel that the traditional paths to success, such as education and employment, no longer guarantee a better future. The rising cost of living, combined with the difficulty of finding secure, well-paying jobs, contributes to a sense of hopelessness.

This crisis is not just economic; it is also emotional and psychological, as more Chileans feel disconnected from the idea of progress and personal development.

This feeling of a “lost future” is also compounded by the existential threat of climate change, which is hitting Chile particularly hard. From severe droughts to devastating wildfires, the environmental crises further erode any sense of stability, reinforcing the feeling that the future is uncertain and full of risk.

A path forward

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report offers a sobering analysis of why change is so hard in Chile today. Institutional blockages, a culture of retaliation in politics, social inequality, and a pervasive crisis of future perspectives all converge to create a challenging landscape for reform.

Yet, despite these difficulties, the report also points to the potential for new paths forward. Building a more inclusive, forward-looking society requires a shift in political culture, one, as well as economic models that prioritize equality and sustainability.

The challenges are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By fostering greater political cooperation, addressing institutional inefficiencies, and creating a shared vision of a more equitable future, Chile has the opportunity to break through these barriers.

This will only be possible if the current political and electoral system are reformed towards one that fosters dialogue and long-term compromises. Fortunately, most political sectors agree on those needed reforms, will they be able to come to a national agreement, remains to be seen.

Javier Bronfman is Regional Adviser on SDG Integration

Source: UNDP

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNOHCR)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The United States, long described as a country built largely by immigrants, is planning to clamp down on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers entering the country—which averaged about 2.4 million in 2022-2023, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.

The incoming Trump administration is calling for “mass deportations” of mostly illegal aliens and undocumented workers.

As he plans to continue his hardline on migration policies, President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office a second time beginning January 20, has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States—which is guaranteed by the 14th amendment of the US constitution.

Trump has also warned Canada and Mexico that he will penalize both countries by imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods– unless they restrict the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.

During his last presidency (2017-2021), Trump triggered a global backlash when he singled out both Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” eliciting protests from the 55-member African Union (AU). Trump also came under fire for his insulting statements that “all Haitians have AIDS” and Nigerians who visit the US “would never go back to their huts.”

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the good news is the toppling of the authoritarian Bashar administration in Syria. But the bad news is that millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey (estimated at more than three million) may be forced to return to Syria. So will Syrian refugees in Germany.

In a report December 14, the New York Times said no other European nation has welcomed as many Syrian refugees as Germany.

While more than 100,000 are now German citizens, the influx is blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the xenophobic far-right political party, Alternative for Germany, which routinely denigrates single young men from Syria and Afghanistan, the Times said.

The rising number of refugees and asylum seekers in the US have been triggered by a surge in political violence and authoritarianism in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told IPS the world is in the midst of the Great Migration Clash, which is a bitter struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.

More than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country and no less than a billion people say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move into their countries, he pointed out.

“Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle. The supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries”.

Increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration with many upon arrival claiming asylum, he said.

“The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America”, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

According to Cable News Network (CNN) December 19, President-elect Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan said plans are underway to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale and that he’ll need funding from Congress to do so.

In a CNN interview, Homan said he will need a minimum of 100,000 beds to detain undocumented immigrants — more than doubling the 40,000 detention beds ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is currently funded for — and needs more ICE agents to carry out Trump’s mass deportation promises.

Homan also said the incoming administration plans to construct new deportation facilities in large metropolitan areas and bring back mass worksite immigration raids — a potentially significant development for some industries that rely on undocumented immigrants’ labor.

At a press conference outside the US Capitol last year, Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) joined New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams, members of New York’s Congressional delegation, and immigration activists, to call for federal action on an agenda to address the immediate asylum seeker crisis as well as reform immigration policy infrastructure for the long-term.

“We live in a country where everyone’s family has, at some point, chosen to come to these shores seeking freedom or a better life. That’s why we hear American politicians, and even Americans themselves, love to call themselves “a nation of immigrants”.

“It’s been nearly 250 years since the founding of our nation, and still, America has managed to maintain that self-image – whether through the forced migration of millions of African slaves, restrictive immigration laws based on unjust fears of “inferior” races, and nativist movements that encouraged immigrants to assimilate or leave”.

But the true reality of America’s immigrant heritage is much more complicated beyond myth, she said.

As a senior member of the House Homeland Security Committee, Co-Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Foreign Affairs and Immigration Task Force, and founding co-chair of the House Caribbean and House Haiti Caucuses, “I have seen the glaring inequities and civil rights violations plaguing our immigrants in this nation”.

“Let me be very clear: Our immigration system is broken, and I will not relent until our immigration system reflects a modern and equitable approach to this issue. The time has come for the values of our nation to be reflected in our immigration policies.”

“We need innovative policies and community support to reimagine the immigration system in a humane, just, and fair manner. I’m proud to stand here with my colleagues to demand additional federal aid to address the asylum seeker crisis.

“They came here fleeing everything from political and economic conflict to natural disasters and health crises. They came seeking a better life. They came and made this nation a better and more prosperous place. We are a nation of immigrants, founded by immigrants, so we must do better for our immigrants”, Clarke said.

In contrast to migrant-origin countries, Chamie said, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security for migrants and their children.

The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country, he pointed out.

Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobia, racism, hostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invaders, infiltrators, criminals, rapists and terrorists, and call for them to go home and to be deported.

The United Nations, the international agencies and governments, especially in destination countries, have been largely ineffective in addressing the Great Migration Clash, which is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, warned Chamie.

Speaking on International Migrants Day December 18, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “this is a day to remind ourselves of the challenges migrants can face — from prejudice and discrimination to outright violence and abuse, and the unimaginable cruelty of human trafficking”.

And, in a joint call to action, the UN Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the UN Special Rapporteurs on Trafficking in Persons, alongside humanitarian organizations, called on States to protect refugees and migrants in distress-at-sea.

“The call is prompted by the rising casualties that we often talk about here. Each year, thousands of refugees and migrants risk deadly journeys in desperate attempts to escape violence, persecution, and poverty,” said Guterres.

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By Herbert Wulf
DUISBURG, Germany, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Donald Trump, president-elect of the USA, wants to end the Ukraine war within a day, as he has emphasized several times, but without saying how. Despite the brutal clashes on the ground in Ukraine, do negotiations now have a chance? Are we near to a “ripe moment” for negotiations?

The war continues unabated. There is no end in sight. Can we hope that Donald Trump will find a personal connection to Vladimir Putin to end this war? The phone call on 15 November between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin – the first telephone contact in two years – was sobering because Putin only reaffirmed his already known positions: He is ready for negotiations, but only on his terms. In other words, recognition of the “new territorial realities” and “consideration of Russian security interests”. In concrete terms, this would mean the handover of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are occupied by Russia, and Crimea. Scholz called for negotiations with the aim of a “just and lasting peace”, which is primarily aimed at the withdrawal of Russian troops.

The Russian attack and Ukrainian defence have turned into a war of exhaustion, with current military advantages for Russia. The Russian strategy can be described as an escalation with the hope of a military victory. So far, Ukraine and its supporters have reacted with intense resistance. Western support has escalated with the delivery of more effective weapons and belief that victory is still possible. But increasingly a certain fatigue can be felt among them and Trump has made it clear that the massive support will no longer come from the USA.

What is the consequence for the Ukraine war, and what is the alternative to this battle with more and more deaths? Negotiations now? Is there a chance for peace without military victory? But neither side is ready yet for serious negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was not happy about Scholz’s initiative and spoke of a policy of appeasement, also because the call counteracts Putin’s international isolation.

The American political scientist William Zartman speaks of the necessary “ripeness” of a conflict as a prerequisite for the success of negotiations. The concept of “ripe moments” centres, according to Zartman, on the adversaries’ perceptions of “hurting stalemates”. The willingness to negotiate increases when both sides realize that a military victory is not possible and that the military potential, i.e. soldiers and weapons, is no longer sufficient. The depressing conclusion is that today, even after almost 1,000 days of war, this situation does not exist in Russia or Ukraine. But the increasing logistical bottlenecks on both sides, the irreplaceable, irrecoverable and permanent losses are perhaps an indication that the conflict is in a process of maturing for negotiations. Even Russia, with its present territorial advances, seems not able to replace its casualties. The arrival of about 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia raises the question of whether the Kremlin can make up for its enormous losses.

Different scenarios

Four scenarios are conceivable, all of which are far from an ideal solution.

First, it is not inconceivable that the war, which has now lasted almost three years, with all its destruction and loss of life, will continue for another few years without an end in sight.

Second, Donald Trump could actually strike a deal with Vladimir Putin, presumably at the expense of Ukraine. Trump believes in deals. Russia would receive the parts of Ukraine it occupies, a demilitarized zone would be established along this border within Ukraine, Ukraine would receive security guarantees (from NATO, the United Nations, or a grouping of neutral states), and a peace treaty would be postponed until later. And “later” could mean decades without a peace treaty.

Third, one side could win militarily. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. The Kremlin firmly believes in this possibility and is assured by its territorial gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist at the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and then had to significantly limit its war goals, the overthrow of the government in Kyiv and the integration of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

The fourth scenario, a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. There are a number of conflicts that are in this state of having no real solution. In recent years, the situation in Korea has been referred to several times in order to consider a similar solution to the Ukraine war. This scenario is perhaps the most likely.

Ceasefire and a frozen conflict: The Korean solution

Of course, every conflict is different, and the respective conditions also differ. Nevertheless, there might be both conflict patterns and patterns of conflict resolution that could provide clues to Ukraine’s future. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the US, pointed out parallels to the Korean War in an op-ed in the New York Times after a year of the Ukraine war. More than 70 years ago, in July 1953, an armistice agreement and the establishment of a demilitarized zone led to the freezing of this war and the division of Korea into two separate states.

Recently, Joseph S. Nye, one of the most influential political scientists in the USA, pointed to a “Korean solution” in an article entitled “What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?”. He writes: “If Ukraine defines victory as the return of all land that Russia has occupied since 2014, victory is not in sight. But if it aims to maintain its independence as a prosperous democracy linked to Europe, while reserving its right to the ultimate return of its territory, victory remains possible.” The Korean War also swayed back and forth from 1950 to 1953. Like what is happening now in Ukraine, neither the north nor the south, nor their respective supporters, were prepared to end the war quickly because of hopes of a military victory. The Korean armistice agreement of July 1953 stipulated the status quo ante with the division of the country at the 38th parallel. Korea is still a divided country, and the conflict is a frozen one. A peace treaty was never concluded and the so-called demilitarized zone along the border between the two states is one of the most militarized borders in the world. A permanent ceasefire was reached without a peace agreement.

Proponents of a “Korean solution” point out that the destruction and loss of life has ended, and that South Korea has now become a resilient democracy and emerging economic power. Democratic development and integration in Western Europe could then follow in the same way in Ukraine.

Critics of such a solution describe the Korean ceasefire as a “non-solution”. The Swiss historian Roland Popp, who researches at the Military Academy of the University ETH Zurich, writes that this Korean solution “also covers four decades of one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world, massacres of tens of thousands of civilians … or the assassination of the president by the director of the South Korean CIA in 1979.” And he points to the immense costs and uncertainties for Western Europe.

In 1953, a Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission was set up in Korea. In the more than seven decades of the existence of the armistice agreement there have been numerous military skirmishes on the border. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a threat, just as the North calls the South Korean military with its ally the United States a threat. Precisely for this reason, is it remarkable that this agreement has prevented a new war with heavy losses for more than seven decades. The consequences of a Korean solution for the situation in Europe would probably also mean, as in the case of the Korean peninsula, arms races as during the early days of the Cold War

Neutral states could also play an important role in ending the Ukraine war: for example, India, South Africa, Brazil or Switzerland. If neither side makes significant gains in Ukraine, a ceasefire would not be impossible. Presumably, the Ukrainians would not regain all the territories occupied by Russia. Russia could interpret the abandonment of its actual goal as a partial victory in order to save face. The conflict would be frozen. Not a nice result, but still the end of the war. A frozen conflict is better than a hot war. But the history of frozen wars shows that they can turn into hot wars again at any time. In the case of Ukraine, the imposition of an unfair solution could possibly result in Ukrainian partisan resistance.

A possible fifth scenario, a peace agreement that is binding under international law, with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, currently seems to be completely out of the question.

Related articles by this author:
– Agonizing over Europe’s Defence: Some Narratives are Getting Ahead of the Facts
– Boots on the ground
– Ten Take-Aways on Russia’s War and Five Ideas for the Future of Ukraine and Beyond

Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

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The United Nations Security Council met on December 17 to discuss Syria’s transitional period following the end of Assad’s regime. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came about following a series of coordinated offensive missions spearheaded by the Syrian opposition which resulted in the seizure of the capital city Damascus. In the days following the fall of Assad’s government, the Syrian Civil War has reached a phase of heightened insecurity, plunging Syria into a state of nationwide insecurity.

On December 7, the Syrian opposition, also known as the Southern Operation Room , led by the Islamic political organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, coordinated an offensive mission in the Rif Dimashq region of Syria, resulting in the Syrian Arab Army withdrawing their forces from Damascus. This, coupled with a concurrent offensive mission, led by the opposition and the Syrian National Army, resulted in the rebels seizing control of Damascus and Homs, marking the end of Assad’s regime in Syria.

For approximately 53 years, the Assad clan has exercised authoritarian rule over Syria, with an extensively documented history of mass incarcerations, executions, and violations of international humanitarian law.

According to a press release from the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRC), during Assad’s 13 year rule over Syria, there have been 35,000 documented cases of enforced disappearances, with accurate numbers likely being far larger.

In a press release issued by Amnesty International, Secretary General Agnès Callamard emphasized the brutality of the Assad family’s rule, saying, “Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.”

Following Assad’s departure, thousands of Syrian civilians flooded the streets to celebrate. World leaders also expressed their satisfaction with the end of Assad’s regime. In a televised speech, U.S. president Joe Biden said “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice.”

“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” said United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other nations such as France, Canada, and Germany, have indicated relief after Assad’s fall.

The United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) have reported plans to further monitor the developing situation in Syria and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region. The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in a social media statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter). The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, called for urgent talks in Geneva to discuss measures that will be taken to achieve an “orderly political transition.”

Following Assad’s removal from office, the overall security situation in Syria has become increasingly volatile. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between armed coalitions remain regular in Syria, particularly in Aleppo and Al-Raqqa. Since the escalation of hostilities in late November, an estimated 1.1 million people in Syria have been internally displaced, particularly in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Homs.

According to a report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), civilian casualties in Syria have risen significantly since the escalation of hostilities, with hundreds having been killed or injured from November to December 8. North-west Syria has seen the most violence, with over 75 civilians having been killed, including 28 children and 11 women. At least 282 others have sustained critical injuries as well, including 106 children and 56 women.

Partners of the UN have discovered at least 52 minefields scattered across Syria in the first ten days of December. Syria’s healthcare system has seen considerable disruptions due to damage from warfare and looting. Hospitals have become overwhelmed due to the sheer influx of injured persons, with psychological distress and trauma being widespread, particularly in children. Movement restrictions and curfews have significantly hampered humanitarian missions.

Additionally, Israel has capitalized on the chaos in Syria, targeting the nation’s military assets. Syria has long been recognized as an ally of Iran, an enemy of Israel. On December 10, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched 480 airstrikes on military operations and equipment in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee the security of Israel as well as to achieve a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria. Despite the absence of Irani forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria.

Nadav Shoshani, a spokesperson for the IDF, denied reports that Israeli forces are to head toward Damascus, but confirmed that they were operating beyond the buffer zone in Syria. However, Shoshani stated that Israel will not interfere with the “internal events” occurring in Syria.

Political analysts have expressed concern for the future of the Middle East following the toppling of Assad’s regime. Marco Carnelos, the former Middle East peace process coordinator special envoy for Syria for the Italian government, described Assad’s ousting as “one of the biggest geopolitical tectonic shifts since the Sykes-Picot agreements in 1916 and the understandings reached at the end of the First World War,” adding that certain nations, such as Iraq and Algeria will have a mixed reaction, while others “will breathe a sigh of relief.”

Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be particularly sensitive to further developments in Syria that are motivated by civilian dissidence, fearing that Syria could inspire similar reactions in other Middle Eastern sovereignties.

Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), informed reporters that Arab states will “make efforts to contain HTS and build alliances with an HTS-government primarily guided by the hope that what emerges will be friendly to them and their interests” in the wake of this major transitional period of Syrian history.

Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, states that the success of the Syrian opposition will likely “inspire jihadis in their own countries” to commit similar acts of rebellion and will also shine a light on the injustices committed by their governments.

The international community remains hopeful that the demise of Assad’s regime will bring forth an opportunity for positive development in Syria. Rima Farah, a lecturer at Northeastern University who studies the cultural and political history of the Middle East, opines that the end of Assad’s dictatorship provides the Syrian people with an indispensable opportunity to construct “a (democratic) state with a constitution that protects everyone.”

Political analysts have noted numerous parallels in the Syria situation and the protests that resulted in Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh to India. Both the Syria and Bangladesh situations were born of civilian discontent with their governments, resulting in protests and acts of rebellion, causing the incumbent leader to abandon their offices and flee to another country.

This is a testament to the importance of the civilian role in policy and decision-making processes. Furthermore, these two developments show that the government must be held accountable for measures that do not serve everyone equally.

Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), told our correspondent that accountability is crucial in rebuilding Syria after 14 years of political instability. “This moment carries great hope as much as it raises huge challenges and legitimate uncertainty for Syrians. Accountability is one of the most important issues. Any transitional justice initiative should be inclusive, involve victims and ensure accountability for all past violations and abuses, those committed by the previous government and by all other parties to the conflict. To that end, the current authorities should ensure the preservation of evidence and facilitate the work of our Office as well as international mechanisms,” said Al-Kheetan.

Special Envoy Pederson added that it is imperative for Israeli bombardment and clashes between armed groups in Syria to stop to achieve substantial progress. “There is a real opportunity for change, but this opportunity needs to be grasped by the Syrians themselves and supported by the UN and the international community,” Pederson said.

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The port of Manzanillo, with the largest cargo movement in Mexico, is expanding its facilities without an environmental impact study. Credit: Colima Sostenible

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The expansion of the port of Manzanillo, Mexico’s most important port in terms of cargo movement and located on the central Pacific coast, has major environmental impacts, as well as presenting climatic risks.

Work began on 23 November without the required environmental impact study, and includes the extension of the port, the construction of a gasoline storage terminal and a gas and steam power plant in the western state of Colima.“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”: Hugo Smith.

For independent expert Hugo Smith, the impact is “tremendous”, as the area hosts significant economic activity, such as agriculture, livestock, salt flats and artisanal fisheries.

“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”, he told IPS from the port city of Tampico, in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas.

The specialist stressed the lack of adequate planning, because “in other places they ask for climate forecasts, in this case there has to be very well-planned works, they have to be monitored. There is talk of sustainability as a political slogan, but there are no indicators.”

The expansion includes a storage and distribution facility of the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) with a capacity for 3.7 million barrels of fuel, another maritime terminal with a capacity to move five million containers, and roadways.

The port site currently covers 437 hectares, housing 19 docks and warehouses.

With the work, due to be completed in 2030, the port area will be extended to 1,800 hectares in the second basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon. There are four regulating basins which capture the rain and separate the lagoon by roads and sluice gates.

With a public-private investment of US$3,480 million, the Mexican government is seeking to turn the port of the coastal city of Manzanillo into the largest in Latin America and the 15th largest globally, by doubling its total capacity.

The expansion is part of a scheme to modernise 10 Mexican federal ports.

The area of Manzanillo, a city in the western Mexican state of Colima, will be impacted in the long term by sea level rise, including the port area that is being expanded and is on the left side of the map depicted. Credit: Climate Central

Important habitat

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has maintained the plans of her predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), to revive old projects. The expansion of Manzanillo dates back to the Felipe Calderón administration (2006-2012) and López Obrador formally took it up again in 2019, but without advancing its development.

The city of Manzanillo, with 159,000 people and more than 800 kilometres west of Mexico City, is surrounded by the lagoons of Valle de las Garzas and Cuyutlán, which are vital to the area’s environment because of the animal and plant species they shelter.

The governmental National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Conabio) lists as ecosystem values the presence of salt cultivation, artisanal fishing, mangroves, native and migratory birds, as well as crocodiles and turtles, in the 7,200-hectare Cuyutlán lagoon, located parallel to the Pacific coast.

The ecosystem holds 90% of the wetlands in the state of Colima and is registered by Conabio as a priority marine and hydrological region.

In fact, in the last decade the agency warned that the port expansion could “potentially increase water levels and alter important habitats for nesting and feeding of organisms such as birds.”

The works will require, it said, “the opening of new channels of communication with the sea, as well as deeper navigation channels, which could provoke more severe changes in water levels and circulation.”

Hence the importance of the environmental impact assessment, in order to know the repercussions and the mitigation measures envisaged.

In 2017, then president Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) issued a call for an environmental assessment, but it is ignored if it was carried out. In any case, the works were never undertaken.

Panoramic view of the Cuyutlán Lagoon, which has four basins. The expansion of the port of Manzanillo began in basin 2, with serious environmental impacts. Basins 3 and 4 are considered wetlands of international importance for their natural diversity. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Two lagoons in danger

The lagoon consists of four lagoon basins, the last two of which are adjacent to the area of the expansion.

These are sites of international importance since 2011 under the Convention on Wetlands, as they support vulnerable endangered species and threatened ecological communities; populations of plant and animal species important for maintaining the biological diversity of the region.

It is also home to some 20,000 waterfowl and migratory birds, as well as providing food for fish and a nesting ground for turtles.

To the north of the port is the 268-hectare Valle de las Garzas lagoon, which suffers from high levels of sediment due to soil loss from the watershed and urban activities, and has high levels of nutrients due to discharges from nearby treatment plants and human activities. It is therefore in worse condition than the Cuyutlán lagoon.

Despite its condition, the local environmental authorities have not yet declared it a protected area. Meanwhile, the fourth basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon is about to receive this status, although it does not seem that this protection will impede the already initiated port expansion project.

The area also faces climate threats. Between 2030 and 2050, the coastal areas around Manzanillo and inside the Cuyutlán lagoon will be flooded by rising sea levels, according to forecasts by the international scientific platform Climate Central.

In addition, the port area is exposed to increased flooding from rainfall, according to climate studies by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Dead mangroves on the shore of the Cuyutlán lagoon, the most important wetland in Mexico’s western Pacific. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Inconsistency

Since 2023, the Ministry of the Navy, which manages the federal ports, has been implementing the Port Decarbonisation Strategy, which aims to reduce emissions in operations.

In what is the second-largest economy of Latin America, 227.75 million tonnes were handled between January and October in the 103 ports of the National Port System (SPN). A figure 7.5% lower than that of the same period in 2023.

Manzanillo handled 30.77 million tonnes – almost 1% less than in the same period of 2023 – up to last November.

In 2022, the 36 ports of the 18 SPN administrations emitted 1.33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, almost double the level of 2021, according to the national strategy. Carbon equivalent measures pollution in reference to CO2. Manzanillo released 30% more emissions into the atmosphere than in 2022.

Measurements involve the activity of cargo ships, vessels parked in port, cargo handling equipment, locomotives and cargo trucks, as well as the operation of terminals, operators, service providers, shipping lines, shipping agents, customs, land transport and rail companies.

The Decarbonisation Strategy stipulates emission reductions of 25 % by 2030 and 45 % by 2050, but only sets out general measures, such as planning resilient infrastructure, harmonising management and planning instruments, such as concession titles, master development programmes and operating rules.

It also sets out how to identify, describe and programme the implementation of low-emission energy policies.

Port sustainability includes the consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects, such as pollution, dredging of nearby areas, return on investment and job creation.

But the installation of more hydrocarbon terminals, fuel storage facilities and a gas-fired power plant contradict the strategy’s goals. Official publicity presents it as sustainable because of its gas consumption, despite the fact that it is a highly polluting fossil fuel.

Moreover, the 2021-2026 master programme for port development does not address environmental considerations.

As is the case in the rest of Latin America, no Mexican port appears on the project map of the World Ports Sustainability Programme, an association that brings together the world’s largest environmentally friendly facilities.

Expert Smith pointed to a greater focus on ship operations to improve port sustainability.

“Ships are increasingly environmentally constrained. Ports do not provide renewable energy. Decarbonisation must focus on ships and the biggest polluters are container ships,” he said.

Malagasy woman preparing fish on the beach of Lavanono in the far south of Madagascar. The IPBES Transformative Change Report suggests that principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

By Busani Bafana
WINDHOEK, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Nature is at a tipping point. With human activity having pushed up to 1 million plant and animal species close to extinction, securing sustainable development and halting global biodiversity collapse is no longer just an option but a requisite for human wellbeing.

A new report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) clarifies that only transformative change can reverse the biodiversity crisis and reset humanity’s relationship with nature for just and sustainable futures.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, also known as the Transformative Change Report, launched this week during the 11th IPBES Plenary session being held in Namibia, has a stark warning: biodiversity decline is galloping ahead, whipped up by humanity’s disconnect from and dominance over nature, coupled with the inequitable concentration of power and wealth. The prioritization of short-term individual and material gains, the report argues, has also led to the destruction of the fabric of life.

Change and Act Now

The report highlights the need for addressing biodiversity loss through what the authors describe as transformative change—fundamental systemwide shifts in views, including ways of thinking, knowing, and seeing; structures, such as ways of organizing, regulating, and governing; and practices, including ways of doing, behaving, and relating. According to the report, dominant worldviews, structures, and practices have played a significant role in accelerating biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that exploring alternative approaches could contribute to reducing biodiversity loss and achieving a more just and sustainable future.

Prof. Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

 

Prof. Arun Agrawal (India & USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

 

Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

“Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent,” says Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA), co-chair of the assessment with Arun Agrawal (India & USA) and Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). “There is a closing window of opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and to prevent triggering the potentially irreversible decline and the projected collapse of key ecosystem functions,” she added.

O‘Brien cites that under current trends, there is a serious risk of crossing several irreversible biophysical tipping points, including die-off of low-altitude coral reefs, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, and loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Justifying the urgency of transformative change, the report notes that past and current conservation approaches have failed to stop the loss of the variety of animals, plants, fungi, and microorganisms. The cost of inaction is high, the report warns.

The report estimates that the cost of addressing biodiversity loss and the decline of nature around the world could double if actions are delayed even by a decade. The report also examines potential opportunities for businesses and innovation through sustainable economic approaches, including nature-positive economies, ecological economies, and Mother-Earth-centric economies.

But the report offers hope. Implementing sustainable solutions to reverse biodiversity loss could generate business opportunities estimated at more than USD 10 trillion in business while supporting 395 million jobs globally by 2030, the report says, stating that transformative change can be created by everyone. In addition, governments can enable transformative change by fostering policies and regulations to benefit nature.

Meeting Sustainable and Biodiversity Goals

The report builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change. The latest assessment, prepared over three years, was produced by more than 100 leading experts from 42 countries.

Agrawal says promoting and accelerating transformative change is essential to meeting the 23 action-oriented targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.

“Transformative change is rarely the outcome of a single event, driver, or actor,” says Agrawal. “It is better understood as changes that each of us can create and multiple cascading shifts that trigger and reinforce one another, often in unexpected ways.”

While addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss is challenging as it is complex, it can be done, argues Garibaldi, co-chair of the assessment. He says a new transformation on the scale of the industrial revolution is needed—but one that conserves and restores the biodiversity of the planet rather than depleting it.

The cover of the Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. Credit: IPBES

Case studies of initiatives around the world with transformative potential show that positive outcomes for diverse economic and environmental indicators can happen in a decade or less.

The Transformative Change Report highlights that countries and people can advance deliberate transformative change for global sustainability by conserving places of value to people and nature that exemplify biocultural diversity. Furthermore, people can drive systematic change and mainstream biodiversity in the sectors most responsible for nature’s decline.

“The agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure and urban development, mining, and fossil fuel sectors contribute heavily to the worst outcomes for nature,” the report notes. “Transformative approaches such as multifunctional and regenerative land use can promote a variety of benefits for nature and people.”

Inclusivity Key to Nature Transformation

While researching the report, the authors assessed 850 separate “visions of a sustainable world for nature and people,” but found many did not challenge the status quo.

“The diversity of societies, economies, cultures, and peoples means that no single theory or approach provides a complete understanding of transformative change or how to achieve it,” said O’Brien. “Many knowledge systems, including Indigenous and local knowledge, provide complementary insights into how it occurs and how to promote, accelerate, and navigate the change needed for a just and sustainable world.”

At the launch, on Wednesday, December 18, Agrawal said every global problem is often, in essence, unfolding in local context, and what is seen as a global problem is closely and intimately connected to Indigenous knowledge relevant to a local context. He said, for example, adaptation efforts relevant in the Arctic would not be relevant in tropical forests, and emissions that are caused by what is happening in agriculture are not relevant to emissions caused by coal mines or large factories.

“All of these things that we consider as global problems, we need to think about the local particularity of the problem that gets aggregated into a global problem,” said Agrawal.

Coordinating lead author Rafael Calderon Contreras added that humanity was facing the most pressing and challenging crisis in history and that it was critical to learn from Indigenous communities on solutions to tackling the biodiversity crisis.

“What we found in our assessment is that we can learn from each other and that everyone has a role to play in achieving this vision of transformation that the assessment is pushing,” said Contreras.

Visions for living in harmony with nature are more likely to succeed when they emerge from inclusive, rights-based approaches and stakeholder processes and when they incorporate collaboration for change across sectors, the authors suggest.

Principles and Obstacles

The report says embracing the principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

“The impacts of actions and resources devoted to blocking transformative change, for example through lobbying by vested interest groups or corruption, currently overshadow those devoted to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity,” says O’Brien.

Garibaldi says studies have suggested that increasing biodiversity, protecting natural habitats, and reducing external inputs in agricultural landscapes can enhance crop productivity, for instance, by enhancing pollinator abundance and diversity.

Other strategies that can be used to advance transformative change include changing economic systems for nature and equity, for example, eliminating subsidies that contribute to biodiversity loss. Global public explicit subsidies to sectors driving nature’s decline ranged from USD 1.4 trillion to USD 3.3 trillion per year in 2022, and total public funding for environmentally harmful subsidies has increased by 55 percent since 2021.

It is estimated that between USD 722 billion and USD 967 billion per year is needed to manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystem integrity. Currently, USD 135 billion per year is spent on biodiversity conservation, leaving a biodiversity funding gap of up to USD 824 billion per year.

Transforming governance systems to be inclusive, accountable, and adaptive will promote transformation, the report says, noting that shifting societal views and values to recognize human-nature interconnectedness was strategic for the world to act with haste.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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