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Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world? Credit: Shutterstock.

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Alarmists, mainly politicians, economists and wealthy elites, are announcing that the world’s demographic sky is collapsing. The world’s demographic sky is not collapsing but simply changing.

And that demographic change should not be blamed on the emancipation of women. It’s also somewhat perplexing that the alarmists don’t give consideration to the failure of men as a major contributing factor to the world’s changing demographic sky.

In general, men have neither recognized nor adjusted to the major economic, social and cultural changes that have taken place at the workplace, the community and the household as well as in their personal relationships with women.

Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The exceptional high rates of global population growth and relatively young age structures that were experienced during the second half of the 20th century are over.

It is also indeed the case that many countries worldwide are expected to experience population decline and population ageing over the coming decades.

In the early 1960s world population grew at a record high of 2.3 percent, global fertility rate was five births per woman and the world’s median age was 21years. Today the world’s population growth rate is estimated at 0.9 percent, the global fertility rate is slightly more than two births per woman and the world’s median age is 31 years.

By mid-century the growth rate of the world’s population is expected to decline to 0.4 percent. At that time the global fertility rate is expected to have fallen to two births per woman with the world’s median age increasing to 37 years.

The declines in demographic growth rates accompanied by population ageing are largely the result of the reproductive decisions made by millions of women and men concerning the number and spacing of births. Those decisions are based largely on their personal desires and social and economic circumstances.

The world’s population is now slightly more than 8 billion, having quadrupled during the past hundred years. Nearly all demographers appreciate that world population will likely peak during the current century

According to the United Nations projections (medium variant), the world’s population is projected to continue growing, likely peaking at 10.3 billion in about sixty years. After reaching that level, the world’s population is expected to decline slowly to 10.2 billion by the close of the 21st century (Figure 1).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Despite the expected additional two billion people on the planet, alarmists fret by noting that for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century, the planet’s human population is going to decline. They are distressed and declare that many countries are facing the dire prospects of demographic collapse.

The expected declines in the population size of many countries over the coming decades is largely the result of fewer births than deaths. And the reason for the fewer births is below replacement fertility levels, i.e., less than about 2.1 births per woman.

More than one hundred countries, representing two-thirds of world’s population, are experiencing below replacement fertility (Figure 2).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In 2023, the populations of some 80 countries and areas experienced a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 3).

 

Source: National surveys and United Nations.

 

In the absence of compensating immigration, most of the countries with below replacement level fertility are facing the prospects of demographic decline accompanied by considerable population aging. Among the countries facing population decline in the coming years are China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Ukraine (Figure 4)

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world?

According to many alarmists, the emancipation of women is responsible because emancipated women are simply choosing not to have enough births to ensure their country’s population growth.

In large part due to the ominous concerns being raised about population decline, many government officials and wealthy elites are urging and cajoling their female citizens to have more babies. Among their various pro-natalist policies, governments are offering cash incentives, child allowances, paid parental leave, flexible work schedules, affordable childcare and financial assistance to families.

For example, China recently announced its attempt to create a “birth-friendly society”. The government has announced various incentives, including establishing a childbirth subsidy system and various tax cuts for parents. In addition, families with multiple children would be given privileges in home purchasing, housing loans and larger homes.

Despite decades of pro-natalist efforts, governments worldwide have not been able to raise their fertility rates back to the replacement level. Some demographers have concluded that once a country’s fertility rate falls well below the replacement level, i.e., under 1.8 births per woman, it’s very difficult to raise it by any significant amount despite government policies, programs and spending.

The major and often sole focus of concern of alarmists is the national economy, i.e., growth of the GNP, production, consumption, labor force size, etc. Rarely do those alarmists ring warning bells or express serious anxieties about vital non-economic matters, such as climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, gender equality and human rights.

Rather than attempting to return to the population growth rates and age structures of the recent past, government officials, their economic advisors and wealthy elites need to recognize and adjust to the changing 21st century demographic sky. By doing so, they will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the wide-ranging social, economic, environmental and climatic benefits and opportunities as well as the many challenges that lie ahead.

Again, to be clear, the world’s demographic sky is not collapsing. It is simply changing to low or negative rates of national population growth accompanied by older age structures. And also instead of blaming the emancipation of women, the alarmists should seriously consider the failure of men as an important factor contributing to the world’s changing demographic sky.

 

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

 

The UN General Assembly votes on the necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba. Credit: UN Photo/Evan Schneider

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Although classified as a compact tropical cyclone and considered one of the smallest in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Oscar has caused considerable damage in eastern Cuba since it made landfall on October 20, 2024. Cuban authorities have confirmed that the death toll has risen to seven, in additional to the damage in infrastructure. Communications and relief efforts were greatly impeded by a nationwide power grid blackout, which continues on in much of Cuba at the time of publication.

Hurricane Oscar has led to significant flooding in some of the nation’s most densely populated regions such as San Antonio. “The main concern is just very heavy rainfall that’s occurring over portions of eastern Cuba right now that are likely producing significant flooding and even potentially some mudslides in that area,” said Philippe Papin, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.

“The municipalities of San Antonio and Imías have been heavily battered by this event and there have even been levels of flooding that were not historically recorded in these two areas,” said Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.

Harsh winds, torrential rain, and flooding from Oscar has left many civilian infrastructures compromised or completely ruined. The Cuban government informed reporters that 2-meter swells hit the coasts of Baracoa, leading to walls and roofs sustaining damage. The Guantánamo province ranks among one of the hardest hit regions, with more than one-thousand homes damaged by Oscar.

In a statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter), the Cuban government confirmed that electricity access has been restored for approximately 88.12 percent of customers in Havana, the nation’s capital, early last week. According to the Energy Ministry of Cuba, other areas including Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba struggle to conduct their daily lives with only forty to sixty percent connectivity. Service is believed to be inaccessible to much of Cuba still.

Cuba’s health minister José Angel Portal Miranda informed reporters that the country’s health facilities relied on the use of electricity generators as healthcare personnel tended to the injured. In a televised address on October 17, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz indicated Cuba’s plan to conserve as much electricity as possible, so as to not leave the entire nation destitute. “We have been paralyzing economic activity to generate (power) to the population,” he said.

Thousands of Cubans rallied on the streets to protest the nationwide lack of power, beginning on October 21.

“We’ve gone four days without electricity. Our food is going bad. Our kids are suffering. We don’t have water”, said Marley Gonzalez, a Cuban resident who participated in the protest.

President Díaz-Canel urged protesters to voice their opinions with “discipline” and “civility” saying, “We are not going to accept nor allow anyone to act with vandalism and much less to alter the tranquility of our people. That’s a conviction, a principle of our revolution.”

Many Cubans have shifted blame to the U.S. government for its six-decade long embargo on fuel supplies to Cuba. “The most absurd thing is that they have applied a criminal blockade against us for more than 65 years. We have not had stable fuel supplies so that the system can operate at its full capacity and with all its stability,” President Díaz-Canel stated.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded to these comments, explaining that the “long-term mismanagement of its economic policy and resources has certainly increased the hardship of people in Cuba”.

The recent outages have caused concern among Cuban officials and humanitarian organizations, with many fearing that the recurring blackouts could signal the wake of a humanitarian crisis. The lack of power in Cuba has made relief efforts increasingly difficult for aid personnel. According to President Díaz-Canel, much of Cuba remains inaccessible due to the effects of Oscar. “Adding a hurricane hit on top of the existing power failure can make the hurricane impact far worse, further risking lives and resulting in challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the hurricane’s impacts,” said Jon Porter, a chief meteorologist for AccuWeather.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Faiza Ally, a pupil at Mtoni Primary School in Mara Region, plants a tree. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

By Kizito Makoye
MUSOMA, Tanzania, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

At Gabimori primary school, located at Nyamagaro ward in Tanzania’s northern Rorya district, a 15-year-old  Florence Sadiki kneels among polyethylene bags, carefully examining the seedlings she and her classmates  have nurtured from tiny sprouts “We’ve planted many trees to make our school look better and to help fight climate change,” she says.

Sadiki is part of an inspiring grassroots movement in the east African country where students, teachers, and community members team up to fight environmental degradation through reforestation. In Rorya district, nestled on the shores of Lake Victoria, rampant deforestation driven by charcoal production has left the land barren. But the efforts of school environmental clubs, supported by the Lake Community Program (LACOP), are working to repair the damage.

The reality in Rorya is grim. Erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts have changed swathes of once-fertile land into dry savannas, a trend that has only accelerated since the initiative began in 2022. Spearheaded by the global charity World Neighbors and the Lake Community Development Foundation (LACODEFO), this initiative empowers students to plant trees and learn the entire process of growing them.

Daudi Lyamuru speaks during a village meeting to mobilize the community to plant trees and support the climate mitigation project. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

 

Pupils at Mwenge primary school pose for a photo after tree planting exercise. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

“We’re teaching students to set up their own nurseries,” says Idrisa Lema, the project officer. “It’s not enough to hand out seedlings. They need to learn the whole process—choosing drought-resistant species, improving soil with organic manure, and using techniques like mulching.” This holistic approach  promotes sustainability and equips students with transferable skills that can help them for the rest of their lives.

In the past two years, the students have successfully planted 2,800 trees across five villages, a remarkable achievement that has already begun to bear fruit. Some once-dry water springs are starting to flow again. Yet challenges remain, particularly in Nyamagaro and neighboring Kyangasaga villages, where erratic rainfall and drought continue to hinder progress.

“Watering the trees is tough,” admits Alex Lwitiko, an environmental teacher at Rorya Girls’ School. “We’ve had to be strict with the students—otherwise, the trees wouldn’t survive.”

To adapt, students have switched to innovative solutions like bottle irrigation and even drilled water wells to support their young trees. “We focus on drought-resistant species and organic farming methods to give the trees the best chance,” Lwitiko says, emphasizing the program’s commitment to teaching sustainability.

Sadiki herself has learned to adapt. “I know how to graft trees and grow them in tough conditions now,” she says. “These trees are our future. They fight climate change, provide shade, and even improve soil fertility.”

A government official, Aloycia Mdeme, plants a tree to signify the launch of the school environmental club. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

 

Mtoni Primary School pupils plant trees; this project has become central to the region’s contribution to climate change mitigation. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

In Tanzania, the impact of climate change is becoming increasingly severe. The country aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 35 percent by 2030, a goal outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Despite its low carbon footprint—just 0.22 tons per capita compared to the global average of 7.58—Tanzania is reeling from climate-related disasters. Droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns disrupt agriculture, drying up water sources and threatening economic stability.

For the rural poor, especially those who rely on farming—the backbone of the economy, making up 28 percent of GDP—the stakes are higher. But in places like Nyagisya and Rorya Girls Secondary Schools, students have taken up the fight. Through tree planting, they have become unlikely climate crusaders, tackling environmental degradation while improving food security and boosting local livelihoods.

The act of planting trees offers more than shade and fruit. It symbolizes a deeper mission—restoring soil, preserving water, and, for these students, delivering a form of climate justice. The reforestation efforts are in step with Tanzania’s broader plans to fortify its agriculture and water systems against the advancing climate crisis.

As these student-led initiatives flourish, they mirror Tanzania’s urgent call for global support. With limited resources, the country is striving to fulfill its commitments yet it recognizes that the battle against climate change is a collective endeavor that requires unity on a global scale.

Despite the promising efforts in Tanzania, significant challenges remain. One of the main hurdles is the unpredictability of funding. Tree-planting initiatives and climate adaptation programs require sustained financial support, but resources are often limited, local analysts say.

Without consistent funding, scaling up projects and maintaining long-term impact becomes difficult.

Community members plant trees in Rorya district. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

While students have embraced environmental stewardship, not all local households are on board. In some areas, livestock continues to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of reforestation. Additionally, cultural and economic pressures, such as the reliance on charcoal for income and firewood for cooking, contribute to ongoing deforestation, making conservation efforts harder.

Erratic rainfall and worsening drought conditions present another barrier. Water scarcity makes it harder to nurture newly planted trees, despite innovative solutions. These conditions also strain local agriculture, which many families depend on, increasing the urgency of balancing conservation with survival needs.

While Tanzania has ambitious climate goals, the gap between policy and practical implementation remains wide, particularly in rural areas where the effects of climate change are felt most acutely. 

At Gabimori Primary School, students have embraced their role as environmental stewards. “They’ve seen how conservation affects their daily lives,” says teacher Witinga Mattambo. “They now understand the link between the trees and the food they eat.”

The impact is vivid for students like Sadiki. “I never realized trees were this important,” she says. “They bring rain and improve our environment.”

For Lema, this is only the beginning. By fostering leadership skills and engaging the broader community, the program is building a new generation of Tanzanians dedicated to environmental protection. “We’ve even seen parents get involved,” Lwitiko says. “They’re starting to plant trees in their own yards.”

Still, the program faces hurdles. Some households allow their livestock to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of the students. “It’s frustrating,” admits Lwitiko, “but we’re making progress, step by step.”

Lema has ambitious plans to expand the initiative.

“We’re training students to pass on their knowledge,” he says. “As they move on, they’ll teach younger students, and we’ll spread this effort to other schools.” But scaling the program will require more funding.

“We’re working on securing more resources and partnering with local governments to enforce tree-planting bylaws,” Lema explains. There are also plans to set up household tree nurseries, allowing families to earn extra income while contributing to conservation.

For Sadiki, the program’s impact is lasting.

“We have the duty to plant trees and protect our environment. It’s something we’ll carry with us for the rest of our lives.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

The act of planting trees offers more than shade and fruit. It symbolizes a deeper mission—restoring soil, preserving water, and, for these students, living in Tanzania’s northern Rorya district, delivering a form of climate justice. The reforestation efforts are in step with Tanzania's broader plans to fortify its agriculture and water systems against the advancing climate crisis.

Vivienne Rakotoarisoa harvests a reed known locally as Rambo (scientific name: Lepironia articulate) on her small plot of land in Mangatsiotra village in Madagascar’s coastal Vatovavy Fitovinany region, which she will later craft into baskets and mats to sell at a nearby market. Credit: UNEP
 
Climate change, the loss of nature, pollution and waste: The impacts of a triple planetary crisis are scarring Africa’s landscapes, depleting the continent’s oceans and freshwater sources, and raising urban air pollution to hazardous levels.

By Rose Mwebaza
NAIROBI, Kenya, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Some of the creeping impacts of this triple crisis are possibly the most debilitating: Africa is the most severely impacted region by desertification and land degradation, with approximately 45% of its land area affected. In the Horn of Africa and the Sahel alone, it imposes food shortages on more than 23 million people. Just last month, more than 700,000 people were affected by floods in Central and West Africa, and tens of millions in southern Africa are facing drought.

Desertification, drought, and land degradation don’t happen overnight, but pose a grave threat to long-term food sovereignty, gender equality, peace, and other development goals.

Africa is the world’s youngest continent, and its talents and resources are huge. The continent’s 54 countries have immense promise and power when they come together, as the budding African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement shows. And what may be true for trade is absolutely clear for addressing common environmental challenges.

As António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, has remarked, “Just as the injustice of climate change burns fiercely here in Africa, so do the opportunities.”

Rose Mwebaza

The continent is poised to demonstrate that through unity and coordinated action, it can lead the world towards a more just and sustainable future.

Back in November 2022, at the UN Climate Change Conference in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, working together, African governments helped broker a historic agreement on the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund to support developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

Subsequent gatherings of African environment ministers last year in Nairobi – for Africa Climate Week, the Africa Climate Summit and the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment – sustained this momentum.

Later in 2023, countries aligned in Dubai (COP28) to ensure that the Loss and Damage Fund would not be a mere promise but would be replenished with actual resources. When African states unite their efforts, they can achieve substantial results for the continent’s people.

The potential is evident on multiple other issues as well: an Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa brings together countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Namibia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy across the continent and driving green industrialization.

A partnership between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to establish battery and Electric vehicle Special Economic Zone is yet another example of how African nations are leveraging their natural resources for sustainable development, setting the continent as a key player in the emerging green economy.

The African Ministerial Conference on the Environment in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire last August was another opportunity for Africa to flex its diplomatic muscles. It was possibly the last chance for all African Environment Ministers to gather in the same room to align policies and actions ahead of three critical global conferences on biodiversity, climate, and desertification later this year.

In these discussions, the importance of finance cannot be overstated. Consider that 33 of Africa’s countries are part of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group, making them highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. Consider that the average debt ratio in sub-Saharan Africa has almost doubled since 2013 and peaking at over 60 per cent, making new financing expensive and forcing spending cuts.

At the same time, there is a strong need for greater investment in science-policy interfaces, to better anticipate droughts and other environmental disasters by applying the best available scientific tools and adaptation measures.

A good start is by strengthening cross-border coordination, raising the political profile of environmental issues, and mobilizing the necessary resources to combat these threats. Another crucial step is to anchor the understanding that reversing trends in deforestation, soil aridification and land degradation is a potent economic opportunity.

There is a need to center local communities in decision-making on environmental policies affecting them, and to ensure their rights are respected and they can fully benefit from economic opportunities emerging from their lands.

From Mauritania to Djibouti, a Great Green Wall is steadily pushing against the expansive desert. Greening initiatives across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, and Somalia, farming projects such as in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are revitalizing soils and boosting the livelihoods of communities. Research shows how every very dollar invested in restoration can create up to 30 dollars in economic benefits.

When it comes to shaping the global environmental agenda, there’s a leadership role for Africa to seize. Africans of all walks of life are ready to do their part and reap the benefits it brings. And we know when 54 governments jointly flex their muscle, the continent moves fast and forward.

Dr. Rose Mwebaza is the Regional Director and Representative, UNEP Africa Office.

Source: Africa Renewal: a United Nations digital magazine that covers Africa’s economic, social and political developments—and the challenges the continent faces, and the solutions to these by Africans themselves, including with the support of the United Nations and international community.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Residents pose behind the sprinkler that irrigates an alfalfa field thanks to the energy generated by a photovoltaic panel installed on Fanny Lastra's property in Mirador de Bío Bío, Chile. Credit: Courtesy of Fresia Lastra

By Orlando Milesi
SANTIAGO, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

The production of solar energy by means of panels installed on small farmers’ properties or on the roofs of community organisations is starting to directly benefit more and more farmers in Chile.

This energy enables technified irrigation systems, pumping water and lowering farmers’ bills by supporting their business. It also enables farmers’ cooperatives to share the fruits of their surpluses.

The huge solar and wind energy potential of this elongated country of 19.5 million people is the basis for a shift that is beginning to benefit not only large generators.

The potential capacity of solar and wind power generation is estimated at 2,400 gigawatts, which is 80 times more than the total capacity of the current Chilean energy matrix.

The mayor of Las Cabras, Juan Pablo Flores, first on the left, on the roof of the building of his Municipality along with employees who installed the photovoltaic panels that will allow energy savings of more than US$ 10,000 per year. Credit: Courtesy of Municipality of Las Cabras

Two farming families

Fanny Lastra, 55, was born in the municipality of Mulchén, 550 kilometres south of Santiago, located in the centre of the country in the Bío Bío region. She has lived in the rural sector of Mirador del Bío Bío in the town since she was 8.

“We won a grant of 12 million pesos (US$12,600) to install a photovoltaic system with sprinklers to make better use of the little water we have on our five-hectare farm and have good alfalfa crops to feed the animals,” she told IPS from her home town.“We used to irrigate all night, we didn't sleep, and now we can optimise irrigation¨: Fanny Lastra.

She refers to the resources provided to applicants who are selected on the basis of their background and the situation of their farms by two government bodies, mostly through grants: the National Irrigation Commission (CNR) and the Institute for Agricultural Development (Indap).

“Before we had to irrigate all night, we didn’t sleep, and now we can optimise irrigation. The panel gives us the energy to expel the water through sprinklers. In the future we plan to apply for another photovoltaic panel to draw water and fill a storage pool,” Lastra said.

The area has received abundant rainfall this year, but a larger pond would allow to store water for dry periods, which are increasingly recurrent.

“We have water shares (rights), but there are so many of us small farmers that we have to schedule. In my case, every nine days I have 28 hours of water. That’s why we applied for another project,” she said.

Lastra works with her children on the plot, which is mainly dedicated to livestock.

The conversion of agricultural land like hers into plots for second homes, which is rampant in many regions of Chile, has also reached Bío Bío and caused Lastra problems. For example, dogs abandoned by their owners have killed 50 of her lambs in recent times.

That is why she will gradually switch to raising larger livestock to continue with Granny’s Tradition, as she christened her production of fresh, mature cheeses and dulce de leche.

Marisol Pérez, 53, produces vegetables in greenhouses and outdoors on her half-hectare plot in the town of San Ramón, within the municipality of Quillón, 448 kilometres south of Santiago, also in the Bío Bío region.

In February 2023 she was affected by a huge fire. “Two greenhouses, a warehouse with motor cultivators, fumigators and all the machinery burnt down. And a poultry house with 200 birds that cost 4500 pesos (US$ 4.7) each. Thank God we saved part of the house and the photovoltaic panel,” She told IPS from his home town.

Pérez has been working the land with her sister and their husbands for 11 years.

“We started with irrigation and a solar panel.  After the fire we reapplied to the CNR. As the panel didn’t burn, they helped us with the greenhouse. The government gives us a certain amount and we have to put in at least 10%,” she explained.

The first subsidy was the equivalent of US$1,053 and the second, after the fire, was US$842. With both she was able to reinstall the drip system and rebuild the greenhouse, now made of metal.

“Having a solar panel allows us to save a lot. Before, we were paying almost 200,000 pesos (US$210) a month. With what we saved with the panel, we now pay 6,000 pesos (US$6.3)”, she explained with satisfaction.

In her opinion, “the solar panel is a very good thing.  If I don’t use water for the greenhouses, I use it for my house. We live off what we harvest and plant. That’s our life. And I am happy like that,” she said.

Ignacio Mena, Coopeumo network administrator, in front of the warehouse where photovoltaic panels were installed. Credit: Orlando Milesi / IPS

The cases of one cooperative and two municipalities

The proliferation of solar panels is also due to the drop in their price. Solarity, a Chilean solar power company, reported that prices are at historic lows.

In 2021 its value per kilowatt (kWp) was 292 dollars. It increased to 300 in 2022, then dropped to 202 and reached 128 dollars in 2024.

In 2021 the Cooperativa Intercomunal Peumo (Coopeumo) commissioned the first community photovoltaic plant in Chile. Today it has 54.2 kWp installed in two plants, with about 120 panels in total.

The energy generated is used in some of its own facilities and the surplus is injected into the Compañía General de Electricidad (CGE), a private distributor, which pays its contribution every month.

This amount contributes to improving support for its 350 members, all farmers in the area, including technical assistance, the sale of agricultural inputs, grain marketing and tax consultancy.

Coopeumo’s goals also include reducing carbon dioxide (C02) emissions into the atmosphere and benefiting its members.

It also benefits the municipalities of Pichidegua and Las Cabras, located 167 and 152 kilometres south of Santiago, as well as school, health and neighbourhood establishments.

“The energy savings in a typical month, like August 2024, was 492,266 pesos (US$518),” said Ignacio Mena, 37, and a computer engineer who works as a network administrator for Coopeumo, based in the municipality of Peumo, in the O’Higgins region, which borders the Santiago Metropolitan Region to the south.

Interviewed by IPS at his office in Pichidegua, he said the construction of the first plant cost the equivalent of US$42,105, contributed equally by Coopeumo and the private foundation  Agencia de Sostenibilidad Energética.

Constanza López, 35, a risk prevention engineer and head of the environmental unit of the Las Cabras municipality, appreciates the contribution of the panels installed on the roof of the municipal building. They have an output of 54 kilowatts and have been in operation since 2023.

“We awarded them through the Energy Sustainability Agency.  They funded 30 percent and we funded the rest,” she told IPS at the municipal offices. “This year is the first that the programme is fully operational and we should reach maximum production,” she said.

In the case of the municipality of Las Cabras, the estimated annual savings is about US$10,605.

An expert explains to a group of small farmers at Mirador de Bío Bío the benefits and operation of solar panels. Credit: Courtesy of Fresia Lastra

Panels and family farming, a virtuous cycle

There is a virtuous cycle between the use of panels and savings for small farmers. The Ministry of Energy estimates this saving at around 15% for small farms.

“The use of solar technology for self-consumption is a viable alternative for users in the agricultural sector. More and more systems are being installed, which make it possible to lower customers‘ electricity bills,” the ministry said in a written response.

Since 2015, successive governments have promoted the use of renewable energy, particularly photovoltaic systems for self-consumption, within the agricultural sector.

“There has been a steady growth in the number of projects using renewable energy for self-consumption. In total, 1,741 irrigation projects have been carried out with a capacity of 13,852 kW and a total investment of 59,951 million pesos (US$63.1 million),” the ministry said.

The CNR told IPS that so far in 2024 it has subsidised more than 1,000 projects, submitted by farmers across Chile.

“This is an investment close to 78 billion pesos (US$82.1 million), taking into account subsidies close to 62 billion pesos (US$65.2) plus the contribution of irrigators,” it said.

Of these projects, at least 270 incorporate non-conventional renewable energies, “such as photovoltaic systems associated with irrigation works”, it added.

According to the National Electricity Coordinator, the autonomous technical body that coordinates the entire Chilean electricity system, between September 2023 and August 2024, combined wind and solar generation in Chile amounted to 28,489 gigawatt hours.

In the first quarter of 2024, non-conventional renewable energies, such as solar and wind among others, accounted for 41% of electricity generation in Chile, according to figures from the same technical body.

Sustainable forest management plans are strengthening production systems and lucrative value chains, such as cacao and açaí. Credit: FAO

By Susana Muhamad and Kaveh Zahedi
CALI, Colombia, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

As countries are meeting in Cali, Colombia, for the 2024 UN Biodiversity Conference (CBD COP 16), the fate of biodiversity hangs in the balance, and with it, the sustainability of our food systems.

Agriculture and food systems are often associated with biodiversity loss. Land-use change, climate change, pollution, overexploitation of wild species, and the spread of invasive species – the main drivers of biodiversity loss – can all be linked to unsustainable agricultural practices.

Sustainable agriculture can enhance biodiversity, improve soil fertility and water availability, support pollination and pest control, while also promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation and healthy diets for all

But there is another side to the coin. Agriculture is central to the sustainable use of biodiversity, an important goal and, possibly, the biggest breakthrough of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), in its roadmap to a world living in harmony with nature.

Sustainable agriculture can enhance biodiversity, improve soil fertility and water availability, support pollination and pest control, while also promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation and healthy diets for all.

Evidence shows that the adoption of agroforestry, for example, cultivating trees, shrubs, and crops together on the same plots, can achieve up to 80% of the biodiversity levels of natural forests, reduce 50% of soil erosion, and boost healthy diets for 1.3 billion people living on degraded land.

Using an ecosystem approach to fisheries could help restore marine fish populations, increasing fisheries production by a staggering 16.5 million tonnes.

In Colombia, the Pacífico Biocultural project, financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), harnesses several agrifood systems solutions across the Pacific region of the country, helping biodiversity and communities, including Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendents and small-scale producers, to flourish.

Sustainable forest management plans are strengthening production systems and lucrative value chains, such as cacao and açaí.

The project is working to restore mangroves, which defend the region against coastal erosion and extreme weather events. This also improves the harvest of piangua, a native mollusk valuable for both nutrition and livelihoods.

The project has provided new and existing protected areas with upgraded equipment and management plans. Ecotourism and bird watching corridors in these areas are creating new green jobs.

Among the main achievements of the Pacífico Biocultural project, the following stand out:

• Five ethnic territory planning instruments formulated or updated, covering 195,107.35 hectares;
• Increased management effectiveness for 586.035 hectares in eight protected areas;
• 27 green business initiatives, seven added value units (UVAs), and six community-based nature tourism initiatives supported; and
• Structured and implemented Participatory Ecological Restoration Plans in mangrove and tropical rainforest areas on 1,000 hectares.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) also leads the implementation of two other projects in the country, in coordination with the Ministry of Environment of Colombia.

The ‘Paisajes Sostenibles – Herencia Colombia (HeCo)’ project, financed by the EU, uses an integrated landscape approach, to achieve sustainability in agrifood systems in Colombia´s two strategic biodiversity regions – the Caribbean and Andes.

In the ecological corridor between the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and the Ramsar site Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta of the Caribbean region, the project works on the sustainability of coffee plantations, beekeeping, and tourism production chains in coastal areas.

In Ciénaga, it works on the artisanal fishing chain, mangrove restoration, tourism, and circular economy initiatives to address plastic pollution. In the Cordillera Central moorland ecosystem, the project aims to improve the sustainability of livestock management in the high mountains, hand in hand with the traditional inhabitants.

With an emphasis on the Amazon Biome, the Green Climate Fund (GCF)-funded ‘GCF-Visión Amazonía’ project, in collaboration with Colombia’s Ministry of Environment and the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), helps implement the REDD+ National Strategy, ‘Bosques Territorios de Vida,’ and the Deforestation Containment Plan. It specifically aims to shift from deforestation towards sustainable forestry development.

Colombia is clearly at the forefront of promoting the sustainability of agrifood systems. But while agrifood systems are receiving more attention in biodiversity policies, especially in National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), most countries find it difficult to carry out these pledges.

The ability to incorporate biodiversity into policies and practices is frequently lacking in the agrifood sector. The amount of money that is available is insufficient to bring about change.

Today, we must consider how to scale up actions and investment to transform agrifood systems. Countries are updating their NBSAPs, to begin implementing the GBF.

Including biodiversity-friendly agrifood solutions and taking farmers, fisherfolk, and livestock herders and producers into account is an essential first step. Having a framework of policies which enable sustainable agrifood systems will smooth the path to creating peace with nature.

To help countries with this effort, FAO, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Secretariat, governments, and partners are launching the Agri-NBSAPs Support Initiative during the high-level segment of COP 16.

It proposes a work plan that includes tasks to help create an environment that is conducive to biodiversity, collect the best data for implementing and measuring biodiversity-friendly policies, obtain funding, and increase understanding.

The transition to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive agrifood systems will be accelerated by helping nations create and implement their NBSAPs and harmonize them with agrifood policies and interventions.

The GBF is an ambitious plan, a challenging plan. But in the long term, it will pay off for us and future generations. Biodiversity is the foundation of food security and nutrition, and an irreplaceable asset in our battle against climate change and its effects. Yet it continues to decline faster than at any time in human history.

Nature has enormous recuperative powers. Let’s give her all the help and opportunities we can to get back on her feet by restoring and sustainably using biodiversity, especially in the pursuit of agriculture. In the future, they will say this was the decade of transformation. We are the generation with the foresight to take steps to ensure the future.

 

Excerpt:

Susana Muhamad is Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development of Colombia and President of the 2024 UN Biodiversity Conference, and Kaveh Zahedi is Director of FAO Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment

More than 700 authors representing 90 different nationalities written the AR6 for IPCC | Credit: Margaret López/IPS

By Margaret López
CARACAS, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

Climate finance will be at the epicenter of the discussion at the UN Climate Change Conference 2024 (COP29). The focus will be on strengthening the fund and defining the conditions under which the countries of the Global South will be able to access this money. However, little is said about the scientific research that is required to gather the evidence and data to prove the loss and damage caused by the impact of climate change in developing countries.

One of the points under discussion is the need for countries of the Global South to provide comprehensive, scientifically backed reports on how they are being directly affected by the impacts of climate change. This requirement guarantees that money will flow to the most affected countries, but it ignores the inequality present in scientific research networks in the Global South.

Floods and the effects of storms or hurricanes are not the only topics we are discussing.  For example, will Latin American countries, such as Brazil or Argentina, be ready to provide data and evidence of how global warming precipitated an increase in dengue cases among their citizens in 2024?

Dengue cases in Latin America tripled compared to the same period in 2023. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) compiled reports of more than 12 million cases of dengue fever in the region up to middle October and, undoubtedly, this additional health burden is part of the less talked about impacts of climate change.

Research centers in Brazil or Argentina, two of the countries with the best scientific networks in the region, can surely deliver the studies to support a financial request to cover these health-related damages. But the scenario is very different if we look at the scientific networks of other Latin American countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay, or my native Venezuela.

More than 3,000 Venezuelan scientists have left the country for lack of support and financial problems in its laboratories since 2009, according to the follow-up done by researcher Jaime Requena, a member of the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Acfiman, its acronym in Spanish). This is equivalent to half of the Venezuelan scientific force, considering that Venezuela had 6,831 active researchers in the Researcher Promotion Program (PPI) in 2009.

Only 11 Venezuelan scientists participated as authors in all the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In AR6, the most recent IPCC report, only three authors were Venezuelan.

Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay were also represented by three researchers in AR6, while other countries such as Paraguay and Bolivia did not even manage to add a scientist to the group of more than 700 authors.

Climatologist Paola Andrea Arias was part of the Colombian representation. She is one of those promoting that the IPCC broaden the diversity of authors in the next report on the effects of climate change in the world.

“We all do science with different perspectives; we will follow the same methods and the same standards, but we have different perspectives. We ask different questions and have different priorities. We see in science the possibility of answering or solving different problems and, obviously, that will be very focused on your reality, the world in which you live, the country or city where you are,” said Arias when I asked her about her participation in AR6.

The low participation of Latin American scientists in global research on climate change, such as that of the IPCC, also means less space and dissemination for those studies that try to track the impacts of climate change in the region. This pattern is also repeated in Africa and Asia.

Promoting more research on the damages and impacts of climate change in the Global South, in the end, is not something that can be separated from climate finance. A clear example is that the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) has just created a scientific committee for its biodiversity conservation fund, as announced during COP16 on biodiversity in Cali, Colombia.

CAF explained that this new biodiversity committee will have “a key role” with recommendations based on scientific evidence to invest in environmental projects. The first tasks of this scientific committee will be focused on providing recommendations for conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of ecosystems in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Chocó, a program that will have access to 300 million dollars.

The creation of a scientific committee to deliver climate finance can be a first step, as shown by CAF’s experience in biodiversity. To move forward on this path, however, it is necessary to promote more funding for Latin American, African, and Asian scientists to do more local research on the impacts of climate change. It’s the only way to gather the scientific evidence to support the contention that the climate crisis represents an obstacle to development in those countries with the largest populations and the greatest number of disadvantages.

This opinion piece is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.
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Excerpt:

Climate finance will come under intense scrutiny during COP29, and its distribution aligned with scientific analysis of the impacts of climate change, but the methodology ignores the inequality in research networks of the Global South.

Woman farmer with her chicken, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Credit: ILRI/Apollo Habtamu

By Christian Tiambo
CALI, Colombia, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

As the UN’s COP16 biodiversity conference continues, the temptation is to focus on the wild flora and fauna under threat.

But there is another, less obvious yet just as critical biodiversity crisis unfolding around the world that also deserves attention.

A quarter of livestock breeds – from chickens, ducks and geese to horses, camels and cattle – are classified at risk of extinction. Even more concerning is the fact that a lack of data means the status of more than 50 per cent of breeds remains unknown. More than 200 livestock breeds have gone extinct since 2000, some without having ever been recorded.

Just 40 out of thousands of species of mammals and birds have been domesticated for food and agriculture yet these domesticated food-producing animals contribute an average of 40 per cent of the world’s agricultural gross domestic product. Eight of these species provide more than 95 per cent of the human food supply from livestock.

The erosion of local and locally adapted livestock diversity poses an especially serious threat to developing countries, where livestock-keeping generates as much as 80 per cent of agricultural GDP, providing much-needed food, fibre, fuel and draught power.

A shrinking pool of commercially improved livestock provides increasingly limited potential for animals to support food security, economic growth, climate adaptation and even ecosystem services that protect biodiversity more broadly. Maintaining agricultural biodiversity is essential for diverse, healthy diets and resilient, diversified forms of rural livelihoods.

It is therefore vital that negotiators at COP16 include livestock as well as wildlife in their National Biodiversity Strategies and Adaptation Plans (NBSAPs), including agreements to compensate countries for indigenous livestock DNA sequences.

As a minimum, countries should include specific targets for protecting livestock breeds within their NBSAPs to help enshrine the preservation of genetic diversity.

Setting actionable targets is a fundamental step towards maintaining a rich variety of livestock breeds, which is essential for breeding more resilient, heat tolerant and healthy animals.

The ability to improve livestock and make use of the locally adapted characteristics of indigenous breeds is becoming increasingly valuable as the impacts of climate change threaten conventional and exotic breeds. The diversity of local, locally adapted and non-conventional livestock constitute an essential resource that will ensure animal production is able to adapt to climate change, respond to new market opportunities and deal with new disease threats.

For example, the hardy Red Maasai sheep that is indigenous to East Africa and can cope with arid and hot conditions, was on the brink of extinction after many farmers replaced their flocks with South Africa’s Dorper breed to produce more meat. But unlike the Red Maasai, Dorper sheep are less able to thrive in drought conditions. Thankfully, the preservation of the Red Maasai by researchers at the International Livestock Research Institute’s (ILRI) Kapiti Research Station has supported their reintroduction, as well as crossbreeding programs to harness the beneficial traits of both.

Plans to compensate countries for recording such genetic resources, known as digital sequence information, and the associated traditional knowledge, must include livestock so that countries across Africa and the Global South can benefit and use this funding to re-invest in livestock conservation.

Countries should also include protections for the conservation of forages that feed livestock and wild herbivores in their NBSAPs. This is equally important for identifying resilient and low-emissions crops that can meet the nutritional needs of livestock.

Koronivia grass, for example, is native to Africa and is among the collection of germplasm stored at the Future Seeds genebank in Colombia. Breeders produced an improved variety of the grass that was shown to increase levels of soil carbon on tropical savannas by 15 per cent while also reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from grazing cattle by a factor of 10.

Leveraging the full range of the world’s biodiversity can unlock improved breeds and varieties of forages to support sustainable livestock production and maximise its benefits for human development.

Alongside such protections for genetic resources and agricultural biodiversity, governments should also include sustainable livestock production within their NBSAPs to support rangeland restoration and achieve their biodiversity goals.

Livestock systems that integrate sustainable practices like managed grazing can enhance soil health, increase carbon sequestration, and promote ecosystem diversity while generating emissions that are comparable to wild herbivores.

For example, livestock manure already provides 14 per cent of the nitrogen used for crop production globally and a quarter of that used for crop production on mixed crop-and-livestock farms. These closed nutrient cycles replenish soils with nitrogen while also enhancing soil structure and organic matter, improving the nutrient- and water-holding capacities of soils and reducing soil erosion.

The natural world thrives when the balance of biodiversity is maintained, and this includes local and non-conventional livestock as well as wild animals.

For the countries where the right livestock breeds can determine hunger or health, poverty or prosperity, it is essential that the biodiversity talks include cattle, pigs and chickens alongside pandas, rhinos and cheetahs.

To fully take advantage of the diversity of livestock, the global community must conserve genetic resources and put them to use to enable communities to cope with climate change, meet changing market demands, resist diseases, and enhance global food security.

Dr. Christian Tiambo, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

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Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, addresses the UN General Assembly’s 75th session September 2020. Credit: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

By Norman Solomon
SAN FRANCISCO, USA, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

The conclusion that Donald Trump is a fascist has gone mainstream, gaining wide publicity and affirmation in recent weeks. Such understanding is a problem for Trump and his boosters.

At the same time, potentially pivotal in this close election, a small proportion of people who consider themselves to be progressive still assert that any differences between Trump and Kamala Harris are not significant enough to vote for Harris in swing states. Opposition to fascism has long been a guiding light in movements against racism and for social justice.

Speaking to a conference of the African National Congress in 1951, Nelson Mandela warned that “South African capitalism has developed [into] monopolism and is now reaching the final stage of monopoly capitalism gone mad, namely, fascism.”

Before Fred Hampton was murdered by local police officers colluding with the FBI in 1969, the visionary young Illinois Black Panther Party leader said: “Nothing is more important than stopping fascism, because fascism will stop us all.”

But now, for some who lay claim to being on the left, stopping fascism is not a priority. Disconnected from the magnitude of this fateful moment, the danger of a fascist president leading a fanatical movement becomes an abstraction.

One cogent critic of capitalism ended a column in mid-October this way: “Pick your poison. Destruction by corporate power or destruction by oligarchy. The end result is the same. That is what the two ruling parties offer in November. Nothing else.”

The difference between a woman’s right to an abortion vs. abortion being illegal is nothing?

“The end result is the same” — so it shouldn’t matter to us whether Trump becomes president after campaigning with a continuous barrage against immigrants, calling them “vermin,” “stone-cold killers,” and “animals,” while warning against the “bad genes” of immigrants who aren’t white, and raising bigoted alarms about immigration of “blood thirty criminals” who “prey upon innocent American citizens” and will “cut your throat”?

If “the end result is the same,” a mish-mash of ideology and fatalism can ignore the foreseeable results of a Republican Party gaining control of the federal government with a 2024 platform that pledges to “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.” Or getting a second Trump term after the first one allowed him to put three right-wing extremists on the Supreme Court.

Will the end result be the same if Trump fulfills his apparent threat to deploy the U.S. military against his political opponents, whom he describes as “radical left lunatics” and “the enemy from within”?

Capacities to protect civil liberties matter. So do savage Republican cuts in programs for minimal health care, nutrition and other vital aspects of a frayed social safety net. But those cuts are less likely to matter to the polemicists who will not experience the institutionalized cruelties firsthand.

Rather than being for personal absolution, voting is a tool in the political toolbox — if the goal is to avert the worst and improve the chances for constructing a future worthy of humanity.

Trump has pledged to be even more directly complicit in Israel’s mass murder of Palestinian people in Gaza than President Biden has been. No wonder, as the Washington Post reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has shown a clear preference for Trump in this election.” During a call this month, Trump told Netanyahu: “Do what you have to do.”

Palestinians, Muslim leaders and other activists in the swing state of Arizona issued an open letter days ago that makes a case for defeating Trump. “We know that many in our communities are resistant to vote for Kamala Harris because of the Biden administration’s complicity in the genocide,” the letter says. “We understand this sentiment.”

“Many of us have felt that way ourselves, even until very recently. Some of us have lost many family members in Gaza and Lebanon. We respect those who feel they simply can’t vote for a member of the administration that sent the bombs that may have killed their loved ones.”

The letter goes on:

As we consider the full situation carefully, however, we conclude that voting for Kamala Harris is the best option for the Palestinian cause and all of our communities. We know that some will strongly disagree. We only ask that you consider our case with an open mind and heart, respecting that we are doing what we believe is right in an awful situation where only flawed choices are available.

In our view, it is crystal clear that allowing the fascist Donald Trump to become President again would be the worst possible outcome for the Palestinian people. A Trump win would be an extreme danger to Muslims in our country, all immigrants, and the American pro-Palestine movement. It would be an existential threat to our democracy and our whole planet.

Exercising conscience in the most humane sense isn’t about feeling personal virtue. It’s about concern for impacts on the well-being of other people. It’s about collective solidarity.

The consequences of declining to help stop fascism are not confined to the individual voter. In the process, vast numbers of people can pay the price for individuals’ self-focused concept of conscience.

Last week, the insightful article “7 Strategic Axioms for the Anxious Progressive Voter” offered a forward-looking way to put this presidential election in a future context: “Vote for the candidate you want to organize against!”

Do we want to be organizing against a fascistic militaristic President Trump, with no realistic hope of changing policies . . . or against a neoliberal militaristic President Harris, with the possibility of changing policies?

For progressives, the answer should be clear.

Norman Solomon is the national director of RootsAction.org and executive director of the Institute for Public Accuracy. His latest book, War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine, was published in paperback this fall with a new afterword about the Gaza war.

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Seedlings from the Seeds of Resilience initiative amid destruction in north Gaza. Credit: Bisan Okasha

By Dawn Clancy
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

It was two weeks before October 7—when Hamas attacked Israel—that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood behind the rostrum in the United Nations General Assembly hall clutching a crude map of what he called the “new Middle East,” a visual that erased the land of Palestine.

A year later, Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza has accelerated, including the destruction of Palestine’s agricultural lands, tipping Netanyahu’s vision of a Middle East without Palestine closer to reality.

According to a recent report by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), “as of September 1st, 2024, 67.6 percent of Gaza’s cropland has been damaged,” and much of its agricultural infrastructure, including “greenhouses, agricultural wells and solar panels,” has been destroyed.

“There is no agricultural sector anymore,” said Hani Al Ramlawi, director of operations for the Palestinian Agricultural Development Association (PARC). Ramlawi is from Gaza City but relocated to Egypt six months after the conflict began.

Ramwali told IPS that over the past year, no agricultural supplies have made it into the Strip. Ongoing water and electricity shortages have made fuel, used to power generators and solar panels, too expensive and caused the cost of produce in local markets to soar. In the north of Gaza, Ramlawi said one kilo of potatoes, roughly two pounds, costs $80, a kilo of tomatoes around $90 and one kilo of garlic is $200, and the prices fluctuate daily. Less than 10 percent of farmers have access to their land, and the soil is “diseased” due to ongoing military activities.

Everyone in Gaza is “food insecure,” Ramlawi said. Additionally, the International Labor Organization (ILO), a UN agency, estimates that after a year of war, Gaza’s unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 80 percent.

Seedlings waiting to be distributed to home gardens in displacement camps in north Gaza. Credit: Bisan Okasha

A new Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report has found that between Sept. and Oct. 2024, 1.84 million or 90 percent of people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity. “The risk of famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip,” the report added. “Given the recent surge in hostilities, there are growing concerns that this worst-case scenario may materialize.”

Starvation in Gaza, in the context of conflict, is not unique—a group of UN experts published a statement on Oct. 17 warning that “97 percent of Sudan’s IDPs” are facing severe levels of hunger due to “starvation tactics” implemented by the warring parties—but what is different about Gaza, said Michael Fakhri, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food, is the “speed” and the “intensity” at which starvation has spread across the Strip.

“This is the fastest instance of starvation we’ve ever seen in modern history,” said Fakhri. “How is Israel able to starve 2.3 million people so quickly and so completely? It’s almost like they pushed a button or flipped a switch.”

What is happening in Gaza, according to Fakhri, is not entirely a humanitarian crisis brought on by prolonged armed conflict but rather a byproduct of decades of illegal land grabs, forced displacement, punitive economic policies and the physical destruction of Palestinian croplands—whether by bulldozers or ever-widening military buffer zones—by the Israeli government. Practices that began in the late nineteenth century, when the first wave of European Jews emigrated to Palestine, long before the State of Israel was established in 1948.

“There’s a consistent through line” that predates the horrors of October 7, said Fakhri. “What is happening today is not new,” he added, or limited to the Gaza Strip.

Relatedly, in response to Fakhri’s latest report examining food and starvation in Palestine, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon sent a letter of complaint to Secretary-General António Guterres on October 17, calling on him to retract Fakhri’s “disgraceful” and antisemitic report.

Meanwhile in the West Bank, according to Ubai Al-Aboudi, executive director of the Bisan Center for Research and Development—a Palestinian think tank based in Ramallah—the destruction of crop lands and the targeting of farmers, primarily by Israeli settlers, is “systematic.”

“Now is olive season,” Al-Aboudi told IPS. “And we have this tradition; almost all Palestinian families in the West Bank have their olive trees that they go to in the olive picking season.” But with increased settler attacks, villagers now coordinate, Al-Aboudi said, and harvest collectively to protect their lands, their farmers and one another.

According to estimates from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of Oct. 7, 2023, over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, close to 100,000 injured and 1.9 million have been displaced. (OCHA relies on Gaza’s Ministry of Health for casualty figures.) However, a recent report from The Lancet, a weekly medical journal, suggests that the number of dead in Gaza is likely much higher.

While an official tally of the number of farmers killed in the Strip is not available, members of the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC), a Palestinian NGO in Gaza, estimate that since Oct. 7, no fewer than 500 farmers out of roughly 30,000 have been killed.

“You know, the farmers and their families are experiencing the same as what we are witnessing for all the population,” said Mahmoud Alsaqqa in a phone interview with IPS. Alsaqqa is Oxfam’s food security and livelihood lead. He is based in Deir Al-Balah.

But, for the remaining farmers, accessing their lands, most of which are located on the eastern edge of the Strip next to the Israeli border, means risking death or sustaining life-altering injuries. “They become an easy target for the military,” said Alsaqqa. And when farmers are killed, their decade’s worth of agricultural knowledge and know-how dies with them.

“There is significant concern about the challenge of rebuilding the knowledge base in Gaza,” UAWC told IPS. “Many universities have been destroyed, and this creates a major fear regarding the re-establishment of academic and agricultural expertise in the region.”

Still, despite ongoing hostilities and sharp decreases in the availability of humanitarian aid, since Oct. 7, Alsaqqa with Oxfam said that more Palestinians are relying on urban or home gardening to feed their families and others in need.

Before the war, Bisan Okasha’s home garden in the Jabalia camp in northern Gaza was bursting with olive, palm and banana trees, citrus fruits, grapes and mint and basil seedlings. However, after Oct. 7, when her home and garden were destroyed and the threat of famine loomed large, Okasha’s father, determined to rebuild, cleared their land of debris and planted 70 eggplant seedlings on a mound of soil that covered the rubbled chunks of their home.

The effort was “successful,” said Okasha in a series of texts with IPS. The experience left her feeling inspired, and soon after, Okasha, despite being displaced three times, created Seeds of Resilience, a collaborative, community-driven initiative designed to revive and establish home gardens in the north by providing and planting seedlings and seeds for free. So far, Okasha and her team—all volunteers—have planted eggplant, cauliflower, chili, and peppers in multiple home gardens.

“My dad’s personal effort to change the reality we were living in is what gave me the belief that I can create change in my entire community and take a real, practical step to prepare the people in Northern Gaza for any future crisis that may threaten their lives,” said Okasha.

“Wars and disasters in this world show no mercy to souls,” she added.

According to the FAO report, out of the five governorates in Gaza, North Gaza, where the Jabalia camp is located, has the highest proportion of damaged cropland at 78 percent. Khan Younis has the largest amount of damaged agricultural infrastructure—animal shelters, home barns, agricultural houses, and cattle farms—while the Gaza governorate has the largest number of damaged wells, reducing access to water. Relatedly, OCHA estimates that over 70,000 housing units have been destroyed across Gaza.

The Israeli mission to the UN, based in New York, declined to comment on the FAO report, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) did not respond.

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By Mawdudur Rahman and Habib Siddiqui
BOSTON / PHILADELPHIA, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

The students and the common people of Bangladesh dared to do something in 36 days of July-August that was considered simply impossible by most people just days before August 5, 2024. They said ‘enough is enough’ to an old order that outraged their humanity, robbed their dignity and the rulers imagined that their citadel of power was simply impenetrable. The revolutionists refused to bow down to the murderous regime that knew no bounds to its cruelty and plundering. They were ready to sacrifice their lives for the freedom of the besieged nation.

Mawdudur Rahman

This revolution is unique in so many ways. It is a revolution in the digital age that is rooted in meta-modernist philosophy. The old political leadership with its moribund appeal and bankrupt philosophy proved irrelevant in this agenda. As Professor Yunus, the Chief Advisor to the Interim Government, has rightly said, ‘Now is the era of a new generation’.

Meta-modernism is the cultural philosophy of the digital age, coined by Mas’ud Zavarzadeh in 1975. meta-modernism is the Age of the Internet or more balanced worldview. As one analyst puts it, we went from modernism — “Make it new!” Let’s shape History! – to postmodernism — everything sucks! Nothing really matters! — to meta-modernism – maybe things are not this black-and-white, maybe there’s a middle ground.

Meta-modernist thinkers perceive the present world around them as a threat to their very existence. They work with pragmatic idealism and have no grand narrative thinking or any orthodox certainties. In other words, they try to strike a balance between all of this. They recognize that they have to face the problems of the society.

Habib Siddiqui

Arguably, all the activities of Bangladeshi revolutionists including their wall posters, followed a framework of Meta-Modernism. It is understood that the new Bangladesh is defined in a new ideology. Student revolutionaries have said that our ideology is reflected through the language we use. The basis of the new ideology is language. It is a revolution of change from the cultural context of fascist imperialist language to the native (spoken) language of the people. In other words, new ideals will be reflected through the language of the people.

It would be wrong to think that this people’s revolution was all about a change of government. Its victory is unlike 1947 and 1971. In both those cases, there was a change of government without any structural change. As a result, the incoming government followed imperialist practices of exploitation left behind by the British. Subsequent governments turned the country into a failed democracy, in order to control, exploit and subjugate its citizens. The police were used as an enabling force to subjugate the citizens, while the legislature and judiciary worked as the rubber stamps to sustain the total control of the government. This evil social system has corrupted the mindset and behavior of our people. An immoral society was formed with no fear of accountability, whose driving force was unfathomed greed and mantra — the ‘rule and exploitation by repression’. Government employees saw themselves as bosses and not as public servants. They thrived upon corruption at all levels.

There are now two competing ideologies in front of Bangladesh – one of decaying fascism that wants to resurface under old leadership and the other is the young leadership of equality and morality. As the revolution demonstrated, the ‘New Bangladesh’ does not approve fascist-supporting corrupt institutions. It desires a corruption-free new society. It is for paradigm shift – a transformational change.

The Chief Advisor and Student Coordinators have clearly highlighted the ideals of New Bangladesh through their speeches and interviews. Dr. Yunus said, ‘We are all one nation’. This is a clarion call to establish a holistic change in society. Such a radical change in society requires a change in values. A change in values lies in the change in public ideology.

The new Bangladesh is not the old Bangladesh with a new cover. It demands a change in the fundamental values of human behavior, actions, and beliefs. These include structural changes, personal changes, expectations.

To understand the ideology of this change, one has to listen carefully to the speech of Mahfuz Alam, the ‘thinker’ of the movement. Five points can be deduced from his recent talks: (1) unity, (2) ‘language is their inspiration’, (3) group leadership, (4) they are children of time, and that (5) they are not a slave to traditional thinking. His views reflect today’s meta-modernism.

For any transformational change to succeed, the change agents must own it, direct it, and ultimately excel in it. We think that this revolution of holistic change can benefit from the revolutionary approaches adopted in China and Cuba that were also led by youths. They owned the revolution and did not allow it to be hijacked by the reactionaries. We see some of these characteristics in the minds and mission of the Bangladeshi revolutionaries.

The bottom line is, bringing any changes in old culture habits was never an easy task. This revolution has presented an opportunity to change the destiny of Bangladesh as never before.

The meta-modernist youths of Bangladesh have come to lead and move forward; they will not go back to the old ways. Their message is clear: if you do not join us, the country will not wait for you. If older generations do not adopt the new view of change, we fear further instability and chaos to come, whose outcome cannot be pleasant.

Dr. Mawdudur Rahman, Professor Emeritus, Suffolk University, Boston, USA. He can be contacted at: mrahman@suffolk.edu.

Dr. Habib Siddiqui is a peace and human rights activists. His latest book – ‘Bangladesh: a polarized and divided nation?’ is available in the Amazon.com. Both are members of the steering committee of Esho Desh Gori – Let’s Build Bangladesh.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Transit Site in Roriak, Unity State, South Sudan. People receive support after fleeing conflict in Sudan. Credit: UNICEF/South Sudan

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

Critical levels of nationwide hunger in Sudan has only increased to critical levels since the start of the Sudanese civil war in April 2023. Escalated hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have led to limited mobility and repeated blockages of humanitarian aid. This, coupled with the volatile floods and droughts, have decimated crop fields which has only exacerbated famine levels greatly. All of these factors have left nearly 25 million people in Sudan in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024.

“The situation in Sudan can now only be described as a humanitarian disaster of the highest level. All sides are committing atrocities, as recently confirmed by the United Nations fact-finding mission. The war, now in its second year, has pushed parts of North Darfur into famine conditions, with the situation expected to deteriorate,” said the European Union (EU) Commissioner for Crisis Management, H.E. Mr. Janez Lenarčič.

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) estimates that since the wake of the conflict, there have been over 5,170 violent conflicts in the nation, culminating in the deaths of 14,790 civilians. Early figures from the World Food Programme (WFP) show that there has been little improvement in food security since relief efforts began. Heavy torrential rains and floods have led to the destruction of farmland. Continued fighting between the RSF and the SAF have made it difficult for farmers to cultivate and harvest crops. Approximately 25.6 million people are facing acute food insecurity in Sudan. 13 areas of the country are at risk of experiencing severe famine in the coming months.

The United Nations (UN) reports that sustained violence has led to over 10.7 million people being internally displaced and an additional 2.3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries. Humanitarian organizations are concerned about the scale of Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries, fearing that this could overwhelm economies in northeast Africa.

“This brutal war has uprooted millions of people, forcing them to leave their homes, schools and jobs behind in search of safety. Countries neighbouring Sudan are generously hosting a rising number of refugees, but cannot shoulder that responsibility alone. The stability of the whole region hangs in the balance,” said UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report on October 25 predicting that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, and Ethiopia could be the most negatively impacted from adopting Sudanese refugees. “A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges. And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth,” said Catherine Pattillo, IMF’s deputy director.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to address the Security Council next week on initiatives to take to prevent further suffering in Sudan and its neighbouring countries. The African Union has expressed concern that the escalating situation in Sudan could become a genocide. As is the African Union report into the Rwanda Genocide: “Each case of modern genocide has taken the world by surprise. Even when, in retrospect, it is clear that unmistakable warning signs and statements of intent were there in advance for all to see.”

The UN and its affiliated nations are on the frontlines providing humanitarian assistance to affected communities. In August, Sudanese officials approved requests to open the Adre border in Darfur to allow for aid missions to access critical areas. The World Food Programme has delivered food assistance to over 360,000 people in Darfur. WFP is also mobilized to scale up efforts in Zamzam, aiming to assist more than 180,000 people.

The 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Sudan has requested 2.7 billion dollars to help over 14 million people until the end of the year. With funding having reached only 49 percent, the UN urges donor contributions as conditions grow more dire every day.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The Busher nuclear power plant in Iran. IAEA/Paolo Contri
 
Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah and Hamas weaken Iran. The country’s will to cross the nuclear threshold is growing.

By Ruslan Suleymanov
CAIRO, Egypt, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

Violence in the Middle East has escalated dramatically since the Hamas terrorist attack in October 2023 and the fallout that has since followed. There is tension, if not a state of war, between all the major opponents on the ground.

Israel is directly facing off with mainly non-state actors from other countries, who have more firepower than their country’s national armies. Think of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq. Together with Hamas, they form the ‘Axis of Resistance’, an armed pro-Iranian alliance in the region.

For years, Tehran’s military doctrine was based on keeping any conflict with a potential enemy far away from its own borders. Now things are different. Iran has launched massive attacks against Israel from its own territory. The country’s shift in foreign policy is primarily a product of events in the Gaza Strip.

Although there is no evidence that Iran was involved in the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, officials in Tehran have openly welcomed the events that killed at least 1 200 people. ‘What they have done signifies pride, glory and strength; God will support them’, said then-Iranian-President Ebrahim Raisi as he congratulated Hamas.

Israel’s subsequent campaign in Gaza has now been going on for a year, claiming the lives of 40 000 civilians. The fate of many Israeli hostages remains unknown.

Israel has now shifted its strategy to intelligence operations. These include the assassination of the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in July, the killing of numerous Hezbollah fighters through exploding communications devices, and the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in October.

All of these were huge moral blows to Iran, showing that it cannot protect its puppets’ commanders even in their own countries — hence Tehran’s response to Israel’s attacks.

The only success that the Israelis’ ground invasion has achieved is that it has diverted the world’s attention away from the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah has lost at least 10 high-ranking leaders, not least Nasrallah, in Israel’s attacks. The militia seems to be on the ground in the long term, but how important it will be in the future is being questioned. Still, it’s too early to write off Hezbollah.

The group has around 100 000 fighters in its ranks, and its arsenal still consists of up to 150 000 missiles. History shows that these groups are quick to replace high-ranking leaders with other militants who can carry on the group’s work seamlessly. In 2004, Israel took out two Hamas leaders. But that only brought the group even greater popularity and influence.

The fact that the militia is still capable of resisting the Israeli government is demonstrated in its drone attack on 13 October this year. To date, more than 80 000 Israeli citizens have had to flee their homes in the north of the country and cannot return home because of coming under constant fire from Lebanon.

The only success that the Israelis’ ground invasion has achieved is that it has diverted the world’s attention away from the Gaza Strip. The situation there is dire: the prospects of freeing the remaining hostages are still slim, and Hamas continues to thrive. After all, Sinwar’s assassination does not mean Hamas has been defeated.

According to ACLED’s US analysts, the group has lost only about 8 500 of its 25 000 to 30 000 fighters in clashes with Israel. These losses are offset by unknown quantities of new Palestinian recruits, who lost friends and relatives in Israel’s attacks.

The attack on Lebanon also triggered the second massive Iranian missile attack on Israel within a year. Both attacks were calculated not in a way to cause maximum damage, but to send a symbolic message. Bold words from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued after the attack showed that Israel’s continued response is still unclear.

All-out war is not as likely as it is sometimes made out to be. This is also due to the great distance between Iran and Israel – at their nearest points, it is 1 200 kilometres. But it’s not just that …

Israel knows that attacking Tehran’s oil industry would send global prices in the crude oil market shooting up and upset its own allies, most notably the US.

Iran has mustered around 40 000 Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani and Syrian militants together in Syria. Iran has not tried to use them against Israel yet, as the Tehran leadership only knows too well that doing so would be suicide. What’s more, the situation in the oil market is preventing escalation on both sides.

While Iran relies on its oil revenues, Israel knows that attacking Tehran’s oil industry would send global prices in the crude oil market shooting up and upset its own allies, most notably the US. Ultimately, a massive attack on Iran with civilian casualties would rally its population around the otherwise unpopular government.

So, despite its military inferiority, the Iranian regime is actually in quite a favourable situation if it comes to direct conflict. Any escalation could only end up strengthening it.

And then there’s the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Officials in Iran have been clear in recent years that when it comes to nuclear weapons, their aim is to maintain what they call a ‘threshold status’, i.e. to be capable of producing nuclear weapons quickly, but only if needed.

The situation has changed dramatically here too. International observers have raised concerns that Iran could soon start developing a nuclear bomb, with US intelligence agencies reporting in July that active preparations were underway.

Shortly afterwards, the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that it could no longer be confident that Iran’s nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes.

It might sound paradoxical, but despite high inflation, more and more people in Iran support the idea of producing nuclear weapons. In a survey conducted by IranPoll, nearly 70 per cent of Iranians surveyed said that the country should possess its own nuclear weapons.

The more pressure that Israel or the West puts on Iran, the more determined the country will be to cross that nuclear threshold to deter a conventionally superior opponent if it deems it necessary.

Ruslan Suleymanov is a Russian orientalist and journalist. He was the senior Middle East correspondent of the TASS news agency in Cairo until February 2022. He resigned from this post in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Source: International Politics and Society (IPS)-Journal published by the International Political Analysis Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: UNRWA

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

As it continues to leave a mounting trail of death and destruction in Gaza, Israel has come under severe attack from the international community, including the United Nations and its humanitarian agencies, Western allies, the International Criminal Court (ICC) and scores of human rights experts.

During a conference in Paris, focusing on the new crisis unfolding in Lebanon, President Emmanuel Macron of France, a longtime Western ally and one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the UN Security Council, had “sharp words for Israel reflecting the view, even among Israel’s allies, that it has used excessive force against its enemies, resulting in disproportionate casualties and destruction,” according to the New York Times October 25.

“I am not sure you can defend a civilization by sowing barbarism yourself,” Macron declared.

Meanwhile, the rising death toll in Gaza has topped over 43,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, in retaliation for the 1,200 killed by Hamas inside Israel on October 7

And last week, over 150 civil society and non-governmental organizations (CSOs/NGOs) made a joint appeal to world governments to do “everything in their power to end this growing catastrophe and cycle of impunity. It is not only a moral imperative but a legal obligation.”

The CSOs urged all 193 UN Member States to “prevent further atrocities and ensure that those responsible for any violations of international law, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, are held accountable.”

Failure to act now risks further eroding international norms and emboldening perpetrators. The cycle of violence against civilians needs to stop, the CSOs declare.

The signatories include CIVICUS, Oxfam, United Nations Association — UK, Norwegian Refugee Council, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN), Saferworld, and the Jewish Network for Palestine, among others.

https://www.civicus.org/index.php/media-resources/news/7372-open-call-for-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-lebanon-and-israel-and-end-to-impunity-amid-a-spiralling-humanitarian-catastrophe-and-escalating-regional-conflict

Mandeep S. Tiwana, Interim Co-Secretary General, CIVICUS, told IPS “it’s deeply unfortunate that the United States government for all its talk of human rights continues to engage in moral dualism by providing diplomatic cover to the Israeli government.”

This is happening, he pointed out, despite overwhelming evidence of the commission of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide by Israeli forces. “It’s fair to conclude that there’s an element of inherent racism in how the Biden administration has approached the situation in Palestine.”

In the face of a relentless assault by an occupying force, the plight of the Palestinian people matters less to America’s top diplomats than the plight of the Ukrainian people to whom the same administration has extended all sorts of moral and material support, he added

“Until Israel’s politicians and military brass are brought before an international tribunal to face justice the cycle of violence in the Middle-East will continue to repeat itself,” warned Tiwana.

Even the US, one of Israel’s closest allies, couldn’t restraint itself.

Addressing a UN Security Council meeting on October 16, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US Ambassador to the UN, said she “watched in horror as images from central Gaza poured across my screen.”

“There were no words, simply no words, to describe what we saw. Israel has a responsibility to do everything possible to avoid civilian casualties, even if Hamas was operating near the hospital in an attempt to use civilians as human shields. We have made this clear to Israel,” she said.

“Just as we have made clear to the Israeli government at the highest levels, that it must do more to address the intolerable and catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” the US ambassador said.

Dr. James Jennings, President of Conscience International, told IPS that “Gaza’s horror defies description”.

For Israel to bomb the enclave day and night for a full year is certainly criminal, he argued, but to impose an embargo on vital medicine and food needed by millions for survival is the absolute depth of inhumanity.

Lately it has been almost impossible to get volunteer teams of doctors and life-saving medical supplies into the enclave. Shipments of food aid are now embargoed with no explanation or reason. Besides being inhumane, it makes no military sense, unless the objective is to punish the entire population, which is a war crime, he said.

International outrage is needed to force the gates of Gaza open again, declared Dr. Jennings.

The NGO letter says: Israel’s war in Gaza, following the deadly attacks by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October 2023, is the latest and most horrific onslaught of violence in the decades-long Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory.

After a year of unfathomable killing and destruction, patterns of civilian harm by Israeli forces are spreading and escalating from Gaza to Lebanon, while rocket attacks by armed groups in Lebanon continue. We are now on the precipice of even greater devastation across the region.

Failure to act now is a choice – a choice that will fail to stop and prevent future atrocities. The UN Commission of Inquiry concluded last week that Israel has committed war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination with relentless and deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities in Gaza, and called on member states to “cease aiding or assisting in the commission of violations.”

Over the last 12 months, the UN Security Council has passed four resolutions on Gaza, including one calling for a ceasefire, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Israel to take all measures within its power to prevent the commission of all acts within the scope of Article II of the Genocide Convention.

The ICJ also issued an Advisory Opinion that found that Israel’s occupation1 and annexation of Palestinian territory is illegal, and the UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding that Israel end its unlawful presence in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) within 12 months. Despite this, none of these measures have been implemented or adhered to.

“The international community’s egregious disregard for international law and the government of Israel’s unchecked impunity in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebanon, has set dangerous new precedents for the conduct of war,” says the letter.

For civilians in the occupied Palestinian territory and Lebanon, this has resulted in:

• Israeli military actions killing over 43,000 Palestinians across the oPt and more than 2,000 people in Lebanon.
• Israeli forces issuing displacement orders covering over 84% of Gaza’s territory and now 25% of Lebanon’s territory. These orders, combined with Israel’s bombardment, have forcibly displaced around 90% of Gaza’s population and over 800,000 people in Lebanon.
• An estimated 400,000 Palestinians are under siege and relentless bombardment in northern Gaza without access to food, water, fuel, or medical care. (UNRWA)
• The killing of over 300 Palestinian and international aid workers, and over 1000 health care workers in Gaza and 95 in Lebanon. UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon are also coming under attack by Israeli forces (UNIFIL). Israeli military attacks on hospitals, clinics, and ambulances have decimated the health care system in Gaza, and are destroying it in Lebanon – leaving millions without access to care.
• Countless children and adults are dying of malnutrition and facing the risk of starvation, directly induced by the Israeli government’s siege on Gaza, which includes systematic obstruction of humanitarian aid and essential services. (IPC)
• The killing of nearly 1,200 people in Israel during the Palestinian armed group led attacks on October 7, 2023 (OCHA).
• Rockets fired by Palestinian and Lebanese armed groups have killed and injured dozens of people (Amnesty International) and displaced over 140,000 Israelis.
• 101 hostages remain held by Palestinian armed groups, and thousands of Palestinians are unlawfully detained by Israeli forces in detention centers, including children, many whose whereabouts are unknown and have effectively

Many among us, says the letter, have repeatedly called for a permanent and unconditional ceasefire, hostage release, a halt to arms transfers, and de-escalation of tensions in the region, and yet the violence only appears to be intensifying.

Again, we call on all Heads of State and Governments, the UN Security Council, and actors on the ground to prioritise the preservation of human life above all else by:

• Securing an immediate ceasefire by all parties to the conflict and an end to the indiscriminate attacks that kill civilians and
destroy civilian infrastructure;
• Halting the transfer of weapons, parts, and ammunition to parties to the conflict that may be used to commit violations of international humanitarian law (IHL);
• Enabling unhindered humanitarian access for the delivery of lifesaving assistance, including food, medical supplies and fuel, and the safe movements of civilians and aid workers.
• Ensuring the protection of civilians from further forced displacement, and the right to return for those forcibly displaced. Civilians who choose to stay or are unable to leave remain protected under international law.
• Securing the release of all hostages and
• Immediately activating independent international investigations into all apparent violations of international humanitarian law and war crimes committed by all parties.

Governments must do everything in their power to end this growing catastrophe and cycle of impunity. It is not only a moral imperative but a legal obligation.

All Member States must prevent further atrocities and ensure that those responsible for any violations of international law, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, are held accountable. Failure to act now risks further eroding international norms and emboldening perpetrators. The cycle of violence against civilians needs to stop.

For more on what international humanitarian law says about occupation, please see commentary by ICRC.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Three-Michelin-starred chef Mauro Colagreco, the flag bearer of circular gastronomy, which aims to align food and nature. Credit: Mirazur

By Busani Bafana
CALI, Columbia & BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

“How we prepare and eat food should not be at the expense of our biodiversity,” says 3-Michelin-starred chef Mauro Colagreco, who is on a mission to change our relationship with food and what we choose to eat.

Colagreco, the owner of Mirazur, an award-winning restaurant in Menton, France, is a tribute to gastronomy. Among other world rankings, Mirazur’s fine food and service have earned it first place in the World’s 50 Best Restaurants. In the 2020 edition of the “100 Chefs” world ranking, Colagreco’s peers named him the Best Chef in the World and Chef of the Year in 2019. 

A passion for cooking and the love of nature shaped Colagreco’s philosophy on gastronomy.

“Feeding others, for me, is the first act of love,” Colagreco told IPS in an interview. “You know, when I was looking at my son being born, the first thing my wife did after giving birth was to feed the baby. For me, it was super strong to see that, and I always think about that, and that, for me, is the first act of love.”

Eating Without Eating the Planet

For over two decades, Colagreco has been the flag bearer of circular gastronomy, a culinary movement he initiated when he opened Mirazur in 2006.

Circular gastronomy aims to reconnect with nature while reconciling the perfect mastery of the techniques of cuisine with a genuine commitment to society’s wellbeing.

The principles of Colagreco’s circular gastronomy are captured in a manifesto that brings together food, nature and sustainability. It proposes a profound change in our relationship with food by making food choices that respect nature. Some of the principles call for the consumption of fresh, local, seasonal, organically or biodynamically grown produce. There is also a particular focus on the restoration of the soil and cooking that preserves plant and animal biodiversity.

In 2022, Colagreco was named the first ever Chef Goodwill Ambassador for Biodiversity by the United Nations Educational and Scientific Organization (UNESCO) in recognition of his promotion and protection of biodiversity. At the onset of COP16 in Cali, Colombia, which is discussing global biodiversity, IPS spoke with Colagreco about sustainable food and nature-positive eating.

UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay with Mauro Colagreco when he was announced as the first Chef Goodwill Ambassador. Credit: UNESCO

Here are excerpts from the interview:

IPS: You were appointed the first ever Goodwill Ambassador for Biodiversity? Why would a 3-Michelin-starred chef accept a role like this and what do you see yourself bringing to the role of a global ambassador for biodiversity?

Mauro Colagreco: Well, first of all, it is with deep gratitude and pride. I was super happy to accept this because I am very involved in the implementation of sustainability practices in my restaurant, Mirazur. I am involved with regenerative agriculture, the fight against plastic use, waste management, and all kinds of things we can do to make our footprint more sustainable. This role gives a lot of power to our message and our practices. It is an opportunity for bigger action to democratize a necessary vision for gastronomy—a more circular gastronomy. I believe that, as chefs, if we can act together, we will have a real impact.

This new role of ambassador recognizes that our responsibility as chefs is bigger than our kitchens. It shows that from the soil to the plate, everything is connected, and that we can lead a paradigm shift.

I am a day-to-day peaceful activist, and I’m a campaigner; we can’t be silent anymore. We must take action!

So, that’s why I accepted this role of goodwill ambassador, and what can I bring? I think first of all, I can bring my knowledge of the food industry. I know how it works now, and I know how it can be reshaped to work better. I can bring my experience because we have spent years testing and learning about several topics where we can have a real influence in our industry, in our region, and on our planet. My mission is to save biodiversity, save our food traditions, and make our food more sustainable. For me, the plan to follow is to educate everyone. The key is education.

With my fellow chefs through the Relais & Châteaux Association, of which I am the vice president, we regularly educate chefs about the challenge of biodiversity. For example, we are now continuing a major campaign to stop serving endangered species like eel in all the 800 restaurants of the network. Also, I have initiated a big program that will turn the chefs of Relais & Châteaux into local biodiversity ambassadors on a daily basis. This is a huge program with UNESCO, which we will announce in the coming weeks.

IPS: What motivated your commitment to sustainable food in the first place? What are your personal convictions? Can you explain more about this?

Colagreco: Yes, my personal conviction is that by choosing what we eat and what we cook, we choose the world we want to live in and that is really my motto.

To me, everything is interdependent and interconnected. We cannot isolate one aspect of life from another. If we change the way we grow food, we change our actual food;  we change the way our society works; we change our values. That is my life vision and mission.

What motivates me even more is to propose a real alternative to resolve the alarming situation we are facing. I understood that when I opened Mirazur in 2006. I had a bit of land at the restaurant, and I started gardening on a very small plot.

At that moment, I started to read a lot about agriculture, many books, and one especially, The One-Straw Revolution by Masanobu Fukuoka, really influenced me. This book changed my mind.

That is when I began to understand the profound link between gastronomy and the environment. I understood the importance of biodiversity for our cuisine, for cuisine in general, and, of course, for our planet. And then the small land where I started turned into five hectares of permaculture and biodynamic gardens, where I grew more than 1,500 species and varieties of vegetables. We produce nearly 70 percent of what we serve at the restaurant. So, what we propose, in the end, is a seed-to-plate gastronomy, because we take care of the whole process

IPS: What does it mean to reconcile the environmental impact of the world’s most exclusive fine dining with concerns about sustainability and better stewardship of nature?

Colagreco: That means that making food can no longer be at the expense of the planet. We need to reconnect with nature and rediscover the joy of feeding people in harmony with the planet.

Again, we can no longer eat while eating the planet; that is sure, but the problem is not haute gastronomy. In high gastronomy, you touch a very small segment of the population. The problem is mass consumption. You know, it is how we will feed the 8 billion people on the planet.

That is a huge thing, but that is not a problem because we have great news: we can take the same respectful methods we use in haute gastronomy, apply them to more accessible cuisine, and scale them up. Circular gastronomy, as I say, is not just for the rich elite but for everyone. We’ve tested it, and it works.

Mauro Colagreco believes feeding people is a first act of love and believes food, nature and sustainability should be one. Credit: Mirazur

IPS: You are attending the big Conference of the Parties (COP16) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia, this week. What are some of the things that you hope will be achieved by governments around the world at this meeting, and what do you personally hope to do at the COP?

Colagreco: I’m more than honored to be part of this important meeting. All the countries will be there, all the major organizations will be there, and we will all be looking at what we can do to save our biodiversity.

So, for me, in this situation of crisis, we need more ambitious policies to save where we live and our food, fundamentally change the way we live and consume, and fundamentally reorganize the way our society works.

As IPBES says, we need a common strategy because we are all in this together. My role as ambassador is to encourage change and show by example that there are solutions.

What I really want to do is make a solemn appeal to all governments, international organizations, chefs, educators, and citizens around the world to join forces and create and implement a global programme of good nutrition education for our children. I believe that this is the most important action to change the food system. Education is the key.

We need to create a generation that is aware of the importance of biodiversity and committed to making the right food choices. That’s why I really believe this appeal is important, and it is what I want to personally do at the COP.

IPS: You are clearly more than just a chef—your restaurants are exceptionally successful businesses as well. Why does sustainable food make good business sense?

Colagreco: Well, first, because I really believe it is the business of the future. To continue with our current paradigm is like a crime against humanity. The choice of circular gastronomy is a choice of awareness—it’s a choice of values. It means something to everyone. I’m delighted to see the younger generation becoming more aware of that. When I see my children, my sons, I tell myself that we are doing this for them to pass on the right message.

It is a real choice to work for sustainable food—it is usually more demanding—let’s face it. But what I find interesting is that it is like a sport. At first, it is hard to run a mile because you have not built up the muscles, but once you are trained, you can easily run for an hour or even more. So, it is the same for sustainable food and sustainable business; we need to start and be more physically ready.

To change habits is a choice. We must change habits. Of course, it is an effort; it is not easy to go out of your comfort zone. But we must. It is an obligation. Sustainable food is good business.

IPS: You are from Argentina—a country of the Global South—but you have restaurants in France, China, Thailand, and Japan. What role should the developing countries and the hospitality industries in the Global South play in sustainable food and biodiversity conservation?

Colagreco: We have to be careful because my role as ambassador is to lead by example and amplify the voice of biodiversity. We have about 30 restaurants worldwide, and it’s very interesting because the more I travel, the more I realize that the challenges are different everywhere. Situations vary so much that, of course, there is no one way.

It is not the same situation in Asia, South America, the United States, Europe, or Africa. Even in every area, you have very different situations

My first priority when settling in a new country is to identify the local committed producer, with whom I can work to implement our circular gastronomy. My aim is always the same: to cook as much local, fresh and well-grown produce as possible. It is a question of respect for our clients and for the communities that work hard to offer a better food alternative. It’s a question of respecting our planet.

Everyone needs to contribute, and my role is not to point fingers. The role of governments is to support their sustainable agriculture, their sustainable fishing industry, to protect their waste management, to regulate it and to fight against all unsustainable practices.

And the role of hospitality leaders is to have the courage to let circular gastronomy define their food and beverage offers.

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Indigenous women in Cali hold a protest commodificationof their traditional natural products. Majority of the indigenous organizations participants in the COP have been vocal about their opposition to biodiversitycredits, which they think is a false solution to halt biodiversity loss. Credit:Stella Paul/IPS COP16 Logo, installed at the conference venue atCali, Colombia. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

By Stella Paul
CALI, Columbia, Oct 26 2024 (IPS)

At the end of the first week at the 16th Conference of Parties on Biodiversity (COP16), finance emerges as the biggest issue but also shrouded in controversies.

On Saturday, as the COP moved closer to its most crucial phase of negotiations, resource mobilization—listed under Target 19 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)—took centerstage, with most parties demanding faster action, greater transparency and the adoption of true solutions to halt biodiversity loss. 

Biodiversity finance: Expectation vs Reality

On Thursday, October 24, the government of China formally announced that the Kunming Biodiversity Fund—first announced by Chinese president Xi Jinping in 2021—was now fully in operation. The fund promises to contribute USD 220 million over the next 10 years, which would be spent especially to help developing countries in implementation of the KMGBF and achieve its targets, said Huang Runqiu, Minister of Environment and Ecology, China, at a press conference. It wasn’t clear, however, how much of the promised amount had been deposited.

This has been the only news of resource mobilization for global biodiversity conservation received at COP16, as no other donors came forth with any further announcements of new financial pledges or contributions to the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund (GBFF), which was expected to receive USD 400 billion in contribution by now but has only received a paltry USD 250 million.  In addition, there were no announcements of the countries reducing their current spending on harmful subsidies that amount to USD 500 billion and cause biodiversity degradation and biodiversity loss.

In absence of new contributions and lack of any concrete progress on reduction of harmful subsidies, the new mechanisms like biodiversity credits to mobilize resources for implementation of the Global Biodiversity Fund is fast gaining traction.

From October 21–24, the COP16 witnessed a flurry of activities centered primarily around biodiversity credits and the building of new pathways to mobilize finance through this means. Experts from both the UN and the private sector were heard at various forums discussing the needs of developing tools and methodologies that would help mobilize new finance through biodiversity credits while also ensuring transparency.

COP16 logo, installed at the conference venue in Cali, Colombia. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

Inclusiveness and the Questions

According to a 2023 report by the World Economic Forum, the demand for biodiversity credits could rise to USD 180 billion annually by 2050. The report said that if major companies stepped into the market, the annual demand for biodiversity credits could go to as high as USD 7 billion per year by 2030.

Experts from the UN and a variety of technical people with various backgrounds said that since biodiversity credits are still in their infancy, there will undoubtedly be a lot of scrutiny and criticism. The Biodiversity Credit Alliance is a group that provides guidance for the establishment of a biodiversity credit market. The urgent need, they said, was to develop infrastructure and policies that would help answer those questions and tackle the scrutiny. The first and foremost of them was to help build digital tools and infrastructure that could be used to share and store biodiversity data in a credible and transparent manner.

Nathalie Whitaker, co-founder of Toha Network in New Zealand, a group of nature-based business investors, said that her organization is building digital tools, especially for helping local communities to participate in biodiversity credit programs and access the benefits.

“Once the communities have these tools, they can instantly see what data is being used to pay for the biodiversity credits or even decide the value of the natural sources in their territory. So, they can see what resources are being discussed, what is being valued, how it’s being done and how the whole discussion is moving forward,” Whitaker said.

Fabian Shimdt-Pramov, another speaker at the event, said that the quality of the tools would decide the course and results of a biodiversity credits project.

Shimdt-Pramov, chief business development officer at Biometric Earth, a German company that uses artificial intelligence to build biodiversity analytics tools from different sources such as remote sensing, wildlife cameras, acoustic monitoring, etc.

“If methodology is not correct, if the data is not correct, the system doesn’t work,” he said, emphasizing on the requirement of high-level technological expertise that is needed to get a biodiversity credit project off the ground.

However, when questioned on the cost of buying such high-end technologies and tools, especially by Indigenous communities living in remote areas without any internet connectivity, both speakers appeared to be at a loss for words.

“I have seen in the Amazon a community selling five mahogany trees on the internet, so I am guessing it’s not a big challenge,” Shmidt-Pramov said in a dismissive voice. Whitaker acknowledged that lack of access to digital technology in Indigenous Peoples communities was an issue but had no solutions to propose.

Terence Hay-Edie of Nature ID, UNDP, however, stressed the need to empower the communities with the knowledge and skills that would help them access the tools and be part of a biodiversity credit.

As an example, he cites restoration of river-based biodiversity as a biodiversity credit project where a river is considered to have the same rights as a human being. According to him, if values of credits are counted and traded for restoration of biodiversity around a river, it will require recognition of all these rights that a river has, which is only possible when the community living along the river has full knowledge of what is at stake, what is restored, what value of the restored biodiversity is to be determined and how the pricing of that value will be decided.

“A river can be a legal entity and have a legal ID. Now, can we build some tools and put them in the hands of the community that is doing the restoration to know the details of it? That’s what we are looking at,” Hay-Edie said.

A False Solution?

However, Indigenous peoples organizations at the COP16 were overwhelmingly opposing biodiversity credits, which they called “commodifying nature.”

What are biodiversity credits? It’s basically regenerating biodiversity where it is destroyed and earning money from that. But it doesn’t work that way, according to Souparna Lahiri, senior climate change campaigner at Global Forest Coalition.

“If we talk of a forest, the ecosystem is not just about trees but about every life that thrives in and around it—the rivers, the animals, plants, bees, insects, flowers and all the organisms. Once destroyed, it’s lost forever. And when you regenerate it elsewhere, you can never guarantee that it will be an exact replica of what has been lost.  This is why the very concept of biodiversity credit is a destructive idea,” says Lahiri.

Valentina Figuera, also of the Global Forest Coalition, said that while trading carbon credits could work as a tool in carbon change mitigation, it would not be the same in biodiversity.

“In climate change, you can measure the total carbon generated by a forest, for example. But in biodiversity, how do you measure it? What is the mechanism? How do you even value life that thrives there? So, this concept is a straight import from climate change and forcefully imposed in biodiversity, which is nothing but a false solution, so that businesses that cause biodiversity loss can conduct their business as usual.

The Dilemma of Participation

COP16, dubbed the “People’s Cop” by Colombia, the host country, has drawn several hundred representatives of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLC), especially from across Latin America, including Colombia, Brazil, Panama, Venezuela and Peru. While the Latin American IPLC organizations appeared united in their opposition to biodiversity credits, African organizations seemed to be willing to consider it.

Mmboneni Esther Mathobo of the South African NGO International Institute of Environment said that her organization was in support of biodiversity credits, which could, she said, not only help the community earn money but also motivate them further to preserve biodiversity.

“We are influencing and making sure that our rights are safeguarded and protected in this newly emerging market of bringing biodiversity credits,” said Mathobo.

Currently, Namibia is implementing its first biodiversity carbon credits project in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Known as the Wildlife Credits Scheme, the project is known as a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) that rewards communities for protecting wildlife and biodiversity.  Mathobo said that the project in Namibia made her realize that there was a great opportunity for local communities to conserve and restore biodiversity and earn from it.

“We faced many challenges to earn carbon credits because that system was established and created behind our heads. And now we wake up, but we find ourselves sitting with a lot of problems in that market where our communities are not even benefiting. But we believe that with the engagement of the biodiversity alliance, UNDP, we are going to be the ones making sure that whatever happens in the biodiversity credit market, it benefits all our regions and all our communities, as well as safeguarding and protecting our rights,” she said.

“To each their own, if Latin American indigenous communities feel they don’t want to trade natural resources, that’s their right. But in Africa, we have the potential to earn biodiversity credits and we need the money, so we are supporting it,” Mahobo commented when reminded of the opposition of Latin American countries to biodiversity credits.

Source: World Economic Forum Report on Biodiversity Credit

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Anyone interested in unsolved murders and disappearances will find much to study in Sri Lanka. Fifteen to twenty years ago, the country made global headlines, not only for the government’s military offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrillas but also for the numerous murders of journalists. The newly elected president, Anura Kumara […]

Better drawing rights from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could assist with the just transition.

By Kevin P. Gallagher and Abebe Shimeles
BOSTON, USA & CAPE TOWN, South Africa, Oct 25 2024 (IPS)

At the 2021 UN Climate Summit, Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley called for more and better use of special drawing rights (SDRs), the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset.

The special drawing right is an international reserve asset created by the IMF. It is not a currency—its value is based on a basket of five currencies, the biggest chunk of which is the US dollar, followed by the euro. It is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Special drawing rights can provide a country with liquidity.

Countries can use their special drawing rights to pay back IMF loans, or they can exchange them for foreign currencies.

As Mottley is the newest president of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and Vulnerable Group of 20 (V20) finance ministers, which represents 68 climate-vulnerable countries that are among those with the most dire liquidity needs, including 32 African countries, her call would be directly beneficial to African countries.

In August 2021, as the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic battered their economies, African countries received a lifeline of US$33 billion from special drawing rights. This amounts to more than all the climate finance Africa receives each year and more than half of all annual official development assistance to Africa.

This US$33 billion did not add to African countries’ debt burden, it did not come with any conditions, and it did not cost donors a single cent to provide.

IMF members can vote to create new issuances of special drawing rights. They are then distributed to countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. Quotas are denominated in special drawing rights, the IMF’s unit of account.

Quotas are the building blocks of the IMF’s financial and governance structure. An individual member country’s quota broadly reflects its relative position in the world economy. Thus, by design, the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive the least when it comes to quotas and voting shares.

Special drawing rights cannot solve all of Africa’s economic challenges. And their highly technical nature means they are not always well understood. But at a time when African countries are facing chronic liquidity challenges—most countries in the region are spending more on debt service payments than they are on health, education, or climate change—our new research shows that special drawing rights can play an important role in establishing financial stability and enabling investments for development.

Financial stability includes macroeconomic stability (such as low inflation, healthy balance of payments, sufficient foreign reserves), a strong financial system and resilience to shocks.

African leaders are approaching a critical year-long opportunity: in November, the first Group of 20 (G20) summit will convene (with the African Union in attendance as a member for the first time). Then in December, South Africa assumes the G20 presidency.

As African leaders advocate for reforms to the international financial architecture, maximising the potential of special drawing rights should be a central component of their agenda.

The problem

African countries’ finances are facing tough times. External debt in sub-Saharan Africa has tripled since 2008. The average government is now spending 12% of its revenue on external debt service. The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and rises in interest rates and the prices of commodities, like food and fertiliser, have all contributed to this trend.

Debt restructuring mechanisms have also proved inadequate. Countries like Zambia and Ghana got stuck in lengthy restructurings. Weak institutional capacity and poor governance also impede efficient use of public resources.

At the same time, African economies need to increase investment to advance development, support a young and growing population, develop climate resilience and take advantage of the opportunity presented by the energy transition.

To meet the resources for a just energy transition and the attainment of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, investment in climate and development will have to increase from around 24% of GDP (the average for Africa in 2022) to 37%.

Special drawing rights have proved to be an important tool in addressing these challenges. Research by the IMF and others shows that African countries significantly benefited from the special drawing rights they received in 2021 to stabilise their economies. And this happened without worsening debt burdens or costing advanced economies any money, particularly as they cut development aid.

However, advanced economies exercise significant control over the availability of special drawing rights. The IMF’s quota system determines both voting power and their distribution. Advanced economies control most of the IMF’s quotas.

The advanced economies made the right decision in 2021 and in 2009 to issue new special drawing rights and the time has come again.

The solution

African and other global south leaders need to make a strong case for another issuance of special drawing rights at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.

In addition to a new issuance of special drawing rights, advanced economies still need to be pressured to re-channel the hundreds of billions of special drawing rights sitting idle on their balance sheets into productive purposes.

The 2021 allocation of special drawing rights amounted to US$650 billion in total. But only US$33 billion went to African countries due to the IMF’s unequal quota distribution. Meanwhile, advanced economies with powerful currencies and no need for special drawing rights received the lion’s share.

The African Development Bank has spearheaded one such proposal alongside the Inter-American Development Bank. Under this plan, countries with unused special drawing rights could re-channel them to the African Development Bank as hybrid capital, allowing the bank to lend around $4 for each $1 of special drawing rights it receives.

The IMF approved the use of special drawing rights as hybrid capital for multilateral development banks in May. But it set an excessively low limit of 15 billion special drawing rights across all multilateral development banks.

Even so, advanced economies have been slow to re-channel special drawing rights. The close to $100 billion that have been re-channeled—mostly to IMF trust funds—is meaningful.

But it still falls short of what should have been re-channelled.

In the long term, IMF governance reforms are needed to avoid a repeat of the inefficient distribution of special drawing rights.

As African countries rightly push to change shortcomings of the international financial architecture, new special drawing rights issuances should be at the centre of such a strategy. The IMF’s 2021 special drawing rights issuance showed the tool’s scale and importance. And special drawing rights re-channelling has had positive effects in easing debt burdens and freeing up financing to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

With 2030 approaching and the window shrinking for climate action, global leaders should be using all the tools at their disposal, including special drawing rights, to build a more resilient future.

Kevin P. Gallagher, Professor of Global Development Policy and Director, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University and Abebe Shimeles, Honorary Professor, University of Cape Town

Note: This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Kevin P. Gallagher is from Boston University and Abebe Shimeles from the University of Cape Town

 

 

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Ma Moe Wathan (21) feeds her daughter Pan Ei (1.8 year) in their hostel room in A Lal village, Hlaing Thar Yar township, Yangon, Myanmar. Credit: UNICEF/Nyan Zay Htet

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 25 2024 (IPS)

With the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and social media, the dissemination of public information moves at a faster speed than ever before. Social media platforms have become an integral tool for users of younger generations to access the news. Although this shift has led to public news being more accessible to younger users, it has also led to an overall decline in media literacy.

According to a study by the Pew Research Center, approximately 54 percent of U.S. adults get their news from social media platforms such as X (formerly known as Twitter), Tiktok, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

In an increasingly digital age, media literacy has seen a significant decline. Experts have attributed this to the rise of social media, which has led to shorter attention spans among younger generations. Gloria Mark, PhD, professor of informatics at the University of California, states that the average attention spans recorded in 2004 were about two and a half minutes. In the last five years, this has dwindled to about 47 seconds.

Social media platforms offer users a rapidly changing and endless flow of content, which has a negative impact on attention spans. Constant switches from one source of stimuli to another have adverse effects on the default network of the brain and its functions, making it difficult for users to maintain attention.

A study published by the University of British Columbia titled Mind-wandering as spontaneous thought: a dynamic framework, states that “attention and the focus of thoughts frequently shift back and forth between the internal and external environment; there is often a simultaneous deactivation of the DN (default network of the brain) in many different task paradigms”.

While news organizations have social media accounts in an effort to spread the truth and get more engagement, they find themselves being overshadowed by content creators who can more effectively captivate the short attention spans of internet users. These users often incorporate sensationalized language and spread false narratives.

The same study from the Pew Research Center reports that 64 percent of adults surveyed reported feeling confused on what is real or not due to the misinformation or ‘clickbait’ that runs rampant on social platforms. 23 percent reported that they shared false information either knowingly or unknowingly.

Misinformation, while not always intentionally harmful, can have negative effects on the relationship between experts and the public. “Polarization on topics such as climate change and vaccines has damaged public trust in science, which makes it harder for scientists to serve society,” said Dr Ataharul Chowdhury, an agricultural scientist at the University of Guelph.

The rise of generative AI in media spaces has added a layer of complication, as social analysts describe it as an amplifier for misinformation. The field of AI is largely unregulated and offers users the tools to create hyper realistic images and photos that could easily deceive viewers.

As Gita Johar, the Meyer Feldberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School, Columbia University explained, the presence of AI and the “amount of misinformation” created in social media sites is going to multiply.

“People have started realizing that AI is behind a lot of this misinformation. Over time, they’re not going to know what to trust anymore, plus there’s such a deficit of trust in society as it is. As AI does more and more, even if you have disclaimers saying such and such was produced by AI, what you’re going to see is consumers becoming more skeptical of information,” she said.

The effects of the decline in media literacy has significant ramifications on the ways that people conduct their daily practices, inlcuding when it comes to food. Facts about the relationship between the meat industry and food production have been largely divisive among the American public.

According to the United Nations (UN), the meat production industry is a significant contributor to the climate crisis, emitting more greenhouse gasses than the world’s biggest oil companies. Additionally, meat production is responsible for dwindling water resources and exacerbates deforestation.

A 2023 survey conducted by the Washington Post-University of Maryland reports that 74 percent of Americans think that meat production and consumption has little to no detrimental impact on the environment.

A report published by Changing Markets Foundation (CMF) used opinion mining and language processing algorithms to detect over 948,000 tweets from 1 June 2022 to 31 July 2023 that contained misinformation about meat production and its impacts, as well as false statements about alternative practices such as adopting plant-rich diets and consuming poultry instead of red meat.

CMF summarized the main sentiments found in misleading posts that focused on meat production and consumption. 78 percent of users disparaged alternatives of meat and dairy products and discredited their potential benefits for the environment and public health. 22 percent of users tweeted that meat consumption is wholly beneficial for the human body. Many users also attempted to refute scientific data on the environmental impact of global animal agriculture.

Misinformation surrounding agriculture and plant consumption has become widespread in the past two decades. Genetically modified crops and organic farming have been points of significant contention for both farmers and consumers in recent years.

While there are supporters for both sides of the argument, it is farmers and marketers who appeal to the consumer’s fears of health concerns and environmental damage to convince people to buy their products. “Agri-food misinformation creates anxiety, uncertainty and confusion among farmers and consumers,” says Chowdhury.

Transparent advertising is essential for the agriculture industry, especially in today’s climate where people do not know if they can trust the food that they are eating. “Businesses can lead the way here. Advertisers need to work together to make this happen. It’s good for them, and it’s good for society. It’s really a win-win. Then they can actually force platforms to abide by some kind of rules and procedures and make sure that they’re actually monitoring and trying to prevent the spread of misinformation,” says Johar.

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Credit: World Meteorological Organization/Muhammad Amdad Hossain

By Selahattin Selsah Pasali and Selim Raihan
BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct 25 2024 (IPS)

In the coming decades, the Asia-Pacific region faces a series of challenges that threaten to exacerbate poverty. Among these, climate change, demographic shifts, particularly population ageing and the rise of digital technologies stand out as three interconnected global megatrends.

A recent technical paper supporting the Social Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2024 explores various scenarios on how climate change, demographic shifts and digitalization could impact poverty. It reveals that 266 million people could be at risk of falling into poverty by 2040.

This underscores the urgent need to strengthen and finance social protection systems across the region, as addressing these issues proactively is far more cost-effective than reacting to them later.

Understanding the megatrends

Climate change is increasingly evident, with rising temperatures, extreme weather and disrupted ecosystems impacting both the environment and economies. This poses a direct threat to livelihoods, especially for those dependent on agriculture and natural resources.

Population ageing is another significant trend. While longer life expectancy is positive, it strains social services, healthcare and pension systems. Without integrated policies to address these pressures, public resources, already strained by debt, could face further strain, risking economic instability.

Digital technologies advance rapidly, offering growth and efficiency benefits but also posing challenges. Job displacement and increased inequality are potential risks if these technologies are not managed inclusively. Balancing their benefits and risks is crucial for equitable progress.

The Impact on Poverty

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to project 2040 scenarios, varying degrees of climate change, demographic shifts, and digitalization show a stark contrast between optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, highlighting the crucial need to enhance social protection expenditures. Two scenarios are considered in the model with results presented in Figure 1:

• Optimistic scenario: This scenario assumes a 1.5-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures, that populations age in a healthy manner, and significant improvements are made by countries in ICT productive capacity by 2040. Under this scenario, the projected increase in poverty by 2040 is 199.8 million people or 6.5 per cent of the total population in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Pessimistic scenario: In contrast, the pessimistic scenario assumes a 2.0-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures, no progress in healthy ageing and insufficient advancements in ICT productivity. Here, the poverty headcount is projected to increase by 266.1 million people or 8.7 per cent of the total population.

Source: ESCAP elaborations based on GTAP model and household income and expenditure surveys from 27 countries available in ESCAP SPOT Simulator. Note: As per table 5.1, three global megatrends including climate change, demographic shifts, including ageing, and digitalization are introduced in the GTAP model as shocks.
 
The pessimistic scenario presumes a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature, populations ageing in an unhealthy manner and countries slowly improving their ICT Productive Capacity. The optimistic scenario presumes a 1.5-degree Celsius rise in temperature, populations ageing in a healthy manner with less health expenditures needed and countries making significant improvements in their ICT Productive Capacity.

The difference between these scenarios illustrates the profound impact of each megatrend. Climate change is a major driver of increased poverty. For instance, under a pessimistic scenario, Kiribati, Nepal and Tonga could see their poverty rates rise by over 15 percentage points relative to the baseline.

Even with just a 1.5°C warming, the regional average poverty rate could increase by 2.8 percentage points, highlighting climate change’s significant impact on poverty. Population ageing is also a critical factor.

Without healthy ageing, an additional 10 million people might fall into poverty due to rising healthcare costs, with countries like Armenia, Kiribati, Maldives and Mongolia being especially vulnerable. Digitalization, though less impactful overall, has notable effects in specific countries like Türkiye, Viet Nam and Vanuatu, influencing differences between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

The urgent need for action

If social protection expenditures are not increased, the cost of mitigating the rise in poverty could be substantial. To counteract the projected poverty increases, approximately 6.2 per cent of GDP would need to be mobilized under the optimistic scenario.

The total cost would increase to 8.7 per cent of GDP in 2040 under the pessimistic scenario. These are lower-bound estimates as they assume governments could directly target affected households and seamlessly provide cash transfers.

The projected rise in poverty and associated costs underscore the urgent need for government action which necessitates stronger political will to match the associated investment needs. Empirical analysis supports several key policy recommendations.

Governments should implement policies for a just transition, which includes effective climate action to mitigate the economic and social impacts of both sudden and gradual disasters and to support the shift towards a net-zero emissions economy.

Additionally, strategies for healthy ageing and investing in healthcare infrastructure, such as universal social health protection, can ease the financial strain of an ageing population, ensuring social stability and economic prosperity.

At the same time, policymakers should also focus on fostering inclusive digital economies, providing opportunities for all, including those at risk of being left behind. Investments in digital literacy and skills training are crucial to counteract digital disruption’s negative effects.

Overall, expanding social protection coverage and increasing benefit levels are essential. This includes implementing social protection floors and gradually enhancing multi-pillared systems to cover more individuals and increase benefits, ensuring no one is excluded from protection against life cycle contingencies and shocks.

Originally published as an opinion piece by Nikkei Asia.

Selahattin Selsah Pasali is Social Affairs Officer, Social Development Division, ESCAP; Selim Raihan is Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Executive Director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM)

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