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How Rwanda is Saving One of its Most Important Crops—the Banana—With an SMS

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 13:16

Rwanda is combatting banana disease through digital innovation. Credit: Alejandro Arigón/IPS

By Aimable Twahirwa
KIGALI, Aug 29 2018 (IPS)

When Telesphore Ruzigamanzi, a smallholder banana farmer from a remote village in Eastern Rwanda, discovered a peculiar yellowish hue on his crop before it started to dry up, he did not give it the due consideration it deserved.

“I was thinking that it was the unusually dry weather causing damage to my crop,” Ruzigamanzi, who lives in Rwimishinya, a remote village in Kayonza district in Eastern Rwanda, tells IPS.

But in fact, it was a banana wilt infection."The launch of the smart or normal mobile application supports our ongoing efforts to best control the disease in a cost-effective way." -- Julius Adewopo, lead on ICT for the BXW project at IITA

Here, in this East African nation, Banana Xanthomonas Wilt or BXW is detrimental to a crop and has far-reaching consequences not only for farmers but for the food and nutritional security of their families and those dependent on the crop as a source of food.

Banana is an important crop in East and Central Africa, with a number of countries in the region being among the world’s top-10 producers.

According to a household survey of districts in Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda, banana accounts for about 50 percent of the household diet in a third of Rwanda’s homes, where “annual per capita consumption of banana ranges from 400-600 kg, the highest in the world.”

But the top factor affecting banana production in all three countries, according to the survey, was BXW.

If not handled correctly, it can result in 100 percent loss of crop.

The latest Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis report released by the Rwandan government and its partners in 2015 indicates:

  • For 2015, nearly one million metric tons of bananas were produced by the country.
  • This was a reduction in productivity.
  • In 2013, for the same period evaluated in 2015, 1.2 million metric tons were produced.

Despite this trend across the country, the report found that the south-eastern Plateau Banana Zone still showed high levels of food security.

Complacency and lack of information contribute to spread of the disease

The BXW disease is not new to the country. It was first reported here in 2002. Since then, there have been numerous, rigorous educational campaigns by agricultural authorities and other stakeholders, including non-governmental organisations.

Farmers in Ruzigamanzi’s region have been trained by a team of researchers from the Rwanda Agriculture Board and local agronomists about BXW. But Ruzigamanzi, a father of six, was one of the farmers missed by the educational campaign.

He was unaware of BXW.

Had he known what the disease was, and depending on its state of progress on the plant, Ruzigamanzi would have had to remove the symptomatic plants, cutting them at soil level when first observing symptoms. If left too long he would have had to remove the entire plant from the root.

And it is what he ended up doing two weeks later when a visiting local agronomist came to look at the plant.

By then it was too late to save the tree and Ruzigamanzi had to uproot all the affected mats, including the rhizome and all its attached stems, the parent plant and its suckers.

Ruzigamanzi’s story is not unique. In fact a great number of smallholder farmers in remote rural regions have been ignoring or are unaware of the symptoms of this bacterial banana infection. And it has increased the risk of resurgence of the disease in the region, with several districts in Eastern Rwanda being affected by the disease in recent years.

Using technology to educate rural farmers about the spread of a deadly crop disease

It is one of the reasons why scientists here began looking at alternative ways of educating farmers and monitoring and collecting data about the disease.

In June, a collaboration between the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Bioversity International, the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies and the Rwandan government began to tackle the disease through the use of digital innovation.

The new initiative, launched with a total investment of 1.2 million Euros from development partners, seeks to explore the adoption of smart phones and tablets as scalable tools in generating up-to-date knowledge about BXW.

“These [ICT] innovations could also be useful in determining the severity of the disease thus strengthening control measure, based on past experience and instructions,” Julius Adewopo, lead on ICT for the BXW project at IITA, tells IPS.

According to the 2017 report by Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority, Rwanda’s mobile telephone penetration is currently estimated at 75.5 percent in a country of about 12 million people, with a large majority of the rural population currently owning mobile phones.

Central to the project is the citizen science approach, which means farmers and extension officers play leading roles in collecting and submitting data on disease transmission patterns.

Still in the pilot phase, across the country a group of 70 trained farmers, agricultural extension officers and food producers from eight districts use their mobile phones to submit data on the bacterial disease incidence and severity via What’s App or SMS messages. A mobile app was also designed to enhance the user experience.

The mobile app provides a real-time and dynamic way to represent disease information on maps, after analysing the collected information from the field.

“The launch of the smart or normal mobile application supports our ongoing efforts to best control the disease in a cost-effective way,” Adewopo tells IPS.

A real-time reporting system on the disease

While the existing National Banana Research Programme here has long focused on five key areas of interventions, which include the prevention of BXW using recommended crop disease prevention approaches, Adewopo stresses that the unique aspect of the mobile app is that it is easily scalable in a real time system and the information provided on the application can adapt quickly to any changes.

While the new reporting system is intended to provide an early warning system that will allow the Rwandan government to target efforts to prevent the spread of BXW, it also aims to serve as a catalyst to mobilise partnerships, says Mariette McCampbell, a research fellow involved in ICT-enabled innovation and scaling at IITA’s office in Kigali.

“This innovation can also adapt to other crop disease control in the long term and it aims at supporting farmers to transition from subsistence to entrepreneurial farming,” she tells IPS during an exclusive interview.

McCampbell is one of the co-authors on a report about the project, which notes that data is key to developing policies and prevention strategies to aid in combatting the disease.

“We see limitations in the amount of reliable and up-to-date data about disease diffusion patterns, severity of outbreaks, and effect of control measures, as well as socio-economic and socio-cultural data that could feed into farmer decision-making tools and an early warning system.

“Development of informed policies and prevention strategies is also hindered by the absence of large-scale accurate data,” the report notes.

According to IITA, the livelihoods and food security of an estimated 30 million farmers is currently threatened by the wide spread of BXW and fungal disease. Both diseases have decimated banana crops in East and Central Africa.

“Banana farmers in Rwanda should leverage the benefits of this technology using the existing IT infrastructure with the speed of mobile phone penetration in the country,” Adewopo says.

*Additional reporting by Nalisha Adams in Johannesburg

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The post How Rwanda is Saving One of its Most Important Crops—the Banana—With an SMS appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Categories: Africa

Nigeria needs 'world's help' to tackle corruption

BBC Africa - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 12:40
Deputy High Commissioner to UK, Kabiru Bala, calls for international cooperation.
Categories: Africa

Striking the Right Note: a History of Paper Money

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 12:18

TADEUSZ GALEZA is a research officer in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department. JAMES CHAN is a senior information management assistant in the IMF’s Statistics Department.

By Tadeusz Galeza and James Chan
WASHINGTON DC, Aug 29 2018 (IPS)

From strings of shells in the Solomon Islands to large stone disks on the Micronesian isle of Yap or wheels of Parmigiano-Reggiano cheese in Italy, money has taken many forms throughout history.

Today, banknotes are an artistic expression of national sovereignty, with many countries choosing to immortalize famous authors and activists, local wildlife, and iconic national landmarks. In other words, modern paper money represents the essence, history, beauty, and ideals to which each country aspires.

To see this diversity in action, we need look no further than the 189 member countries of the IMF that churn out 136 unique national currencies and form four currency unions.

Standouts include the Malawian kwacha, the smallest banknote in our study at about 87 percent the size of the US dollar bill. At the other end of the spectrum are the Brunei and the Singapore dollars, the largest banknotes in circulation, each with a total area of more than 150 percent of the US dollar bill—calling for a really deep wallet.

Banknotes across the world are rectangular, but most are wider rather than they are tall. Swiss francs, for example, tend to be very slender, while British pounds and Kenyan shillings are more square.

Yet despite the variations in design, the properties that define currency are the same: they are a unit of measure, a store of value, and a medium of exchange. Paper bills, or “fiat” money, also have no intrinsic value; their worth is determined solely through supply and demand, and they are declared legal tender by government decree.

The most important element that separates one national currency from another is its value. Central banks decide what the largest note in circulation should be, and its nominal value is determined by the number of zeros—this indicates the purchasing power of the note within the country.

Currently, the largest bills changing hands range from 20 Bahrain dinars to 500,000 Vietnamese dong. Historically, because of hyperinflation, many countries printed banknotes with a cartoonish number of zeros: Yugoslavia issued a 500 billion dinar bill in 1991, and Zimbabwe a 100 trillion dollar bill in 2009.

 

 

Today, a hundred units of currency (for example, 100 US dollars) is most commonly the highest available banknote in each country. But the real value (proxied here by its worth in US dollars) is where the rubber hits the road.

On average, the largest banknote in circulation across countries is equivalent to 33 US dollars, but the difference in real value from country to country could not be more stark. It takes three 100 South Sudanese pound notes (their largest in circulation) to purchase a medium coffee at Starbucks. At the opposite end, it takes only two of Brunei’s largest bills—10,000 dollar notes—to buy a 2018 Toyota Yaris sedan.

Cash, nevertheless, may not be king forever.

With digital currencies and online transactions gaining steam worldwide, the future of paper money may be in jeopardy. What was once valued precisely because of its physicality is giving way to a new global economy where more and more transactions—big and small—are processed electronically.

Perhaps one day countries will design and issue banknotes of the virtual kind, embedded with even richer features to celebrate all they hold dear. Until then, however, paper banknotes will retain an undeniable appeal.

The link to the original article follows:  http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/value-of-paper-money-around-the-world/currency.htm?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

PHOTO CREDITS: ISTOCK.COM/BENEDEK, MICHAEL BURRELL, YEVGENROMANENKO, ALAMY.COM/CHRISTOPH RUEEGG, CHRONICLE

Opinions expressed in the article are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.

The post Striking the Right Note: a History of Paper Money appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

TADEUSZ GALEZA is a research officer in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department. JAMES CHAN is a senior information management assistant in the IMF’s Statistics Department.

The post Striking the Right Note: a History of Paper Money appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Categories: Africa

UAE attends nuclear disarmament conference in Astana

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 11:56

By WAM
ASTANA, Aug 29 2018 (WAM)

Dr. Mohammed Ahmed bin Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Ambassador to Kazakhstan, today attended the opening ceremony of the International Conference of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation, CTBTO, titled “Remembering the Past, Looking to the Future”.

The conference, held on 29th August- 2nd September, coincides with the International Day against Nuclear Tests – observed on 29th August – and was introduced by the UN General Assembly in 2009 at the initiative of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The five-day conference was opened in the presence of Kairat Abdrakhmanov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs; Kanat Bozumbayev, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy, senior officials of the Kazakh Government, and scientists in nuclear disarmament, as well as heads of diplomatic missions and international organisations accredited to Astana.

The participants will discuss the role of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation towards building a lasting global peace, including by enhancing the status of the Treaty.

On the sidelines of the conference, Ambassador Al Jaber met with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister and Energy Minister.

 

WAM/Rola Alghoul/Hatem Mohamed

The post UAE attends nuclear disarmament conference in Astana appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Categories: Africa

Ivory Coast's Seydou Doumbia makes Girona seventh club in 10 years

BBC Africa - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 10:47
Ivory Coast striker Seydou Doumbia signs a three-year deal with Girona, making the Spanish side his seventh club in the last decade.
Categories: Africa

South Africa coach Stuart Baxter warns against complacency

BBC Africa - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 10:02
South Africa coach Stuart Baxter warns his players and fans about underestimating Libya in their Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.
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Theresa May to visit Nigeria as Brexit trade mission continues

BBC Africa - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 03:04
Theresa May also plans to discuss security and people trafficking with the Nigerian president.
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FGM: The Maasai woman on a mission to educate her community

BBC Africa - Wed, 08/29/2018 - 01:39
Agnes Pareiyo is a Kenyan Maasai woman on a mission to educate people on the harm done by female genital mutilation.
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Morocco: Arrests made in Khadija rape and torture case

BBC Africa - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 22:44
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Nigeria's Boko Haram crisis: Father's joy at voice of abducted daughter

BBC Africa - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 16:44
The Christian girl, 15, has reportedly refused to convert to Islam, so Boko Haram refuse to free her.
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Sierra Leone coach explains Bellamy graduate Bundu's absence

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Categories: Africa

South Africa's Siphiwe Tshabalala set to move to Turkey

BBC Africa - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 15:08
South Africa midfielder Siphiwe Tshabalala is set for a move to Turkish club BB Erzurumspor after 12 years at Kaizer Chiefs.
Categories: Africa

Mediterranean Migrant Arrivals Reach 67,122 in 2018; Deaths Reach 1,549

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 13:28

By International Organization for Migration
GENEVA, Aug 28 2018 (IOM)

IOM, the UN Migration Agency, reports that 67,122 migrants and refugees entered Europe by sea in 2018 through 26 August, with 27,994 to Spain, the leading destination this year. This compares with 123,205 (172,362 for the entire year) arrivals across the region through the same period last year, and 272,612 at this point in 2016.

Spain, with 42 per cent of all arrivals through the year, continues to receive seaborne migrants in August at a volume more than twice that of Greece and more than four times that of Italy. Italy’s arrivals through late August are the lowest recorded at this point of a normally busy summer sailing season in almost five years (see chart below).

 

IOM Rome on Monday reported that late Saturday, after a prolonged delay, all the migrants on the Italian Coast Guard ship Diciotti were allowed to disembark into Italy.

The 190 migrants (mostly Eritreans and Somalis) were rescued by the Diciotti on 15 August. However, the ship was permitted only the evacuation of 13 migrants (for medical reasons) before being ordered to wait at anchor off the coast of Lampedusa. That lasted five days, before the Diciotti’s crew received authorization to move their vessel to the port of Catania.

The remaining migrants then remained on board five additional days in the port of Catania, as Italian authorities were unable to authorize their landing – because the Italian authorities insisted they would not authorize disembarkation until there was an agreement to relocate them to other EU Member States.

Following several humanitarian appeals (both IOM and UNHCR asked the Italian Government to allow these migrants to disembark) only the minors were permitted to leave the ship by Thursday evening.

While an agreement was not reached at EU level, all the migrants ultimately were allowed to disembark on Saturday night, when the Italian Minister of Interior announced that 20 migrants will be relocated to Albania and 20 to Ireland, while 100 would be welcomed by the Vatican – within Italian territory, however, on property administered by the Holy See.

According to testimonies gathered by IOM staff from the minors who disembarked Thursday evening, the migrants – all malnourished and exhausted – reported having been arbitrarily detained for up to two years in Libya, where many of them had been beaten and tortured by smugglers and traffickers seeking ransom money from their families in their countries of origin. Moreover, Italian doctors who attended the women on the Diciotti reported that many of them had been raped while in Libya.

“Migrants arriving from Libya are often victims of violence, abuses and torture; their vulnerabilities should be timely and properly identified and addressed,” added Federico Soda, Director of IOM’s Coordinating Office for the Mediterranean and Chief of Mission for Italy and Malta.

IOM’s Missing Migrants Project (MMP) has documented the deaths of 1,549 people on the Mediterranean in 2018. Most recently, in the Western Mediterranean, the Spanish Guardia Civil recovered the body of a young Sub-Saharan man near Alboran Island on 24 August. A merchant vessel had spotted his body, along with the body of another migrant, and had alerted Spanish authorities. A search operation is still underway to find the remains of the other migrant, which have not been located as of 27 August.

On 24 and 25 August, the remains of two individuals were recovered off the coast of Djerba in Tunisia. They are believed to have died in a shipwreck that took place on 20 August off the coast of Djerba. The current death toll from that shipwreck stands at eight dead and one missing. One survivor was rescued by the Tunisian National Guard.

IOM Spain’s Ana Dodevska reported that total arrivals at sea in 2018 have reached 27,994 men, women and children who have been rescued in Western Mediterranean waters through 26 August (see chart below).

She further reported that starting Sunday (26 August) a new, temporary, Motril-based reception centre for foreigners has become operational. This centre can accommodate a total of 250 migrants. A similar reception centre – the first of its type – also became operational at the Port of Crinavis in San Roque on 2 August. Currently, the centre in San Roque remains the largest centre of this type in Spain with a total capacity of 450 persons.

Given the increase in arrivals, the Spanish authorities decided to activate these types of centres in order to speed up the identification process of the newly arrived migrants. The maximum duration of stay in these centres is limited to 72 hours, after which the migrants are transferred to various Humanitarian Assistance Reception Centres. Explained Dodevska: “The newly opened centers are only for the first identification process upon arrival. The Humanitarian ones are financed by the Ministry of Labour, Migrations and Social Security and all of them are managed by NGOs.”

Read more

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Categories: Africa

Effective management of water resources in Arab World key to future growth and stability: WB-FAO

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 13:17

By WAM
STOCKHOLM, Aug 28 2018 (WAM)

Water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region can either be a destabilizing factor or a motive that binds communities together, according to a new joint report from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank, with the difference determined by the policies adopted to cope with the growing challenge.

The report, Water Management in Fragile Systems: Building Resilience to Shocks and Protracted Crises in The Middle East and North Africa warns that instability combined with poor water management can become a vicious cycle that further exacerbates social tensions, while emphasizing that the actions needed to break the cycle can also be essential elements for recovery and consolidating stability.

More than 60% of the region’s population is concentrated in places affected by high or very high surface water stress, compared to a global average of about 35%. If left unchecked, climate-related water scarcity is expected to cause economic losses estimated at 6 to 14% of Gross Domestic Product by 2050, the highest in the world.

Launched today during a special session focused on MENA at the World Water Week conference in Stockholm, Sweden, calls for a shift away from current policies focused on increasing supplies toward long-term management of water resources. Ineffective policies have left both the region’s people and communities exposed to the impacts of water scarcity, growing ever more severe as a result of rising demand and climate change. More than 60% of the region’s population is concentrated in places affected by high or very high surface water stress, compared to a global average of about 35%. If left unchecked, climate-related water scarcity is expected to cause economic losses estimated at 6 to 14% of Gross Domestic Product by 2050, the highest in the world.

“Economic losses mean rising unemployment, compounded by the impact of water scarcity on traditional livelihoods such as agriculture,” said Pasquale Steduto, FAO Regional Programme Coordinator for the Near East and North Africa and co-lead author of the report, “the result can be food insecurity and people forced to migrate, along with growing frustrations with governments unable to guarantee basic services, which risks becoming another driver of the region’s widespread instability. The good news is that actions can be taken to prevent water scarcity and instability from becoming a vicious cycle, by focusing on sustainable, efficient and equitable water resources management and service delivery.”

A balanced approach will be needed that addresses the short-term impacts of water scarcity while investing in longer-term solutions, including the adoption of new technologies, as the basis for sustainable growth. An FAO project in Iraq is supporting resilience to drought by providing cash-for-work to internally displaced people and refugees. A World Bank financed water-treatment plant in Gaza aims to reverse years of neglect due to instability with the reliable supply of safe drinking water and the gradual replenishment of the aquifer with treated water. In Egypt, 10 percent of agricultural water is recycled drainage water, while Morocco plans to install more than 100,000 solar pumps for irrigation by 2020.

“Water scarcity always has both a local dimension, as it directly impacts communities, and a regional one, as water resources cross borders,” said Anders Jagerskog, World Bank Senior Water Resources Management Specialist and report co-lead author. “Addressing water scarcity is an opportunity to empower local communities to develop their own local consensus on strategies for addressing the challenge. At the same time, it is a motivation for strengthening regional cooperation in the face of a common problem.”

More than half of all surface water in the region are transboundary, and all the countries share at least one aquifer. The long history of shared water management in the region demonstrates how water offers an opportunity to bring people together to solve complex challenges related to the allocation and delivery of water. Consultations at the local level coupled with the restoration of water services, can help rebuild the bond of trust between citizens and the government. Regional partnerships to manage shared resources is a step toward greater regional integration. The report emphasizes that while the policies are critical for effective water management, they are also vital contributions to long-term stability.

 

WAM/Tariq alfaham

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Categories: Africa

Crisis alla Turca

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 13:05

Yilmaz Akyüz is former Director, UNCTAD, and former Chief Economist, South Centre, Geneva

By Yilmaz Akyüz
GENEVA, Aug 28 2018 (IPS)

The meltdown of the Turkish currency over a matter of a few days in August 2018 has elicited various reactions and interpretations both at home and abroad, and created widespread concern that it could mark the beginning of a series of crisis in emerging economies exposed to a reassessment of risks by international investors and lenders as well as a rapid normalization of monetary policy in the United States.

Some commentators have attributed the crisis to the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration discontent with the foreign policies pursued by Turkey on many fronts.  The Erdogan government has been too happy to put the blame on “the economic warfare launched by the United States”, rather than years of misguided policies that rendered the economy highly susceptible to political and economic shocks.  It has even enjoyed support from some western governments weary of Trump’s errant foreign policy. Others drew parallels with previous crises in emerging economies, notably the East Asian crisis, placing particular emphasis on the role of external debt in dollars, notably excessive short-term borrowing.

Yilmaz Akyüz

In reality Trump sanctions only acted as a trigger as the economy was sitting on a time bomb.  The currency was already under pressure before the sanctions came into force because of growing awareness of the fragility of the economy.  The lira had lost a quarter of its value against the dollar between January and July 2018.

On the other hand, there are some crucial differences between the underlying vulnerabilities culminating in Turkish and East Asian crises, particularly with respect to the size of current account deficits, the foreign presence in domestic securities, credit and deposit markets, the extent of dollarization and the scope for capital flight by residents.  In all these respects Turkey has been much more vulnerable to currency turmoil than were the East Asian economies in the 1990s.

In a book published by OUP last year, I identified Turkey as the most fragile emerging economy highly vulnerable to external financial crisis after examining, as of end 2013, various sources of potential pressure on its currency and drain on its international reserves in the event of a sharp turnaround in market sentiments and a sudden stop of capital inflows.  It was clear that in such an event, Turkey could not at the same time finance its current account deficit, remain current on its external debt payments in dollars and allow a rapid exit of non-resident portfolio investors from domestic financial markets even in the absence of capital flight by residents.  It was also remarked that capital flight for residents often constituted greater pressure on the currency and international reserves. This was a serious potential threat in Turkey as residents could freely buy and sell dollars, hold forex deposits in local banks and transfer their assets abroad.

The economy has become even more fragile since then.  The current account deficit has remained unchecked as the government sought consumption/construction-led, debt-driven economic expansion which has added very little to productive capacity and export potential.  Persistent deficits have been financed by massive sale of national assets and external borrowing, leading to a rapid deterioration of the net international investment position, from around ‒42 per cent of GDP in 2013 to over ‒54 per cent by 2018.

External debt as a proportion of GDP rose from 41 per cent in 2013 to 63 per cent on the eve of the crisis.  A large proportion of this debt, over 25 per cent of GDP, had a remaining maturity of up to one year. The sum total of short-term debt and current account deficits was more than twice as much as international reserves.  Furthermore, the presence of non-resident portfolio investors in domestic markets became more visible and capital flight by residents remained an even more serious source of pressure on the currency and reserves for political as well as economic reasons.

Turkey, as most other major emerging economies, is highly averse to recourse to the IMF for international liquidity because of its appalling record in interventions in past crises in emerging economies

Sovereign external debt now accounts for some 20 per cent of the total while the rest is equally divided between banks and non-financial corporations.  The latter have been allowed to borrow in dollars both at home and abroad irrespective of their potential to earn foreign currency to service it. Such debt poses greater threat to stability than sovereign debt since, at times of currency turmoil, private debtors attempt to close their open positions by purchasing foreign currency in order to avoid further losses and this in turn accelerates the decline of the currency.

Turkey has thus practised an extreme form of laissez faire in financial affairs and, in effect, become a highly dollarized, dual-currency economy.  Not only liabilities and assets are increasingly denominated in the dollar, but also an important part of property prices, incomes and rents, as well as government contracts in public private partnership projects are fixed in dollars.

In such an economy, a significant loss of confidence can exert intense pressure on the currency irrespective of volume and terms of external debt.  With Trump sanctions the lira started a free fall primarily because of flight of residents, both asset holders and dollar debtors, from the currency, sudden stop of capital inflows and the exit of non-residents from local markets.  Besides, the decline was accentuated by speculators, shorting liras in swap operations in anticipation of a significant drop in the currency. The short-term dollar debt to international creditors has not yet come into play. Still, the outcome has been steep falls in the lira and stocks and a hike in yields on local-currency sovereign debt.  The cost of insuring Turkish debt (Credit Default Swaps – CDS) has shot up, reaching 500 basis points compared to 240bp for Brazil and 315bp for Greece.

In view of stern opposition of the President, the Central Bank avoided a hike in lending rates, but closed its low-cost repo funding, forcing banks to borrow at its more expensive overnight rate ‒ something aptly described as “stealth” tactic to hike borrowing costs.  Further, it has limited currency swap transactions to curb speculation against the lira.

Turkey, as most other major emerging economies, is highly averse to recourse to the IMF for international liquidity because of its appalling record in interventions in past crises in emerging economies.  As anticipated in an earlier IPS article, it thus sought help from its close allies, securing a pledge of $15 billion from Qatar.

These measures, together with 9-days respite from Muslim Eid Al-Adha brought some calm to currency and financial markets.  But all is not over yet. The underlying structural fragilities remain unabated and cannot be remedied overnight because they involve severe balance sheet distortions and imbalances.

Even if the lira remains relatively stable from now on, the sharp decline it has so far undergone ‒ by some 40 per cent since the beginning of the year ‒ could impinge heavily on unhedged debtors, resulting in serious debt servicing difficulties and even defaults.  As Bloomberg reports the CDS curve is inverted ‒ as it was in Greece in the worst days of its debt crisis ‒ not only for sovereign debt but also for the debt of some of the biggest commercial banks; that is, it costs more to insure one-year default than to buy five-year protection.  This suggests that markets are expecting imminent debt-servicing difficulties.

As loans and bonds mature in coming months, the country may find it very difficult to persuade creditors to roll over debt or to replace maturing bonds with new ones even at significantly higher rates.  An important part of syndicated bank loans is due for renewal in September 2018. The dispute with the US involving the state-owned Halkbank over Iranian sanctions can make the renewal process complicated (I thank Hakan Ozyildiz for this point).  Thus, with short-term debt coming into play, the crisis could cease to be a currency crisis but a full-blown debt and banking crisis, leading to a deep and protracted economic contraction.

The crisis could also generate severe contagion to the rest of the world.  Defaults by Turkish debtors could squeeze some European creditors, mainly a number of banks in Spain, Italy and France who have relatively high exposure directly or through subsidiaries in Turkey.  This would also have a serious impact on global risk appetite. A sharp reassessment of risks, together with monetary tightening in the US and Trump follies in trade, could wreak havoc in several emerging economies who have gone out of bounds in the years of easy money since 2008.

When so many policy mistakes are committed and so much debt is accumulated and assets are lost, there is no easy way out.  But, it is always possible to ease the pain. It is not clear if the Turkish government will be able to move from populist rhetoric to effective economic measures to address the root causes of the crisis.  On the other hand, should the crisis spread globally, the international community is unlikely to be able to manage it in an orderly and equitable way, rather than muddling through it as in the past, because it is no more prepared to respond to such crises than it had been in previous episodes.

The post Crisis alla Turca appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Yilmaz Akyüz is former Director, UNCTAD, and former Chief Economist, South Centre, Geneva

The post Crisis alla Turca appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Categories: Africa

DR Congo call-up Arthur Masuaku but drop Cedric Bakambu

BBC Africa - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 11:51
West Ham defender Arthur Masuaku is set for his DR Congo debut after two previous call-ups but China-based Cedric Bakambu is dropped.
Categories: Africa

A Journey From a Nepali Village to the Upper Ranks of UNICEF

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Tue, 08/28/2018 - 11:25

Former Deputy Executive Director of UNICEF and UN Assistant Secretary-General Kul Gautam accepts Harris Wofford Global Citizenship Award from National Peace Corps Association President Glenn Blumhorst on August 24 in the US.

By Sir Arthur Richard Jolly
BRIGHTON, UK, Aug 28 2018 (IPS)

Kul Gautam’s memoir is everything which one hopes for from a good biography. There are difficulties all along the way, obstacles and challenges overcome and a vision pursued with extraordinary persistence in spite of everything.  

There are successes and triumphs, many of real significance. And there are lessons to be learned, albeit presented with self-deprecating gentleness and modesty.

Kul Gautam’s story has all of this and much more, set in a journey from a poor village in one of the world’s poorest countries to operating at the highest level, negotiating with government leaders at World Summits of the United Nations.

Collaborating with Kul in my role as Deputy Executive Director of UNICEF, from 1982-1995, was not only rewarding professionally, it cemented a friendship that has endured to the present.

Kul’s early life and teenage years are eye-opening for those of us born in middle-class comfort in the richer parts of the world. Kul had to break free from the constraints of his Nepali village in order to train as a priest – which itself involved travelling miles away to India, the first five days on foot.

There, seemingly established in Sanskrit and religious studies, his intellectual potential for more serious education was spotted and he left for secondary school back in Nepal. With good fortune, the teachers at his progressive public school helped him build an impressive academic record and he was offered a full scholarship at Dartmouth College in the United States.

But when all now seemed straightforward, bureaucracy intervened and he had to spend nearly two further teenage years trying to persuade the authorities in Nepal to give him a passport and let him accept the scholarship. These efforts alone are a study in how to overcome the rules of well entrenched bureaucracy, requiring skill as well as extraordinary persistence.

After graduation, Kul has had an extraordinary and fulfilling international career – in Latin America, Africa and Asia – working in UNICEF for children at various levels of leadership. Starting near the bottom, he ended up as an Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Initially, Kul found himself in Cambodia, conflict ridden and with a government about to collapse, which it soon did, with Kul evacuated in a diplomatic plane full of embassy staff. But while in Cambodia, Kul’s youthful idealism and openness to new thinking never lost him, though perhaps one must add for better or worse.

It was there, newly wed, that Kul remarked to his wife Binata, that “he would not mind being kidnapped by the Khmer Rouge”, as this would give him the chance to learn more about them and their thinking. Scarce wonder that Binata, living outside Nepal for the first time, was occasionally scared by her eccentric husband.

Kul also shows how the most successful interventions for children – and development – are often achieved by seizing new opportunities, breaking new ground, rather than by cautious step by step progression along previously negotiated tracks.

Those who know little of the practical operations of the UN will find Kul’s descriptions of UNICEF in action to be fascinating and revealing – in Indonesia, Laos, Haiti and afterwards overseeing UNICEF’s work in Latin America as a whole.  Those with knowledge of UNICEF and other international agencies will be pleased to recognize the names of many colleagues they have known.

Others will enjoy Kul’s insightful, often amusing stories of his encounters with celebrities and leaders of all stripes and foibles.  Important lessons emerge from all these accounts, especially those showing how quiet diplomacy and empathy with the situation and culture of the nationals with whom UNICEF worked could often ease initial suspicions and find solutions even with difficult bureaucrats.

Kul also shows how the most successful interventions for children – and development – are often achieved by seizing new opportunities, breaking new ground, rather than by cautious step by step progression along previously negotiated tracks.

Nor are they usually the result of individuals acting alone, but almost always as part of a group or team working together, often acting within an individual country but backed up by regional and international action and support.

The pioneering features emerge most dramatically when Kul is based in UNICEF headquarters New York, where – like me – he worked hand in hand with Jim Grant, UNICEF’s visionary Executive Director and legendary leader.

Many readers will be aware of the MDGs and the SDGs, the Millennium Development Goals and their current sequel, the Sustainable Development Goals, agreed at summit meetings in the United Nations in 2000 and 2015.

Kul documents from first-hand involvement the little-known origins of these global goals, in the late 1980s when UNICEF organized the 1990 World Summit for Children, the first truly global summit ever convened on any topic, as Kul makes clear. Kul’s responsibilities included drafting the document setting out these goals for the 1990s and helping to gain their acceptance, itself a story with many twists and turns.

The summit set the priorities for much action for children worldwide and especially for UNICEF over the 1990s which, in turn, laid the foundations for the broader goals of the new millennium. Kul was then made responsible for drafting the key documents for assessing progress made towards these children’s goals and for drafting and negotiating new goals linked to the MDGs.

On all this, Kul provides detailed descriptions of the skilful efforts needed to bridge gaps and produce an agreed document. He lays bare a process often hidden from the public at large, even members of NGOs and others participating on the edges of such negotiations.

Careful readers will not only understand better the often-tortuous interactions involved, but how Kul was able to preserve most if not quite all of Jim Grant’s original vision for children in the final set of commitments. Gaining global consensus around such an ambitious and far-ranging agenda for change was an unprecedented achievement.

The most influential parts of Kul’s long and distinguished career have been of international service, working in UNICEF, but later in other organizations of the United Nations and in non-government organizations like RESULTS and OXFAM. Kul’s clear and vivid prose illuminates in fascinating detail what happened following his departure from UNICEF, often bringing out further lessons.

This remarkable story of Kul Gautam’s journey from village to the heights of the international action for children and humanity is one of extraordinary success, achieved through talent, intelligence, hard work, persistence, comradeship and much help along the way.

In the early years, support from family, friends and teachers made all the difference; in the later years, working in UNICEF with strong colleagues, great support and outstanding leadership brought out the best in him. It is a story of endless fascination and inspiration.

Kul’s story continues to inspire on every page, with vision pursued, challenges faced and opportunities grasped, all with insight and skill to make positive improvements in the lives of children. It is a story told with quiet modesty and self-deprecation, traits that are all too rare in leaders and that I have always appreciated in Kul.

If so much vision and energy can emerge in one person from one village in Nepal, it leaves one wondering what might be possible if the vison, talent and energy hidden in many other corners of the world could be released.

From 1982-2000, Sir Richard Jolly was Assistant Secretary-General of the UN, serving first as Deputy Executive Director of UNICEF and later as Coordinator of UNDP’s Human Development Report. He was also co-director of the UN Intellectual History Project.

 

The post A Journey From a Nepali Village to the Upper Ranks of UNICEF appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Sir Arthur Richard Jolly, an eminent development economist, is Honorary Professor and former Director of the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK.

The post A Journey From a Nepali Village to the Upper Ranks of UNICEF appeared first on Inter Press Service.

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The post 14-Point Recommendation of UN Fact-Finding Mission appeared first on Inter Press Service.

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