Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE

By Farhana Haque Rahman
NEW YORK, Nov 1 2024 (IPS)

Standing high on the vertiginous edge of the future and looking down into a volcanic seething of approaching doom, it is a totally understandable desire to want to close your eyes, walk away and turn on the sports channel. If you have one.

Farhana Haque Rahman

Put the air-con on too. Last year was the hottest on human record, and the planetary average for 2024 is on course to rise even further.

Floods, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and storms are already displacing millions of people across the world, and that is with average temperatures around 1.3 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels. Scientists estimate we are on a path to at least double that increase by 2100 although the Paris Agreement ‘goal’ is to stick within 1.5 degrees. The world’s annual emissions of greenhouse gases, CO2 and methane, have not even peaked yet.

But aren’t our global leaders and their vast complex of enablers – the financiers, corporates etc – holding their year-end climate crisis huddle to tackle all this? Yes, Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 in November means for the second year running a petro-state will be in charge of proceedings. Did you mention something about feeling alienated?

COP28 agreed vaguely last year on the need for the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels, the source of the great majority of emissions. COP29 has the main task of hardening up commitments, and agreeing on how richer countries will provide the trillions of dollars needed to help the “global south” tackle the crisis.

This new “global climate finance goal” is to come into play after 2025 and is supposed to replace the annual $100bn target set years ago that the developed world is already behind on.

Pre-COP discussions held in Bonn recently were a fraught affair. Much of the western world is already grappling with its own record high debt levels. Arguments broke out over how to define “climate finance”. The definition of “up-to-date” was also on the agenda.

Geo-politics are kicking in too. How was it, European delegates asked, that China with its space exploration program and massively expensive military development (as well as being the world’s largest emitter) is still able to cling to its ‘developing’ country status that allows it to benefit from the UN pot rather than contribute? Why don’t the fantastically rich Gulf states also contribute?

Quibbling over (admittedly meaningful) definitions does seem the contemporary equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns, a metaphor recalled by UN Secretary-General António Guterres on the eve of COP29.

“We’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he said, commenting on research released by the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) warning that the world is on course for a “catastrophic” temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels. The world’s ability to remain within the target of 1.5C of global warming “will be gone within a few years” without rapid action, the UNEP stated.

“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” said Guterres. Is anyone watching?

The numbers are extreme but exist in plain sight – the world needs collectively to slash emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels, to keep within the 1.5C threshold, according to UNEP. Instead this year they will hit a new high, although the International Energy Agency’s latest annual review does predict an “imminent” peaking, possibly next year.

Although it can feel we are running hard just to slip even further down that burning precipice, the tectonic plates of energy trends are shifting however. The International Energy Agency pronounces encouragingly we are entering the ‘age of electricity’, driven by a surge in solar power.

Electricity generated from solar power alone is seen quadrupling between 2023 and 2030. Solar may overtake nuclear, hydro and wind by 2026, overtake gas in 2031 and then coal by 2033. Clean electricity is seen pushing coal power down by a third by 2035.

The direction of travel is clear, but it has come far too late and the pace is still far too slow. The good news is that plummeting costs of solar power – in part thanks to China – are enabling the global south to move much more rapidly towards clean energy and shun the siren calls of the corporate dinosaurs of fossil fuels.

But even before COP29 participants settle into their Baku conference seats on November 11, the knife-edge month will begin with that elephant in the ante-chamber – the US presidential election.

A victory for Donald Trump could lead (again) to US withdrawal from international climate action. Analysis by Carbon Brief researchers shows a return of Trump could lead to an additional four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s existing plans. That’s equal to combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.

That sense of deep malaise and alienation many of us feel about our planet’s existential crisis, exacerbated by horrendous conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, seems to be shared by many US voters about their lot in life. Polls show a record share of three quarters of registered voters believe the next generation won’t be better off.

How can we change the messaging? Trump has channelled deep-seated anger and frustration towards his own blinkered and narcissistic ends. The purveyors of ‘hope’ have perpetuated decades of time lost. Can we accept – defiantly not passively – that this is going to be an epic struggle of many long hard battles? They may already be lost but we can recognize the glory in not giving up.

Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: United Nations
 
The UN, which was established to foster global peace and stability, has now become a paralyzed institution that inadvertently contributes to raging conflicts because it is constrained by an archaic structure that no longer meets the dramatically changed world order.

By Alon Ben-Meir
NEW YORK, Nov 1 2024 (IPS)

The United Nations, established in 1945 at the end of World War II, has sadly virtually outlived its usefulness as it commemorated its 79th anniversary due to its failure to reform itself and adjust to the new world order following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which is significantly different from when the UN was established.

The UN’s mission, which is to promote peace and stability, has failed time and again, as many of the current violent conflicts, especially the Ukraine War and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, glaringly demonstrate.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy aptly put it when he asked during his address to the Security Council in 2022: “Where is the security that the Security Council needs to guarantee? … Where is the peace?”

Over the years, scholars and think tanks have offered reformist ideas to make the UN more adaptable and responsive to the changing world order. They have failed primarily because of how the UN was structured and the opposition of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – the US, Russia, China, Britain, and France – to any significant reforms that could diminish their power.

Offering any comprehensive reforms to the UN is certainly beyond the scope of this column. However, there are some limited reforms that the UNSC can take, without a fundamental change in its structure, to enhance its effectiveness in maintaining global peace.

Before that, it is essential to point out some of the UN’s shortcomings to put into context the limited reforms that can be taken.

The UN Security Council’s structure
The UN Security Council’s structure, particularly the veto power held by its five permanent members, often leads to inaction. This power allows any one of these countries to block resolutions, even if there is broad international support. This has resulted in deadlocks on critical issues such as the Syrian Civil War, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The killings of civilians and the destruction of cities and towns, particularly by Israel and Russia, are devastating and continue unabated even through the UN and its humanitarian agencies. The International Criminal Court and UN human rights experts have repeatedly called on the Security Council to act. In these cases, the US and Russia’s adversarial relations prevented them from reaching solutions to mitigate these conflicts.

The composition of the Security Council does not reflect current global dynamics, leading to questions about its legitimacy and effectiveness. Calls for reform have been persistent but largely unaddressed due to the reluctance of current permanent members to alter a system that benefits them.

Only one-quarter of the global population is represented by the Security Council. Blocks of countries, including Muslim states, African nations, South American countries, and India, with over 1.3 billion people, are not represented in the SC.

Peacekeeping Constraints
The UN peacekeeping missions are often criticized for their limited mandates and resources. Peacekeepers are usually deployed in areas where there is no peace to keep, like Cyprus, Kosovo, and Western Sahara. They are generally not adequately equipped or have the authority to engage in violent operations.

This limitation is starkly evident in regions plagued by terrorism and violent extremism, including the Sahel region in Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic, where peacekeepers struggle to stabilize situations without adequate support from powerful nations. In addition, there is often a disconnect between UN mandates and local realities, which complicates peacekeeping efforts.

Peacekeepers may not be adequately trained or prepared to handle complex regional dynamics, leading to ineffective interventions.

Lack of Enforcement Mechanisms
The UN often lacks effective enforcement mechanisms for its resolutions. While the Security Council can theoretically impose sanctions or authorize military action, veto power and political considerations frequently prevent decisive actions. This allows countries that are committing crimes against humanity or engaged in war crimes to escape any punitive measures with impunity, even when imposed by the UNSC.

National Interests Over Global Peace
The interests of powerful member states often precede collective global security objectives. The major arms-exporting nations are also permanent members of the Security Council, creating conflicts of interest that undermine efforts to resolve disputes where these nations have strategic interests.

This is highly evident in the Israel-Hamas war and Russia-Ukraine wars, where the US, in particular, is providing massive military support. In this context, geopolitical rivalries among major powers hinder consensus on critical issues. For example, China and Russia often align against Western countries on various international matters, leading to a stalemate in effectively addressing conflicts.

Bureaucratic Inefficiencies
Slow bureaucratic processes and mismanagement frequently hamper the UN’s operations. These inefficiencies can delay critical humanitarian aid and other interventions necessary for maintaining peace. Addressing these issues would require substantial reforms, particularly within the Security Council, alongside a commitment from member states to prioritize global peace over national interests.

Reforms that Can Enhance Effectiveness of UN Operations
Given, however, the insurmountable difficulties in undertaking comprehensive reforms of the UN, it is still possible to reform the UNSC to enhance its effectiveness in maintaining global peace, which involves addressing several key issues. Here are several doable reforms that could rectify some of the problems.

Reform proposals include limiting the use of vetoes, particularly in cases involving mass atrocities or violations of international law. This could include requiring a supermajority for vetoes to be effective or mandating discussions in the General Assembly following a veto.

Regional Representation
Ensuring geographic balance and representation of diverse cultures and civilizations is crucial. This could involve creating regional seats that rotate among countries within a region, thereby enhancing representation without significantly increasing the number of permanent seats.

Strengthening the Role of the General Assembly
Enhancing the General Assembly’s role in peace and security matters could counterbalance Security Council paralysis. Initiatives like the “Uniting for Peace” resolution allow the General Assembly to act when the Security Council is deadlocked. Given the differing national interests and geopolitical considerations, consensus-building can still be achieved without necessarily compromising national interests.

Non-amendment Reforms
Reinterpreting existing UN Charter provisions may allow for more flexible responses to global crises without formal amendments. Such reforms could empower other UN bodies to act when the Security Council cannot.

Balancing Power Dynamics
Expanding membership while managing veto power requires careful negotiation to ensure new members do not exacerbate gridlock. There is also concern about maintaining the council’s effectiveness with an increased number of members.

Expansion of Membership
Increasing permanent and non-permanent members is a widely discussed reform. This expansion could include adding new permanent members without veto power, such as countries from underrepresented regions like Africa, Latin America, and Asia. The G4 nations (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan) and African countries have been prominent candidates for permanent seats.

Although there is broad agreement on the need to reform the UNSC, achieving that involves piloting multifaceted geopolitical landscapes and balancing various national interests. That said, incremental changes, especially those not requiring formal amendments to the UN charter, may offer a feasible path forward.

If the UNSC does not adopt some of these reforms, the UN will virtually outlive its usefulness, especially in the area of conflict resolution, where the daily horrific death and destruction around the world attests to its dismal failures.

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University (NYU). He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 1 2024 (IPS)

The United Nations continues to be virtually paralyzed – and remains politically impotent amidst two raging conflicts—as Russia and Israel keep defying the world body.

The killings of civilians and the destruction of cities, particularly by Israel, are devastating and continue despite repeated warnings from the UN, its humanitarian agencies, the International Criminal Court (ICC), UN human right experts and the Security Council.

Which prompts the question: has the UN outlived its usefulness –even as it commemorated its 79th anniversary on the annual UN Day on October 24?

The United Nations, which has failed to help resolve some of the world’s ongoing and longstanding civil wars and military conflicts—including Palestine, Afghanistan, Yemen, Western Sahara, Myanmar, Syria, and most recently, Ukraine—was challenged by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his address to the Security Council last April.

And he rightly asked: “Where is the peace that the United Nations was created to guarantee? And where is the security that the Security Council was supposed to guarantee?

The repeated US calls for a ceasefire by Israel have fallen on deaf ears—even as violations of the UN Charter continue with accusations of war crimes and genocide in Gaza since October 7 last year.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Asian diplomat, was right on target, when he told IPS the countries that violate the UN charter and commit war crimes are “rogue nations” and should be driven out of the world body.

But that will never happen with a Security Council empowered with vetoes.

Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director, Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) told IPS the UN Security Council has served as the principal obstacle to global peace and security, hindering rather than helping efforts to end conflicts around the world.

Both the United States and Russia have used their veto power to ensure the wars they support, whether Russia’s conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, or the US supported wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, continue.

Without ending the veto power of these two global powers that are fomenting the worst conflicts in the world, the UN will continue to be a toothless and discredited institution, Whitson declared.

Dr Ramzy Baroud, a journalist and Editor of The Palestine Chronicle, told IPS the question of whether the United Nations has outlived its usefulness or not, depends on how we choose to comprehend the initial formation and the original purpose of the organization.

“If we believe, and many rightly do, that the UN was formed to protect the interests of those who emerged victorious following the devastation of WWII, then, largely it has succeeded in its mission.”

Indeed, the UN, especially its executive branch, the Security Council, has mainly reflected the balances of global power, which, until recently, was mostly titled in favor of the US and its western allies, he said.

Though this is somewhat changing, he pointed out, the US continues to prove that it is still capable of being a major obstacle before allowing the institution to serve even a nominal role in imposing international and humanitarian laws on guilty parties, the likes of Israel.

“However, if we subscribe to the misconception that the UN existed as a global guarantor of peace through the generation and implementation of international laws, then there is no question it has miserably failed”, he declared.

Responding to a question at a press briefing early October, UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said: “Well, when people talk about the failures of the UN, my question back to you is, which UN are you speaking about?”

“Are you speaking about the inability of the Security Council to come together on critical issues? Are you speaking about Member States not respecting and not implementing resolutions? Are you speaking about Member States not upholding the rulings of the International Court of Justice, which every Member State has signed up to?”

And are you speaking about the Secretary-General feeling that you think he’s not doing enough or his humanitarians are not doing enough? So, I think those types of questions are extremely valid, but I think one has to examine which part of the organization you’re speaking about,” said Dujarric.

On the margins of the BRICS Summit in Kazan on October 24, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation and reiterated his position that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was “in violation of the United Nations Charter and international law.”

But Russia’s response went unannounced—even as violations continue.

Responding to a question at a press conference in Colombia on October 29, Guterres said: “We need peace among ourselves. That is the reason I’ve been asking, in line with the Charter, in line with international law, and in line with the General Assembly resolutions.”

“That is why we have been asking for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, releasing all hostages and massive humanitarian aid to Gaza. That is why we have been asking for peace in Lebanon and peace that respects Lebanese sovereignty and Lebanese territorial integrity and paves the way for a political solution”.

“That is why we have been asking for peace in Sudan, where an enormous tragedy exists,” Guterres said.

Perhaps these are appeals that will continue to remain unanswered.

Elaborating further, Dr Baroud told IPS what is particularly exasperating is that despite its obvious failures, the UN continues to carry on as if it served any other purpose aside from mirroring the existing imbalances of power around the world, and as a publicity platform for the US, Israel and others, who violate international law with complete impunity.

The UN was formed following the atrocities of WWII. Now, it stands completely useless in its inability to stop similar atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. There is no moral, let alone rational justification of why the UN in its current form should continue to exist, he argued.

Now that the Global South is finally rising with its own political, economic and legal initiatives, it is time for these new bodies to either offer a complete alternative to the UN or push for serious and irreversible reforms at the currently ineffectual organization, said Dr. Baroud, a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). www.ramzybaroud.net

In an oped piece for IPS Dr. Alon Ben-Meir, a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University (NYU), pointed out that the UN Security Council’s structure, particularly the veto power held by its five permanent members, often leads to inaction.

This power allows any one of these countries to block resolutions, even if there is broad international support. This has resulted in deadlocks on critical issues such as the Syrian Civil War, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he said.

“The killings of civilians and the destruction of cities and towns, particularly by Israel and Russia, are devastating and continue unabated even through the UN and its humanitarian agencies.”

The International Criminal Court and UN human rights experts have repeatedly called on the Security Council to act. In these cases, the US and Russia’s adversarial relations prevented them from reaching solutions to mitigate these conflicts, he pointed out.

Although there is broad agreement on the need to reform the UNSC, achieving that involves piloting multifaceted geopolitical landscapes and balancing various national interests.

That said, incremental changes, especially those not requiring formal amendments to the UN charter, may offer a feasible path forward, said Dr Ben-Meir, who has taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

“If the UNSC does not adopt some of these reforms, the UN will virtually outlive its usefulness, especially in the area of conflict resolution, where the daily horrific death and destruction around the world attests to its dismal failures,” he declared.

Meanwhile, the UN’s declining role in geo-politics, however, has been compensated for, by its increasingly robust performance as a massive humanitarian relief organization.

These efforts are led by multiple UN agencies such as the World Food Program (WFP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN children’s fund UNICEF, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) , the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), among others.

These agencies, which have saved millions of lives, continue to provide food, medical care and shelter, to those trapped in war-ravaged countries, mostly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, while following closely in the footsteps of international relief organizations, including Doctors Without Borders, Save the Children, international Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), CARE International, Action Against Hunger, World Vision and Relief Without Borders, among others.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Global education is facing a critical moment amid severe setbacks. Millions of children are out of school, learning levels are falling, and millions are leaving school without the skills they need. New out-of-school figures reveal that global progress in reducing the number of out-of-school children has been just 1 percent since 2015, leaving 251 million […]

The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is the largest aid agency in the Gaza Strip where it provides emergency and other assistance to vulnerable Palestinians. Credit: UNRWA

By James E. Jennings
ATLANTA, USA, Oct 31 2024 (IPS)

The most solemn and terrifying words ever uttered are those inscribed over the gateway to Hell in Dante’s Inferno: “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here!” Hope is essential for human survival both as individuals and as nations.

Surveying the history of the seemingly endless series of wars and counter-wars between Israel and its foes in Gaza and Lebanon from 1948 until now—a period of 76 years—it seems that all hope for peace has been lost. Palestinians, Lebanese, the people of Gaza—and yes, the Israelis too—are all residents of this inferno, the endless Hell of war.

If you pay close attention to the weak, mealy-mouthed utterances of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken—the emissary of the equally weak President Joe Biden—you’ll understand that the Middle East region and therefore the world is rapidly approaching the Ninth Circle of Hell.

Both of them utter meaningless phrases that reveal their lack of understanding at best, or at worst their vicious, inhumane complicity.

Now, the latest, and possibly most obscene, third act in this modern Greek tragedy was played out October 28 in Israel’s Knesset. Nearly 100 of the 120 members of that wise and honorable body voted to cut the lifeline for millions of Palestinians who depend on the UN’s Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for health care and education.

Credit: UNRWA

Besides irrationally imposing new cruelties—rubbing salt in the wounds of an entire population of innocent people—the Knesset’s decision constitutes cultural genocide, an essential factor underlying the supreme international crime of Genocide as defined by the United Nations.

UNRWA’s registry constitutes the primary link millions of 1948 War refugees and their descendants have to their lost properties. Destroying that link erases an entire people from history. It obliterates Israel’s “Crime of the Century,” which is the theft of the nation of Palestine.

Is this the hand of friendship, the “Light to the Nations” Israel’s founder Ben Gurion promised in 1948? Review the numbers: there are still 1.2 million registered Palestinian refugees dependent on food aid in 68 camps in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the West Bank, and Gaza. UNRWA services in Gaza alone include 140 health care centers and 700 schools educating 300,000 students.

Is there hope in this darkened scenario? Actually, there is. Sun Tzu’s long-ago Chinese classic, The Art of War, records the following sardonic, understated observation: “There is no example of a long war benefitting anybody.”

Which means that at some point people will have to come to their senses, or else generations will pass away before their descendants, with new issues to deal with, will wonder what the fuss was all about.

But that’s in the future—perhaps the distant future. What about now? Is there any hope? Surprisingly, yes, there is.

In an interview on al-Jazeera television on October 25, 2024, after more than a year of the most devastating and genocidal war on Palestine’s civilian population, leading Palestinian politician and spokesman Mustafa Barghouti, expressed optimism.

He said that the single positive development during the longest and most destructive war against Palestine in its history is the continuing determination of the Palestinian people to remain on their land and to resist efforts to expunge their national identity, as is their right.

In Arabic it is called Sumud, “steadfastness,” loosely translated as “Staying power.” Hope survives. Where there’s life, there’s hope.

James E. Jennings is President of Conscience International, an international aid organization that has responded to wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Gaza since 1991.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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A child in the Jenin refugee camp looking at the destroyed shelters following recent militarized operations. Credit: UNICEF/Ahed Izhiman

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 31 2024 (IPS)

On October 28, the Israeli parliament voted to ban activity from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) in Israel. Two bills were passed by the Knesset, Israel’s house of representatives, one that barred all UNRWA efforts, and another that prevents interactions between Israeli authorities and UNRWA personnel. The implications of this amendment are expected to exacerbate dire conditions for millions of Palestinians who were already in the midst of a severe humanitarian crisis.

This comes after nearly eight decades of work done by UNRWA in Palestine to provide refugees with essential humanitarian aid. The absence of UNRWA activity in Palestine is expected to further restrict humanitarian access in the nation, leaving millions to fend for themselves amid the ongoing hostilities and the upcoming harsh winter. UNRWA has actively supported Palestinians since 1948, distributing essential resources including food, water and shelter, and providing critical public services such as healthcare and education.

UNRWA and the United Nations (UN) have responded to the bills and denounced Israel’s actions towards the people of Palestine. “The implementation of the laws could have devastating consequences for Palestine refugees in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, which is unacceptable,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini issued a statement to X (formerly known as Twitter) saying, “These bills will only deepen the suffering of Palestinians, especially in Gaza where people have been going through more than a year of sheer hell. It ⁠will deprive over 650,000 girls & boys there from education, putting at risk an entire generation of children. These bills increase the suffering of the Palestinians and are nothing less than collective punishment.”

Israeli authorities doubled down on their stance on the bills, accusing UNRWA of promoting terrorism and antisemitism. Yulia Malinovsky, a member of the Knesset, told reporters that UNRWA does not deserve legal immunity from Israeli retaliation, saying that aid personnel should no longer receive “five star treatment” in Israel. Malinovsky also opined that UNRWA colluded with Hamas.

“UNRWA chose to make itself an inseparable component of Hamas’ mechanism – and now is the time to detach ourselves entirely from it,” said former Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin issued a joint statement to Israeli authorities, warning that the newly passed bills “would devastate the humanitarian response in Gaza at this critical moment and deny essential educational and social services to tens of thousands of Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem”.

This is particularly concerning to humanitarian organizations as almost all of Gaza’s population depends on aid to survive. At this moment, humanitarian aid is more crucial than ever as Gaza grapples with the high risk of a polio outbreak, the destruction of critical infrastructure, and dwindling resources.

“Israel has bombed Palestinians to death, maimed them, starved them, and is now ridding them of their biggest lifeline of aid. Piece by piece, Israel is systematically dismantling Gaza as a land that is autonomous and livable for Palestinians. The banning of UNRWA today is condemnable and another step in this crime,” says Sally Abi Khalil, Oxfam Regional Director in the Middle East and North Africa.

UNRWA and its partners, including the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), began the second round of polio vaccinations in Gaza on October 14. Although initially successful, continued bombardments halted the campaign from reaching northern Gaza, home to approximately 120,000 unimmunized children. The deadline to provide these children with the crucial second dose falls in mid-November, after which, chances of full immunization significantly decline.

“This is a risk not just to the 120,000 children who remain in northern Gaza, children aged ten, and below that is, but also to children in the larger region. And that’s why we are so incredibly worried and pressing for this second round to happen by the beginning of November,” says Rosalia Bollen, UNICEF’s Communication Specialist in Gaza.

Bollen adds that the polio outbreak, continued hostilities, and the lack of humanitarian aid have taken a severe toll on children’s education, describing Gaza’s children as “a lost generation”. UNRWA hosts a variety of social services in Palestine, including over 183 schools in Gaza. These schools are set to shut down due to the two newly passed bills.

As the bills were being passed by the Knesset, Israel continued its aerial campaign in Gaza. On the morning of October 29, Israel launched another airstrike on a displacement shelter in Beit Lahiya, causing at least 109 civilian casualties and leveling a five-storey residential building. Gaza’s health ministry has reported that a series of bombardments in densely populated districts in northern Gaza has resulted in over 800 deaths in a three week aerial campaign.

“The bombing in north Gaza is non-stop. The bombs continue to fall, the Israeli military is separating families and detaining many people and people fleeing have been reportedly shot at. The Israeli Government’s policies and practices in northern Gaza risk emptying the area of all Palestinians. We are facing what could amount to atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity,” said UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk.

Additionally, intense bombardments have halted humanitarian aid, essentially cutting off the flow of supplies for millions of Palestinians. Resources have been almost completely depleted, with humanitarian organizations fearing the onset of famine in Gaza. A statement by the World Food Programme (WFP) states, “Gaza’s food systems have largely collapsed due to the destruction of factories, croplands and shops. Markets are nearly empty as most commercial channels are no longer functioning.”

In early October of this year, a report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warned that approximately 96 percent of Gaza will face severe food insecurity, with almost half a million people facing “catastrophic levels” of hunger. Famine has been described as imminent.

Without UNRWA’s activity in the occupied Palestinian territories, conditions are expected to severely deteriorate as the harsh winter approaches. “After being forced to flee time and time again, hundreds of thousands of families in Gaza are living in inadequate tents and makeshift shelters. When winter comes, these shelters will not keep them safe from strong winds, heavy rains and cold temperatures,” said Alison Ely, Shelter Cluster coordinator in Gaza.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Spokesman for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric confirmed that the UN will continue to do whatever they can to assist the Palestinian people. Dujarric also noted that due to UNRWA’s removal from Palestine, Israel has an obligation to meet the needs of the millions of people residing in their sovereignties. “Israel would have to fill the vacuum and meet those needs, or be in violation of international law,” explained Dujarric.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement declaring Israel’s intentions to provide humanitarian aid for affected communities in Gaza. “In the 90 days before this legislation goes into effect — and after — we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure that Israel continues to facilitate humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza in a manner that does not threaten Israel’s security,” says Netanyahu.

Humanitarian organizations and U.S. officials have expressed their concerns that Israel will not be able to effectively facilitate the duties that were conducted by UNRWA. Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the United States Department of State, said. “There’s nobody that can replace them (UNRWA) right now in the middle of the crisis”.

Guterres echoed these sentiments in a post shared to X. “There is no alternative to UNRWA.”

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Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General at COP16, sent a message that peace with nature was only possible if there was a political solution to conflicts. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

By Stella Paul
CALI, Columbia, Oct 31 2024 (IPS)

José Aruna, a forest defender from Sud Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), remembers the night in September 2019 when a group of heavily armed men barged into his house in the middle of the night. Aruna and his wife—6 months pregnant at the time—were in bed when he heard sounds of boots on the front yard and quickly knew something was about to happen.

He silently slipped out of the bed and hid behind a tree at the back of the house.

“My wife was woken up by the armed men who asked her where I was and when she said she didn’t know, they demanded money from her. When she said she had no money on her, they hit her in the face. Then they took turns to rape her. The next day I took them to Rwanda,” Aruna recalls the horror.

Since then, Aruna’s family has lived in Rwanda, but he has continued to work in the DRC, often in hiding and on the run but never giving up the cause. He leads an environmental group called Congo Basin Conservation Society in the vicinity of Kahuzi Bieza National Park, which is, besides gorillas and chimpanzees, also famous for redwood and vast deposits of charcoal.  The redwood is felled by loggers primarily to smuggle to China, while the charcoal is sold both in domestic and international markets. As CBCS tries to stop the smugglers, their members are regularly attacked, kidnapped for ransom and killed.

José Aruna, a forest defender from Sud Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), speaks about the perils of environmental activism and it’s profound impact on him and his family. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

Surviving in the Dangerous Forests

According to Global Witness 2023 report Missing Voices, 74 environmental defenders have been killed in the DRC in the past decade—mostly in the Congo Basin—a hotspot of illegal mining and illegal logging.

DRC also features in the World Peace Index as the 6th most dangerous country in the world. “In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, rebels and warmed forces wander certain areas at will. Crimes, including murder, rape, kidnapping, carjackings, burglaries, muggings, and highway robberies, are fairly common,” says the report.To make peace with nature, we must first make peace with ourselves because wars are won at the most devastating impacts of biodiversity, climate and pollution.—Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General

Jose says that the local men and women who are trying to preserve biodiversity in their neighborhoods face the greatest risk.

“We are crushed by dual evils. On one side, there are illegal, armed militias that target us. On the other hand, we face threats from the corrupt army and government officials who are directly linked to those running illegal businesses. We have nowhere to go.”

The total area of the Congo River Basin is 3.7 million square kilometers—double the size of its neighboring country, Uganda. It is also known as the lungs of Africa. There are dozens of armed insurgents that operate in the area, but it is the Owazalendo militia partnering with Congo military and Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu rebel group linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, that are the most powerful. Both Owazalendo and FDLR are also giving direct support to illegal miners and loggers both inside the protected forests and outside of it, Aruna informs.

“We are mostly in hiding. If we are caught by the rebels, we will be asked to pay anything between five hundred and fifty thousand American dollars to be free. Can you imagine that kind of money?” he asks.

Aruna is at COP16, where country representatives are currently finalizing the best ways to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The GBF’s Target 22 specifically mentions that countries must “ensure the full protection of environmental human rights defenders,” and Aruna thinks that it is time for the parties to accept that environmental defenders are greatly vulnerable and lack both government support and resources required to protect themselves.

Sunita Kwangta Moomoo, an environmental activist from Kayin State in Myanmar. Credit: Stella Paul/IPS

Arms for Arms: Case of Myanmar

Sunita Kwangta Moomoo is a Karen—an indigenous community from the Kayin state of Myanmar—a country under military rule and also in the middle of a civil war.

But the Karen community, which has been demanding a separate homeland for Karen people, has been in an armed conflict that precedes the military coup and fall of democracy in February 2021. The fights have, however, intensified manifold since various pro-democracy groups started an armed resistance against the army all across the country, including Loikaw, the heartland of Kayin State, where the Karen National Liberation Army is leading the fight.

Moomoo, who now lives in neighboring country Thailand, has family members who are still in Myanmar.

“The situation is tough. Every now and then, we have air strikes by the military directed at the villages. The only way to escape these airstrikes is to hide in a mountain cave. Sometimes the military also conducts raids in villages, and they always follow a “scorched earth” policy, so they burn down everything—homes, animals, vegetation—along their way.”

This has not just destroyed human lives but also the culture of the Karens since their belief system, including social and religious rituals, is integrally tied to land and forests. “When we sow crops, when we harvest, when we celebrate a birth, we perform rituals on the land that we own or live on. Now, those are gone.

The concept of environmental defense, obviously, doesn’t exist anymore either since survival has become the only goal of the Karens. And in the desperate struggle for survival, even civilians have armed themselves. “Everyone is a soldier now,” says Moomoo.

“Environmental defenders arming themselves is bound to happen if the state is not able to protect themselves and Myanmar is a classic example of that,” says Joan Carling, Executive Director of Indigenous Peoples Rights International, a Philippines-based global organization that works to safeguard the rights of indigenous peoples.

Philippines is yet another country that has gained notoriety for killing environmental defenders, especially in the indigenous territories.

The statistics from the Missing Voices report show that of the 196 defenders reportedly killed or forcibly disappeared globally in 2023, 17 were in the Philippines, the highest toll in Asia. More environmental defenders have been killed in the country than anywhere else in the region over the past 11 years.

Carling, who has been attending COP16, reveals that the indigenous people’s body has been demanding the formation of a new, official forum within the UNCBD to ensure safety and inclusion of indigenous peoples as the implementation of GBF begins worldwide. The new platform—a permanent subsidiary body—will specifically focus on Article 8J of the KMGBF that commits to, among others, respect, preserve and maintain knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and local communities… for the conservation of biological diversity.

“We need to recognize indigenous environmental defenders as the key actors in biodiversity conservation in this COP,” Carling says.

Targeted by the Drug Cartels

Colombia, the host of COP16, holds a dubious record of witnessing the greatest number of murders of environmental defenders. The country was in an armed conflict with ultra-communist rebels led by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) for five decades until it signed a peace agreement with the government in 2016. During the period, nearly half a million Colombians were killed and forcibly disappeared, of which 200,000 were civilians.

Today Colombia is no longer in an armed conflict yet it continues to witness murders of environmental defenders.

On October 28, in a plenary session focused on Target 22 of the GBF, it was revealed that 240 people had been killed between 2016 and 2024 in Colombia for opposing destruction of forests and nature. Drug cartel runners were responsible for the majority of murders.

On 29 October, at a side event, speakers from different UN agencies and the government of Colombia drew attention to the dire need for international collaboration to curb drug trafficking. This, they said, could only be done if the peace treaty is implemented well and in time and concrete steps were taken in collaboration with international communities to destroy the supply chain of drugs originating from Colombia.

According to Jose Manuel Peria, head of green business at the Ministry of the Environment, Colombia, the government has been proposing new strategies to ensure the rights of farmers and those on the frontline of environmental conservation. These include restructuring the government system and building new channels for generating resources for the communities, especially with an environmental focus.

“There is no longer just talk of agricultural production, but sustainable agriculture. We are now building this narrative in the ministries and portfolios involved in all these (implementation of the peace accord) processes. And indeed, biodiversity and the sustainable management of life are at the very center of this process,” Peria asserts.

But Mary Creagh Raine, the Nature Minister for the United Kingdom, who also spoke at the event, said that while the action at the local and national level was crucial, it was also equally important to crack down on the international markets of Colombian drugs. The UK, said Creagh Raine, was one such market for the drug cartel and if the cartel and the violence they unleash on local environmental defenders were to stop, Colombia and the UK would have to work closely to ensure that the smuggling route and the markets are also closed.

“There is still so much to do to ensure that crimes against the environment and people are prosecuted and punished with the severity they deserve,” said Craigh Raine. “The transnational nature of drug trafficking is modern, agile and highly sophisticated. If we really want to be effective, we must do more together to demonstrate the same multinational consistency and coordination, Creagh Raine said.

No End of Conflict, No Peace with Nature

The Biodiversity COP started with the overarching goal of “Making Peace with Nature,” but can this be ever achieved given the current scale of war and armed conflict across global regions and their high impact on biodiversity?

Answering this question, Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General, told IPS that achieving peace with nature is only possible if there is a political solution to the ongoing wars and conflicts.

“To make peace with nature, we must first make peace with ourselves. That is why we have been asking for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, release of the hostages and the massive humanitarian aid to Gaza. That is why we are asking for peace in Lebanon—a peace that respects Lebanese sovereignty, Lebanese territorial integrity and paves the way for a political solution. That is why we are asking for peace in Sudan—the enormous stress that exists. To make peace with nature, we must first make peace with ourselves because wars are won at the most devastating impacts of biodiversity, climate and pollution,” said Guterres.
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Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world? Credit: Shutterstock.

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Alarmists, mainly politicians, economists and wealthy elites, are announcing that the world’s demographic sky is collapsing. The world’s demographic sky is not collapsing but simply changing.

And that demographic change should not be blamed on the emancipation of women. It’s also somewhat perplexing that the alarmists don’t give consideration to the failure of men as a major contributing factor to the world’s changing demographic sky.

In general, men have neither recognized nor adjusted to the major economic, social and cultural changes that have taken place at the workplace, the community and the household as well as in their personal relationships with women.

Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The exceptional high rates of global population growth and relatively young age structures that were experienced during the second half of the 20th century are over.

It is also indeed the case that many countries worldwide are expected to experience population decline and population ageing over the coming decades.

In the early 1960s world population grew at a record high of 2.3 percent, global fertility rate was five births per woman and the world’s median age was 21years. Today the world’s population growth rate is estimated at 0.9 percent, the global fertility rate is slightly more than two births per woman and the world’s median age is 31 years.

By mid-century the growth rate of the world’s population is expected to decline to 0.4 percent. At that time the global fertility rate is expected to have fallen to two births per woman with the world’s median age increasing to 37 years.

The declines in demographic growth rates accompanied by population ageing are largely the result of the reproductive decisions made by millions of women and men concerning the number and spacing of births. Those decisions are based largely on their personal desires and social and economic circumstances.

The world’s population is now slightly more than 8 billion, having quadrupled during the past hundred years. Nearly all demographers appreciate that world population will likely peak during the current century

According to the United Nations projections (medium variant), the world’s population is projected to continue growing, likely peaking at 10.3 billion in about sixty years. After reaching that level, the world’s population is expected to decline slowly to 10.2 billion by the close of the 21st century (Figure 1).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Despite the expected additional two billion people on the planet, alarmists fret by noting that for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century, the planet’s human population is going to decline. They are distressed and declare that many countries are facing the dire prospects of demographic collapse.

The expected declines in the population size of many countries over the coming decades is largely the result of fewer births than deaths. And the reason for the fewer births is below replacement fertility levels, i.e., less than about 2.1 births per woman.

More than one hundred countries, representing two-thirds of world’s population, are experiencing below replacement fertility (Figure 2).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In 2023, the populations of some 80 countries and areas experienced a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 3).

 

Source: National surveys and United Nations.

 

In the absence of compensating immigration, most of the countries with below replacement level fertility are facing the prospects of demographic decline accompanied by considerable population aging. Among the countries facing population decline in the coming years are China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Ukraine (Figure 4)

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world?

According to many alarmists, the emancipation of women is responsible because emancipated women are simply choosing not to have enough births to ensure their country’s population growth.

In large part due to the ominous concerns being raised about population decline, many government officials and wealthy elites are urging and cajoling their female citizens to have more babies. Among their various pro-natalist policies, governments are offering cash incentives, child allowances, paid parental leave, flexible work schedules, affordable childcare and financial assistance to families.

For example, China recently announced its attempt to create a “birth-friendly society”. The government has announced various incentives, including establishing a childbirth subsidy system and various tax cuts for parents. In addition, families with multiple children would be given privileges in home purchasing, housing loans and larger homes.

Despite decades of pro-natalist efforts, governments worldwide have not been able to raise their fertility rates back to the replacement level. Some demographers have concluded that once a country’s fertility rate falls well below the replacement level, i.e., under 1.8 births per woman, it’s very difficult to raise it by any significant amount despite government policies, programs and spending.

The major and often sole focus of concern of alarmists is the national economy, i.e., growth of the GNP, production, consumption, labor force size, etc. Rarely do those alarmists ring warning bells or express serious anxieties about vital non-economic matters, such as climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, gender equality and human rights.

Rather than attempting to return to the population growth rates and age structures of the recent past, government officials, their economic advisors and wealthy elites need to recognize and adjust to the changing 21st century demographic sky. By doing so, they will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the wide-ranging social, economic, environmental and climatic benefits and opportunities as well as the many challenges that lie ahead.

Again, to be clear, the world’s demographic sky is not collapsing. It is simply changing to low or negative rates of national population growth accompanied by older age structures. And also instead of blaming the emancipation of women, the alarmists should seriously consider the failure of men as an important factor contributing to the world’s changing demographic sky.

 

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

 

The UN General Assembly votes on the necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba. Credit: UN Photo/Evan Schneider

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Although classified as a compact tropical cyclone and considered one of the smallest in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Oscar has caused considerable damage in eastern Cuba since it made landfall on October 20, 2024. Cuban authorities have confirmed that the death toll has risen to seven, in additional to the damage in infrastructure. Communications and relief efforts were greatly impeded by a nationwide power grid blackout, which continues on in much of Cuba at the time of publication.

Hurricane Oscar has led to significant flooding in some of the nation’s most densely populated regions such as San Antonio. “The main concern is just very heavy rainfall that’s occurring over portions of eastern Cuba right now that are likely producing significant flooding and even potentially some mudslides in that area,” said Philippe Papin, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.

“The municipalities of San Antonio and Imías have been heavily battered by this event and there have even been levels of flooding that were not historically recorded in these two areas,” said Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.

Harsh winds, torrential rain, and flooding from Oscar has left many civilian infrastructures compromised or completely ruined. The Cuban government informed reporters that 2-meter swells hit the coasts of Baracoa, leading to walls and roofs sustaining damage. The Guantánamo province ranks among one of the hardest hit regions, with more than one-thousand homes damaged by Oscar.

In a statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter), the Cuban government confirmed that electricity access has been restored for approximately 88.12 percent of customers in Havana, the nation’s capital, early last week. According to the Energy Ministry of Cuba, other areas including Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba struggle to conduct their daily lives with only forty to sixty percent connectivity. Service is believed to be inaccessible to much of Cuba still.

Cuba’s health minister José Angel Portal Miranda informed reporters that the country’s health facilities relied on the use of electricity generators as healthcare personnel tended to the injured. In a televised address on October 17, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz indicated Cuba’s plan to conserve as much electricity as possible, so as to not leave the entire nation destitute. “We have been paralyzing economic activity to generate (power) to the population,” he said.

Thousands of Cubans rallied on the streets to protest the nationwide lack of power, beginning on October 21.

“We’ve gone four days without electricity. Our food is going bad. Our kids are suffering. We don’t have water”, said Marley Gonzalez, a Cuban resident who participated in the protest.

President Díaz-Canel urged protesters to voice their opinions with “discipline” and “civility” saying, “We are not going to accept nor allow anyone to act with vandalism and much less to alter the tranquility of our people. That’s a conviction, a principle of our revolution.”

Many Cubans have shifted blame to the U.S. government for its six-decade long embargo on fuel supplies to Cuba. “The most absurd thing is that they have applied a criminal blockade against us for more than 65 years. We have not had stable fuel supplies so that the system can operate at its full capacity and with all its stability,” President Díaz-Canel stated.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded to these comments, explaining that the “long-term mismanagement of its economic policy and resources has certainly increased the hardship of people in Cuba”.

The recent outages have caused concern among Cuban officials and humanitarian organizations, with many fearing that the recurring blackouts could signal the wake of a humanitarian crisis. The lack of power in Cuba has made relief efforts increasingly difficult for aid personnel. According to President Díaz-Canel, much of Cuba remains inaccessible due to the effects of Oscar. “Adding a hurricane hit on top of the existing power failure can make the hurricane impact far worse, further risking lives and resulting in challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the hurricane’s impacts,” said Jon Porter, a chief meteorologist for AccuWeather.

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Faiza Ally, a pupil at Mtoni Primary School in Mara Region, plants a tree. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

By Kizito Makoye
MUSOMA, Tanzania, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

At Gabimori primary school, located at Nyamagaro ward in Tanzania’s northern Rorya district, a 15-year-old  Florence Sadiki kneels among polyethylene bags, carefully examining the seedlings she and her classmates  have nurtured from tiny sprouts “We’ve planted many trees to make our school look better and to help fight climate change,” she says.

Sadiki is part of an inspiring grassroots movement in the east African country where students, teachers, and community members team up to fight environmental degradation through reforestation. In Rorya district, nestled on the shores of Lake Victoria, rampant deforestation driven by charcoal production has left the land barren. But the efforts of school environmental clubs, supported by the Lake Community Program (LACOP), are working to repair the damage.

The reality in Rorya is grim. Erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts have changed swathes of once-fertile land into dry savannas, a trend that has only accelerated since the initiative began in 2022. Spearheaded by the global charity World Neighbors and the Lake Community Development Foundation (LACODEFO), this initiative empowers students to plant trees and learn the entire process of growing them.

Daudi Lyamuru speaks during a village meeting to mobilize the community to plant trees and support the climate mitigation project. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

 

Pupils at Mwenge primary school pose for a photo after tree planting exercise. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

“We’re teaching students to set up their own nurseries,” says Idrisa Lema, the project officer. “It’s not enough to hand out seedlings. They need to learn the whole process—choosing drought-resistant species, improving soil with organic manure, and using techniques like mulching.” This holistic approach  promotes sustainability and equips students with transferable skills that can help them for the rest of their lives.

In the past two years, the students have successfully planted 2,800 trees across five villages, a remarkable achievement that has already begun to bear fruit. Some once-dry water springs are starting to flow again. Yet challenges remain, particularly in Nyamagaro and neighboring Kyangasaga villages, where erratic rainfall and drought continue to hinder progress.

“Watering the trees is tough,” admits Alex Lwitiko, an environmental teacher at Rorya Girls’ School. “We’ve had to be strict with the students—otherwise, the trees wouldn’t survive.”

To adapt, students have switched to innovative solutions like bottle irrigation and even drilled water wells to support their young trees. “We focus on drought-resistant species and organic farming methods to give the trees the best chance,” Lwitiko says, emphasizing the program’s commitment to teaching sustainability.

Sadiki herself has learned to adapt. “I know how to graft trees and grow them in tough conditions now,” she says. “These trees are our future. They fight climate change, provide shade, and even improve soil fertility.”

A government official, Aloycia Mdeme, plants a tree to signify the launch of the school environmental club. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

 

Mtoni Primary School pupils plant trees; this project has become central to the region’s contribution to climate change mitigation. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

In Tanzania, the impact of climate change is becoming increasingly severe. The country aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 35 percent by 2030, a goal outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Despite its low carbon footprint—just 0.22 tons per capita compared to the global average of 7.58—Tanzania is reeling from climate-related disasters. Droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns disrupt agriculture, drying up water sources and threatening economic stability.

For the rural poor, especially those who rely on farming—the backbone of the economy, making up 28 percent of GDP—the stakes are higher. But in places like Nyagisya and Rorya Girls Secondary Schools, students have taken up the fight. Through tree planting, they have become unlikely climate crusaders, tackling environmental degradation while improving food security and boosting local livelihoods.

The act of planting trees offers more than shade and fruit. It symbolizes a deeper mission—restoring soil, preserving water, and, for these students, delivering a form of climate justice. The reforestation efforts are in step with Tanzania’s broader plans to fortify its agriculture and water systems against the advancing climate crisis.

As these student-led initiatives flourish, they mirror Tanzania’s urgent call for global support. With limited resources, the country is striving to fulfill its commitments yet it recognizes that the battle against climate change is a collective endeavor that requires unity on a global scale.

Despite the promising efforts in Tanzania, significant challenges remain. One of the main hurdles is the unpredictability of funding. Tree-planting initiatives and climate adaptation programs require sustained financial support, but resources are often limited, local analysts say.

Without consistent funding, scaling up projects and maintaining long-term impact becomes difficult.

Community members plant trees in Rorya district. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

While students have embraced environmental stewardship, not all local households are on board. In some areas, livestock continues to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of reforestation. Additionally, cultural and economic pressures, such as the reliance on charcoal for income and firewood for cooking, contribute to ongoing deforestation, making conservation efforts harder.

Erratic rainfall and worsening drought conditions present another barrier. Water scarcity makes it harder to nurture newly planted trees, despite innovative solutions. These conditions also strain local agriculture, which many families depend on, increasing the urgency of balancing conservation with survival needs.

While Tanzania has ambitious climate goals, the gap between policy and practical implementation remains wide, particularly in rural areas where the effects of climate change are felt most acutely. 

At Gabimori Primary School, students have embraced their role as environmental stewards. “They’ve seen how conservation affects their daily lives,” says teacher Witinga Mattambo. “They now understand the link between the trees and the food they eat.”

The impact is vivid for students like Sadiki. “I never realized trees were this important,” she says. “They bring rain and improve our environment.”

For Lema, this is only the beginning. By fostering leadership skills and engaging the broader community, the program is building a new generation of Tanzanians dedicated to environmental protection. “We’ve even seen parents get involved,” Lwitiko says. “They’re starting to plant trees in their own yards.”

Still, the program faces hurdles. Some households allow their livestock to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of the students. “It’s frustrating,” admits Lwitiko, “but we’re making progress, step by step.”

Lema has ambitious plans to expand the initiative.

“We’re training students to pass on their knowledge,” he says. “As they move on, they’ll teach younger students, and we’ll spread this effort to other schools.” But scaling the program will require more funding.

“We’re working on securing more resources and partnering with local governments to enforce tree-planting bylaws,” Lema explains. There are also plans to set up household tree nurseries, allowing families to earn extra income while contributing to conservation.

For Sadiki, the program’s impact is lasting.

“We have the duty to plant trees and protect our environment. It’s something we’ll carry with us for the rest of our lives.”

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Excerpt:

The act of planting trees offers more than shade and fruit. It symbolizes a deeper mission—restoring soil, preserving water, and, for these students, living in Tanzania’s northern Rorya district, delivering a form of climate justice. The reforestation efforts are in step with Tanzania's broader plans to fortify its agriculture and water systems against the advancing climate crisis.

Vivienne Rakotoarisoa harvests a reed known locally as Rambo (scientific name: Lepironia articulate) on her small plot of land in Mangatsiotra village in Madagascar’s coastal Vatovavy Fitovinany region, which she will later craft into baskets and mats to sell at a nearby market. Credit: UNEP
 
Climate change, the loss of nature, pollution and waste: The impacts of a triple planetary crisis are scarring Africa’s landscapes, depleting the continent’s oceans and freshwater sources, and raising urban air pollution to hazardous levels.

By Rose Mwebaza
NAIROBI, Kenya, Oct 30 2024 (IPS)

Some of the creeping impacts of this triple crisis are possibly the most debilitating: Africa is the most severely impacted region by desertification and land degradation, with approximately 45% of its land area affected. In the Horn of Africa and the Sahel alone, it imposes food shortages on more than 23 million people. Just last month, more than 700,000 people were affected by floods in Central and West Africa, and tens of millions in southern Africa are facing drought.

Desertification, drought, and land degradation don’t happen overnight, but pose a grave threat to long-term food sovereignty, gender equality, peace, and other development goals.

Africa is the world’s youngest continent, and its talents and resources are huge. The continent’s 54 countries have immense promise and power when they come together, as the budding African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement shows. And what may be true for trade is absolutely clear for addressing common environmental challenges.

As António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, has remarked, “Just as the injustice of climate change burns fiercely here in Africa, so do the opportunities.”

Rose Mwebaza

The continent is poised to demonstrate that through unity and coordinated action, it can lead the world towards a more just and sustainable future.

Back in November 2022, at the UN Climate Change Conference in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, working together, African governments helped broker a historic agreement on the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund to support developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

Subsequent gatherings of African environment ministers last year in Nairobi – for Africa Climate Week, the Africa Climate Summit and the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment – sustained this momentum.

Later in 2023, countries aligned in Dubai (COP28) to ensure that the Loss and Damage Fund would not be a mere promise but would be replenished with actual resources. When African states unite their efforts, they can achieve substantial results for the continent’s people.

The potential is evident on multiple other issues as well: an Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa brings together countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Namibia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy across the continent and driving green industrialization.

A partnership between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to establish battery and Electric vehicle Special Economic Zone is yet another example of how African nations are leveraging their natural resources for sustainable development, setting the continent as a key player in the emerging green economy.

The African Ministerial Conference on the Environment in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire last August was another opportunity for Africa to flex its diplomatic muscles. It was possibly the last chance for all African Environment Ministers to gather in the same room to align policies and actions ahead of three critical global conferences on biodiversity, climate, and desertification later this year.

In these discussions, the importance of finance cannot be overstated. Consider that 33 of Africa’s countries are part of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group, making them highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. Consider that the average debt ratio in sub-Saharan Africa has almost doubled since 2013 and peaking at over 60 per cent, making new financing expensive and forcing spending cuts.

At the same time, there is a strong need for greater investment in science-policy interfaces, to better anticipate droughts and other environmental disasters by applying the best available scientific tools and adaptation measures.

A good start is by strengthening cross-border coordination, raising the political profile of environmental issues, and mobilizing the necessary resources to combat these threats. Another crucial step is to anchor the understanding that reversing trends in deforestation, soil aridification and land degradation is a potent economic opportunity.

There is a need to center local communities in decision-making on environmental policies affecting them, and to ensure their rights are respected and they can fully benefit from economic opportunities emerging from their lands.

From Mauritania to Djibouti, a Great Green Wall is steadily pushing against the expansive desert. Greening initiatives across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, and Somalia, farming projects such as in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are revitalizing soils and boosting the livelihoods of communities. Research shows how every very dollar invested in restoration can create up to 30 dollars in economic benefits.

When it comes to shaping the global environmental agenda, there’s a leadership role for Africa to seize. Africans of all walks of life are ready to do their part and reap the benefits it brings. And we know when 54 governments jointly flex their muscle, the continent moves fast and forward.

Dr. Rose Mwebaza is the Regional Director and Representative, UNEP Africa Office.

Source: Africa Renewal: a United Nations digital magazine that covers Africa’s economic, social and political developments—and the challenges the continent faces, and the solutions to these by Africans themselves, including with the support of the United Nations and international community.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Residents pose behind the sprinkler that irrigates an alfalfa field thanks to the energy generated by a photovoltaic panel installed on Fanny Lastra's property in Mirador de Bío Bío, Chile. Credit: Courtesy of Fresia Lastra

By Orlando Milesi
SANTIAGO, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

The production of solar energy by means of panels installed on small farmers’ properties or on the roofs of community organisations is starting to directly benefit more and more farmers in Chile.

This energy enables technified irrigation systems, pumping water and lowering farmers’ bills by supporting their business. It also enables farmers’ cooperatives to share the fruits of their surpluses.

The huge solar and wind energy potential of this elongated country of 19.5 million people is the basis for a shift that is beginning to benefit not only large generators.

The potential capacity of solar and wind power generation is estimated at 2,400 gigawatts, which is 80 times more than the total capacity of the current Chilean energy matrix.

The mayor of Las Cabras, Juan Pablo Flores, first on the left, on the roof of the building of his Municipality along with employees who installed the photovoltaic panels that will allow energy savings of more than US$ 10,000 per year. Credit: Courtesy of Municipality of Las Cabras

Two farming families

Fanny Lastra, 55, was born in the municipality of Mulchén, 550 kilometres south of Santiago, located in the centre of the country in the Bío Bío region. She has lived in the rural sector of Mirador del Bío Bío in the town since she was 8.

“We won a grant of 12 million pesos (US$12,600) to install a photovoltaic system with sprinklers to make better use of the little water we have on our five-hectare farm and have good alfalfa crops to feed the animals,” she told IPS from her home town.“We used to irrigate all night, we didn't sleep, and now we can optimise irrigation¨: Fanny Lastra.

She refers to the resources provided to applicants who are selected on the basis of their background and the situation of their farms by two government bodies, mostly through grants: the National Irrigation Commission (CNR) and the Institute for Agricultural Development (Indap).

“Before we had to irrigate all night, we didn’t sleep, and now we can optimise irrigation. The panel gives us the energy to expel the water through sprinklers. In the future we plan to apply for another photovoltaic panel to draw water and fill a storage pool,” Lastra said.

The area has received abundant rainfall this year, but a larger pond would allow to store water for dry periods, which are increasingly recurrent.

“We have water shares (rights), but there are so many of us small farmers that we have to schedule. In my case, every nine days I have 28 hours of water. That’s why we applied for another project,” she said.

Lastra works with her children on the plot, which is mainly dedicated to livestock.

The conversion of agricultural land like hers into plots for second homes, which is rampant in many regions of Chile, has also reached Bío Bío and caused Lastra problems. For example, dogs abandoned by their owners have killed 50 of her lambs in recent times.

That is why she will gradually switch to raising larger livestock to continue with Granny’s Tradition, as she christened her production of fresh, mature cheeses and dulce de leche.

Marisol Pérez, 53, produces vegetables in greenhouses and outdoors on her half-hectare plot in the town of San Ramón, within the municipality of Quillón, 448 kilometres south of Santiago, also in the Bío Bío region.

In February 2023 she was affected by a huge fire. “Two greenhouses, a warehouse with motor cultivators, fumigators and all the machinery burnt down. And a poultry house with 200 birds that cost 4500 pesos (US$ 4.7) each. Thank God we saved part of the house and the photovoltaic panel,” She told IPS from his home town.

Pérez has been working the land with her sister and their husbands for 11 years.

“We started with irrigation and a solar panel.  After the fire we reapplied to the CNR. As the panel didn’t burn, they helped us with the greenhouse. The government gives us a certain amount and we have to put in at least 10%,” she explained.

The first subsidy was the equivalent of US$1,053 and the second, after the fire, was US$842. With both she was able to reinstall the drip system and rebuild the greenhouse, now made of metal.

“Having a solar panel allows us to save a lot. Before, we were paying almost 200,000 pesos (US$210) a month. With what we saved with the panel, we now pay 6,000 pesos (US$6.3)”, she explained with satisfaction.

In her opinion, “the solar panel is a very good thing.  If I don’t use water for the greenhouses, I use it for my house. We live off what we harvest and plant. That’s our life. And I am happy like that,” she said.

Ignacio Mena, Coopeumo network administrator, in front of the warehouse where photovoltaic panels were installed. Credit: Orlando Milesi / IPS

The cases of one cooperative and two municipalities

The proliferation of solar panels is also due to the drop in their price. Solarity, a Chilean solar power company, reported that prices are at historic lows.

In 2021 its value per kilowatt (kWp) was 292 dollars. It increased to 300 in 2022, then dropped to 202 and reached 128 dollars in 2024.

In 2021 the Cooperativa Intercomunal Peumo (Coopeumo) commissioned the first community photovoltaic plant in Chile. Today it has 54.2 kWp installed in two plants, with about 120 panels in total.

The energy generated is used in some of its own facilities and the surplus is injected into the Compañía General de Electricidad (CGE), a private distributor, which pays its contribution every month.

This amount contributes to improving support for its 350 members, all farmers in the area, including technical assistance, the sale of agricultural inputs, grain marketing and tax consultancy.

Coopeumo’s goals also include reducing carbon dioxide (C02) emissions into the atmosphere and benefiting its members.

It also benefits the municipalities of Pichidegua and Las Cabras, located 167 and 152 kilometres south of Santiago, as well as school, health and neighbourhood establishments.

“The energy savings in a typical month, like August 2024, was 492,266 pesos (US$518),” said Ignacio Mena, 37, and a computer engineer who works as a network administrator for Coopeumo, based in the municipality of Peumo, in the O’Higgins region, which borders the Santiago Metropolitan Region to the south.

Interviewed by IPS at his office in Pichidegua, he said the construction of the first plant cost the equivalent of US$42,105, contributed equally by Coopeumo and the private foundation  Agencia de Sostenibilidad Energética.

Constanza López, 35, a risk prevention engineer and head of the environmental unit of the Las Cabras municipality, appreciates the contribution of the panels installed on the roof of the municipal building. They have an output of 54 kilowatts and have been in operation since 2023.

“We awarded them through the Energy Sustainability Agency.  They funded 30 percent and we funded the rest,” she told IPS at the municipal offices. “This year is the first that the programme is fully operational and we should reach maximum production,” she said.

In the case of the municipality of Las Cabras, the estimated annual savings is about US$10,605.

An expert explains to a group of small farmers at Mirador de Bío Bío the benefits and operation of solar panels. Credit: Courtesy of Fresia Lastra

Panels and family farming, a virtuous cycle

There is a virtuous cycle between the use of panels and savings for small farmers. The Ministry of Energy estimates this saving at around 15% for small farms.

“The use of solar technology for self-consumption is a viable alternative for users in the agricultural sector. More and more systems are being installed, which make it possible to lower customers‘ electricity bills,” the ministry said in a written response.

Since 2015, successive governments have promoted the use of renewable energy, particularly photovoltaic systems for self-consumption, within the agricultural sector.

“There has been a steady growth in the number of projects using renewable energy for self-consumption. In total, 1,741 irrigation projects have been carried out with a capacity of 13,852 kW and a total investment of 59,951 million pesos (US$63.1 million),” the ministry said.

The CNR told IPS that so far in 2024 it has subsidised more than 1,000 projects, submitted by farmers across Chile.

“This is an investment close to 78 billion pesos (US$82.1 million), taking into account subsidies close to 62 billion pesos (US$65.2) plus the contribution of irrigators,” it said.

Of these projects, at least 270 incorporate non-conventional renewable energies, “such as photovoltaic systems associated with irrigation works”, it added.

According to the National Electricity Coordinator, the autonomous technical body that coordinates the entire Chilean electricity system, between September 2023 and August 2024, combined wind and solar generation in Chile amounted to 28,489 gigawatt hours.

In the first quarter of 2024, non-conventional renewable energies, such as solar and wind among others, accounted for 41% of electricity generation in Chile, according to figures from the same technical body.

Sustainable forest management plans are strengthening production systems and lucrative value chains, such as cacao and açaí. Credit: FAO

By Susana Muhamad and Kaveh Zahedi
CALI, Colombia, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

As countries are meeting in Cali, Colombia, for the 2024 UN Biodiversity Conference (CBD COP 16), the fate of biodiversity hangs in the balance, and with it, the sustainability of our food systems.

Agriculture and food systems are often associated with biodiversity loss. Land-use change, climate change, pollution, overexploitation of wild species, and the spread of invasive species – the main drivers of biodiversity loss – can all be linked to unsustainable agricultural practices.

Sustainable agriculture can enhance biodiversity, improve soil fertility and water availability, support pollination and pest control, while also promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation and healthy diets for all

But there is another side to the coin. Agriculture is central to the sustainable use of biodiversity, an important goal and, possibly, the biggest breakthrough of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), in its roadmap to a world living in harmony with nature.

Sustainable agriculture can enhance biodiversity, improve soil fertility and water availability, support pollination and pest control, while also promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation and healthy diets for all.

Evidence shows that the adoption of agroforestry, for example, cultivating trees, shrubs, and crops together on the same plots, can achieve up to 80% of the biodiversity levels of natural forests, reduce 50% of soil erosion, and boost healthy diets for 1.3 billion people living on degraded land.

Using an ecosystem approach to fisheries could help restore marine fish populations, increasing fisheries production by a staggering 16.5 million tonnes.

In Colombia, the Pacífico Biocultural project, financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), harnesses several agrifood systems solutions across the Pacific region of the country, helping biodiversity and communities, including Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendents and small-scale producers, to flourish.

Sustainable forest management plans are strengthening production systems and lucrative value chains, such as cacao and açaí.

The project is working to restore mangroves, which defend the region against coastal erosion and extreme weather events. This also improves the harvest of piangua, a native mollusk valuable for both nutrition and livelihoods.

The project has provided new and existing protected areas with upgraded equipment and management plans. Ecotourism and bird watching corridors in these areas are creating new green jobs.

Among the main achievements of the Pacífico Biocultural project, the following stand out:

• Five ethnic territory planning instruments formulated or updated, covering 195,107.35 hectares;
• Increased management effectiveness for 586.035 hectares in eight protected areas;
• 27 green business initiatives, seven added value units (UVAs), and six community-based nature tourism initiatives supported; and
• Structured and implemented Participatory Ecological Restoration Plans in mangrove and tropical rainforest areas on 1,000 hectares.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) also leads the implementation of two other projects in the country, in coordination with the Ministry of Environment of Colombia.

The ‘Paisajes Sostenibles – Herencia Colombia (HeCo)’ project, financed by the EU, uses an integrated landscape approach, to achieve sustainability in agrifood systems in Colombia´s two strategic biodiversity regions – the Caribbean and Andes.

In the ecological corridor between the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and the Ramsar site Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta of the Caribbean region, the project works on the sustainability of coffee plantations, beekeeping, and tourism production chains in coastal areas.

In Ciénaga, it works on the artisanal fishing chain, mangrove restoration, tourism, and circular economy initiatives to address plastic pollution. In the Cordillera Central moorland ecosystem, the project aims to improve the sustainability of livestock management in the high mountains, hand in hand with the traditional inhabitants.

With an emphasis on the Amazon Biome, the Green Climate Fund (GCF)-funded ‘GCF-Visión Amazonía’ project, in collaboration with Colombia’s Ministry of Environment and the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), helps implement the REDD+ National Strategy, ‘Bosques Territorios de Vida,’ and the Deforestation Containment Plan. It specifically aims to shift from deforestation towards sustainable forestry development.

Colombia is clearly at the forefront of promoting the sustainability of agrifood systems. But while agrifood systems are receiving more attention in biodiversity policies, especially in National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), most countries find it difficult to carry out these pledges.

The ability to incorporate biodiversity into policies and practices is frequently lacking in the agrifood sector. The amount of money that is available is insufficient to bring about change.

Today, we must consider how to scale up actions and investment to transform agrifood systems. Countries are updating their NBSAPs, to begin implementing the GBF.

Including biodiversity-friendly agrifood solutions and taking farmers, fisherfolk, and livestock herders and producers into account is an essential first step. Having a framework of policies which enable sustainable agrifood systems will smooth the path to creating peace with nature.

To help countries with this effort, FAO, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Secretariat, governments, and partners are launching the Agri-NBSAPs Support Initiative during the high-level segment of COP 16.

It proposes a work plan that includes tasks to help create an environment that is conducive to biodiversity, collect the best data for implementing and measuring biodiversity-friendly policies, obtain funding, and increase understanding.

The transition to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive agrifood systems will be accelerated by helping nations create and implement their NBSAPs and harmonize them with agrifood policies and interventions.

The GBF is an ambitious plan, a challenging plan. But in the long term, it will pay off for us and future generations. Biodiversity is the foundation of food security and nutrition, and an irreplaceable asset in our battle against climate change and its effects. Yet it continues to decline faster than at any time in human history.

Nature has enormous recuperative powers. Let’s give her all the help and opportunities we can to get back on her feet by restoring and sustainably using biodiversity, especially in the pursuit of agriculture. In the future, they will say this was the decade of transformation. We are the generation with the foresight to take steps to ensure the future.

 

Excerpt:

Susana Muhamad is Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development of Colombia and President of the 2024 UN Biodiversity Conference, and Kaveh Zahedi is Director of FAO Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment

More than 700 authors representing 90 different nationalities written the AR6 for IPCC | Credit: Margaret López/IPS

By Margaret López
CARACAS, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

Climate finance will be at the epicenter of the discussion at the UN Climate Change Conference 2024 (COP29). The focus will be on strengthening the fund and defining the conditions under which the countries of the Global South will be able to access this money. However, little is said about the scientific research that is required to gather the evidence and data to prove the loss and damage caused by the impact of climate change in developing countries.

One of the points under discussion is the need for countries of the Global South to provide comprehensive, scientifically backed reports on how they are being directly affected by the impacts of climate change. This requirement guarantees that money will flow to the most affected countries, but it ignores the inequality present in scientific research networks in the Global South.

Floods and the effects of storms or hurricanes are not the only topics we are discussing.  For example, will Latin American countries, such as Brazil or Argentina, be ready to provide data and evidence of how global warming precipitated an increase in dengue cases among their citizens in 2024?

Dengue cases in Latin America tripled compared to the same period in 2023. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) compiled reports of more than 12 million cases of dengue fever in the region up to middle October and, undoubtedly, this additional health burden is part of the less talked about impacts of climate change.

Research centers in Brazil or Argentina, two of the countries with the best scientific networks in the region, can surely deliver the studies to support a financial request to cover these health-related damages. But the scenario is very different if we look at the scientific networks of other Latin American countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay, or my native Venezuela.

More than 3,000 Venezuelan scientists have left the country for lack of support and financial problems in its laboratories since 2009, according to the follow-up done by researcher Jaime Requena, a member of the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Acfiman, its acronym in Spanish). This is equivalent to half of the Venezuelan scientific force, considering that Venezuela had 6,831 active researchers in the Researcher Promotion Program (PPI) in 2009.

Only 11 Venezuelan scientists participated as authors in all the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In AR6, the most recent IPCC report, only three authors were Venezuelan.

Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay were also represented by three researchers in AR6, while other countries such as Paraguay and Bolivia did not even manage to add a scientist to the group of more than 700 authors.

Climatologist Paola Andrea Arias was part of the Colombian representation. She is one of those promoting that the IPCC broaden the diversity of authors in the next report on the effects of climate change in the world.

“We all do science with different perspectives; we will follow the same methods and the same standards, but we have different perspectives. We ask different questions and have different priorities. We see in science the possibility of answering or solving different problems and, obviously, that will be very focused on your reality, the world in which you live, the country or city where you are,” said Arias when I asked her about her participation in AR6.

The low participation of Latin American scientists in global research on climate change, such as that of the IPCC, also means less space and dissemination for those studies that try to track the impacts of climate change in the region. This pattern is also repeated in Africa and Asia.

Promoting more research on the damages and impacts of climate change in the Global South, in the end, is not something that can be separated from climate finance. A clear example is that the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) has just created a scientific committee for its biodiversity conservation fund, as announced during COP16 on biodiversity in Cali, Colombia.

CAF explained that this new biodiversity committee will have “a key role” with recommendations based on scientific evidence to invest in environmental projects. The first tasks of this scientific committee will be focused on providing recommendations for conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of ecosystems in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Chocó, a program that will have access to 300 million dollars.

The creation of a scientific committee to deliver climate finance can be a first step, as shown by CAF’s experience in biodiversity. To move forward on this path, however, it is necessary to promote more funding for Latin American, African, and Asian scientists to do more local research on the impacts of climate change. It’s the only way to gather the scientific evidence to support the contention that the climate crisis represents an obstacle to development in those countries with the largest populations and the greatest number of disadvantages.

This opinion piece is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.
IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

Climate finance will come under intense scrutiny during COP29, and its distribution aligned with scientific analysis of the impacts of climate change, but the methodology ignores the inequality in research networks of the Global South.

Woman farmer with her chicken, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Credit: ILRI/Apollo Habtamu

By Christian Tiambo
CALI, Colombia, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

As the UN’s COP16 biodiversity conference continues, the temptation is to focus on the wild flora and fauna under threat.

But there is another, less obvious yet just as critical biodiversity crisis unfolding around the world that also deserves attention.

A quarter of livestock breeds – from chickens, ducks and geese to horses, camels and cattle – are classified at risk of extinction. Even more concerning is the fact that a lack of data means the status of more than 50 per cent of breeds remains unknown. More than 200 livestock breeds have gone extinct since 2000, some without having ever been recorded.

Just 40 out of thousands of species of mammals and birds have been domesticated for food and agriculture yet these domesticated food-producing animals contribute an average of 40 per cent of the world’s agricultural gross domestic product. Eight of these species provide more than 95 per cent of the human food supply from livestock.

The erosion of local and locally adapted livestock diversity poses an especially serious threat to developing countries, where livestock-keeping generates as much as 80 per cent of agricultural GDP, providing much-needed food, fibre, fuel and draught power.

A shrinking pool of commercially improved livestock provides increasingly limited potential for animals to support food security, economic growth, climate adaptation and even ecosystem services that protect biodiversity more broadly. Maintaining agricultural biodiversity is essential for diverse, healthy diets and resilient, diversified forms of rural livelihoods.

It is therefore vital that negotiators at COP16 include livestock as well as wildlife in their National Biodiversity Strategies and Adaptation Plans (NBSAPs), including agreements to compensate countries for indigenous livestock DNA sequences.

As a minimum, countries should include specific targets for protecting livestock breeds within their NBSAPs to help enshrine the preservation of genetic diversity.

Setting actionable targets is a fundamental step towards maintaining a rich variety of livestock breeds, which is essential for breeding more resilient, heat tolerant and healthy animals.

The ability to improve livestock and make use of the locally adapted characteristics of indigenous breeds is becoming increasingly valuable as the impacts of climate change threaten conventional and exotic breeds. The diversity of local, locally adapted and non-conventional livestock constitute an essential resource that will ensure animal production is able to adapt to climate change, respond to new market opportunities and deal with new disease threats.

For example, the hardy Red Maasai sheep that is indigenous to East Africa and can cope with arid and hot conditions, was on the brink of extinction after many farmers replaced their flocks with South Africa’s Dorper breed to produce more meat. But unlike the Red Maasai, Dorper sheep are less able to thrive in drought conditions. Thankfully, the preservation of the Red Maasai by researchers at the International Livestock Research Institute’s (ILRI) Kapiti Research Station has supported their reintroduction, as well as crossbreeding programs to harness the beneficial traits of both.

Plans to compensate countries for recording such genetic resources, known as digital sequence information, and the associated traditional knowledge, must include livestock so that countries across Africa and the Global South can benefit and use this funding to re-invest in livestock conservation.

Countries should also include protections for the conservation of forages that feed livestock and wild herbivores in their NBSAPs. This is equally important for identifying resilient and low-emissions crops that can meet the nutritional needs of livestock.

Koronivia grass, for example, is native to Africa and is among the collection of germplasm stored at the Future Seeds genebank in Colombia. Breeders produced an improved variety of the grass that was shown to increase levels of soil carbon on tropical savannas by 15 per cent while also reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from grazing cattle by a factor of 10.

Leveraging the full range of the world’s biodiversity can unlock improved breeds and varieties of forages to support sustainable livestock production and maximise its benefits for human development.

Alongside such protections for genetic resources and agricultural biodiversity, governments should also include sustainable livestock production within their NBSAPs to support rangeland restoration and achieve their biodiversity goals.

Livestock systems that integrate sustainable practices like managed grazing can enhance soil health, increase carbon sequestration, and promote ecosystem diversity while generating emissions that are comparable to wild herbivores.

For example, livestock manure already provides 14 per cent of the nitrogen used for crop production globally and a quarter of that used for crop production on mixed crop-and-livestock farms. These closed nutrient cycles replenish soils with nitrogen while also enhancing soil structure and organic matter, improving the nutrient- and water-holding capacities of soils and reducing soil erosion.

The natural world thrives when the balance of biodiversity is maintained, and this includes local and non-conventional livestock as well as wild animals.

For the countries where the right livestock breeds can determine hunger or health, poverty or prosperity, it is essential that the biodiversity talks include cattle, pigs and chickens alongside pandas, rhinos and cheetahs.

To fully take advantage of the diversity of livestock, the global community must conserve genetic resources and put them to use to enable communities to cope with climate change, meet changing market demands, resist diseases, and enhance global food security.

Dr. Christian Tiambo, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, addresses the UN General Assembly’s 75th session September 2020. Credit: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

By Norman Solomon
SAN FRANCISCO, USA, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

The conclusion that Donald Trump is a fascist has gone mainstream, gaining wide publicity and affirmation in recent weeks. Such understanding is a problem for Trump and his boosters.

At the same time, potentially pivotal in this close election, a small proportion of people who consider themselves to be progressive still assert that any differences between Trump and Kamala Harris are not significant enough to vote for Harris in swing states. Opposition to fascism has long been a guiding light in movements against racism and for social justice.

Speaking to a conference of the African National Congress in 1951, Nelson Mandela warned that “South African capitalism has developed [into] monopolism and is now reaching the final stage of monopoly capitalism gone mad, namely, fascism.”

Before Fred Hampton was murdered by local police officers colluding with the FBI in 1969, the visionary young Illinois Black Panther Party leader said: “Nothing is more important than stopping fascism, because fascism will stop us all.”

But now, for some who lay claim to being on the left, stopping fascism is not a priority. Disconnected from the magnitude of this fateful moment, the danger of a fascist president leading a fanatical movement becomes an abstraction.

One cogent critic of capitalism ended a column in mid-October this way: “Pick your poison. Destruction by corporate power or destruction by oligarchy. The end result is the same. That is what the two ruling parties offer in November. Nothing else.”

The difference between a woman’s right to an abortion vs. abortion being illegal is nothing?

“The end result is the same” — so it shouldn’t matter to us whether Trump becomes president after campaigning with a continuous barrage against immigrants, calling them “vermin,” “stone-cold killers,” and “animals,” while warning against the “bad genes” of immigrants who aren’t white, and raising bigoted alarms about immigration of “blood thirty criminals” who “prey upon innocent American citizens” and will “cut your throat”?

If “the end result is the same,” a mish-mash of ideology and fatalism can ignore the foreseeable results of a Republican Party gaining control of the federal government with a 2024 platform that pledges to “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.” Or getting a second Trump term after the first one allowed him to put three right-wing extremists on the Supreme Court.

Will the end result be the same if Trump fulfills his apparent threat to deploy the U.S. military against his political opponents, whom he describes as “radical left lunatics” and “the enemy from within”?

Capacities to protect civil liberties matter. So do savage Republican cuts in programs for minimal health care, nutrition and other vital aspects of a frayed social safety net. But those cuts are less likely to matter to the polemicists who will not experience the institutionalized cruelties firsthand.

Rather than being for personal absolution, voting is a tool in the political toolbox — if the goal is to avert the worst and improve the chances for constructing a future worthy of humanity.

Trump has pledged to be even more directly complicit in Israel’s mass murder of Palestinian people in Gaza than President Biden has been. No wonder, as the Washington Post reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has shown a clear preference for Trump in this election.” During a call this month, Trump told Netanyahu: “Do what you have to do.”

Palestinians, Muslim leaders and other activists in the swing state of Arizona issued an open letter days ago that makes a case for defeating Trump. “We know that many in our communities are resistant to vote for Kamala Harris because of the Biden administration’s complicity in the genocide,” the letter says. “We understand this sentiment.”

“Many of us have felt that way ourselves, even until very recently. Some of us have lost many family members in Gaza and Lebanon. We respect those who feel they simply can’t vote for a member of the administration that sent the bombs that may have killed their loved ones.”

The letter goes on:

As we consider the full situation carefully, however, we conclude that voting for Kamala Harris is the best option for the Palestinian cause and all of our communities. We know that some will strongly disagree. We only ask that you consider our case with an open mind and heart, respecting that we are doing what we believe is right in an awful situation where only flawed choices are available.

In our view, it is crystal clear that allowing the fascist Donald Trump to become President again would be the worst possible outcome for the Palestinian people. A Trump win would be an extreme danger to Muslims in our country, all immigrants, and the American pro-Palestine movement. It would be an existential threat to our democracy and our whole planet.

Exercising conscience in the most humane sense isn’t about feeling personal virtue. It’s about concern for impacts on the well-being of other people. It’s about collective solidarity.

The consequences of declining to help stop fascism are not confined to the individual voter. In the process, vast numbers of people can pay the price for individuals’ self-focused concept of conscience.

Last week, the insightful article “7 Strategic Axioms for the Anxious Progressive Voter” offered a forward-looking way to put this presidential election in a future context: “Vote for the candidate you want to organize against!”

Do we want to be organizing against a fascistic militaristic President Trump, with no realistic hope of changing policies . . . or against a neoliberal militaristic President Harris, with the possibility of changing policies?

For progressives, the answer should be clear.

Norman Solomon is the national director of RootsAction.org and executive director of the Institute for Public Accuracy. His latest book, War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine, was published in paperback this fall with a new afterword about the Gaza war.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Seedlings from the Seeds of Resilience initiative amid destruction in north Gaza. Credit: Bisan Okasha

By Dawn Clancy
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 29 2024 (IPS)

It was two weeks before October 7—when Hamas attacked Israel—that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood behind the rostrum in the United Nations General Assembly hall clutching a crude map of what he called the “new Middle East,” a visual that erased the land of Palestine.

A year later, Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza has accelerated, including the destruction of Palestine’s agricultural lands, tipping Netanyahu’s vision of a Middle East without Palestine closer to reality.

According to a recent report by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), “as of September 1st, 2024, 67.6 percent of Gaza’s cropland has been damaged,” and much of its agricultural infrastructure, including “greenhouses, agricultural wells and solar panels,” has been destroyed.

“There is no agricultural sector anymore,” said Hani Al Ramlawi, director of operations for the Palestinian Agricultural Development Association (PARC). Ramlawi is from Gaza City but relocated to Egypt six months after the conflict began.

Ramwali told IPS that over the past year, no agricultural supplies have made it into the Strip. Ongoing water and electricity shortages have made fuel, used to power generators and solar panels, too expensive and caused the cost of produce in local markets to soar. In the north of Gaza, Ramlawi said one kilo of potatoes, roughly two pounds, costs $80, a kilo of tomatoes around $90 and one kilo of garlic is $200, and the prices fluctuate daily. Less than 10 percent of farmers have access to their land, and the soil is “diseased” due to ongoing military activities.

Everyone in Gaza is “food insecure,” Ramlawi said. Additionally, the International Labor Organization (ILO), a UN agency, estimates that after a year of war, Gaza’s unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 80 percent.

Seedlings waiting to be distributed to home gardens in displacement camps in north Gaza. Credit: Bisan Okasha

A new Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report has found that between Sept. and Oct. 2024, 1.84 million or 90 percent of people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity. “The risk of famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip,” the report added. “Given the recent surge in hostilities, there are growing concerns that this worst-case scenario may materialize.”

Starvation in Gaza, in the context of conflict, is not unique—a group of UN experts published a statement on Oct. 17 warning that “97 percent of Sudan’s IDPs” are facing severe levels of hunger due to “starvation tactics” implemented by the warring parties—but what is different about Gaza, said Michael Fakhri, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food, is the “speed” and the “intensity” at which starvation has spread across the Strip.

“This is the fastest instance of starvation we’ve ever seen in modern history,” said Fakhri. “How is Israel able to starve 2.3 million people so quickly and so completely? It’s almost like they pushed a button or flipped a switch.”

What is happening in Gaza, according to Fakhri, is not entirely a humanitarian crisis brought on by prolonged armed conflict but rather a byproduct of decades of illegal land grabs, forced displacement, punitive economic policies and the physical destruction of Palestinian croplands—whether by bulldozers or ever-widening military buffer zones—by the Israeli government. Practices that began in the late nineteenth century, when the first wave of European Jews emigrated to Palestine, long before the State of Israel was established in 1948.

“There’s a consistent through line” that predates the horrors of October 7, said Fakhri. “What is happening today is not new,” he added, or limited to the Gaza Strip.

Relatedly, in response to Fakhri’s latest report examining food and starvation in Palestine, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon sent a letter of complaint to Secretary-General António Guterres on October 17, calling on him to retract Fakhri’s “disgraceful” and antisemitic report.

Meanwhile in the West Bank, according to Ubai Al-Aboudi, executive director of the Bisan Center for Research and Development—a Palestinian think tank based in Ramallah—the destruction of crop lands and the targeting of farmers, primarily by Israeli settlers, is “systematic.”

“Now is olive season,” Al-Aboudi told IPS. “And we have this tradition; almost all Palestinian families in the West Bank have their olive trees that they go to in the olive picking season.” But with increased settler attacks, villagers now coordinate, Al-Aboudi said, and harvest collectively to protect their lands, their farmers and one another.

According to estimates from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of Oct. 7, 2023, over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, close to 100,000 injured and 1.9 million have been displaced. (OCHA relies on Gaza’s Ministry of Health for casualty figures.) However, a recent report from The Lancet, a weekly medical journal, suggests that the number of dead in Gaza is likely much higher.

While an official tally of the number of farmers killed in the Strip is not available, members of the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC), a Palestinian NGO in Gaza, estimate that since Oct. 7, no fewer than 500 farmers out of roughly 30,000 have been killed.

“You know, the farmers and their families are experiencing the same as what we are witnessing for all the population,” said Mahmoud Alsaqqa in a phone interview with IPS. Alsaqqa is Oxfam’s food security and livelihood lead. He is based in Deir Al-Balah.

But, for the remaining farmers, accessing their lands, most of which are located on the eastern edge of the Strip next to the Israeli border, means risking death or sustaining life-altering injuries. “They become an easy target for the military,” said Alsaqqa. And when farmers are killed, their decade’s worth of agricultural knowledge and know-how dies with them.

“There is significant concern about the challenge of rebuilding the knowledge base in Gaza,” UAWC told IPS. “Many universities have been destroyed, and this creates a major fear regarding the re-establishment of academic and agricultural expertise in the region.”

Still, despite ongoing hostilities and sharp decreases in the availability of humanitarian aid, since Oct. 7, Alsaqqa with Oxfam said that more Palestinians are relying on urban or home gardening to feed their families and others in need.

Before the war, Bisan Okasha’s home garden in the Jabalia camp in northern Gaza was bursting with olive, palm and banana trees, citrus fruits, grapes and mint and basil seedlings. However, after Oct. 7, when her home and garden were destroyed and the threat of famine loomed large, Okasha’s father, determined to rebuild, cleared their land of debris and planted 70 eggplant seedlings on a mound of soil that covered the rubbled chunks of their home.

The effort was “successful,” said Okasha in a series of texts with IPS. The experience left her feeling inspired, and soon after, Okasha, despite being displaced three times, created Seeds of Resilience, a collaborative, community-driven initiative designed to revive and establish home gardens in the north by providing and planting seedlings and seeds for free. So far, Okasha and her team—all volunteers—have planted eggplant, cauliflower, chili, and peppers in multiple home gardens.

“My dad’s personal effort to change the reality we were living in is what gave me the belief that I can create change in my entire community and take a real, practical step to prepare the people in Northern Gaza for any future crisis that may threaten their lives,” said Okasha.

“Wars and disasters in this world show no mercy to souls,” she added.

According to the FAO report, out of the five governorates in Gaza, North Gaza, where the Jabalia camp is located, has the highest proportion of damaged cropland at 78 percent. Khan Younis has the largest amount of damaged agricultural infrastructure—animal shelters, home barns, agricultural houses, and cattle farms—while the Gaza governorate has the largest number of damaged wells, reducing access to water. Relatedly, OCHA estimates that over 70,000 housing units have been destroyed across Gaza.

The Israeli mission to the UN, based in New York, declined to comment on the FAO report, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) did not respond.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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• Will the UN’s Pact of The Future Modernize the World’s Outdated Multilateral Systems?
• Overwhelmed Healthcare Systems in Gaza Struggle Through Evacuation Orders

By Mawdudur Rahman and Habib Siddiqui
BOSTON / PHILADELPHIA, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

The students and the common people of Bangladesh dared to do something in 36 days of July-August that was considered simply impossible by most people just days before August 5, 2024. They said ‘enough is enough’ to an old order that outraged their humanity, robbed their dignity and the rulers imagined that their citadel of power was simply impenetrable. The revolutionists refused to bow down to the murderous regime that knew no bounds to its cruelty and plundering. They were ready to sacrifice their lives for the freedom of the besieged nation.

Mawdudur Rahman

This revolution is unique in so many ways. It is a revolution in the digital age that is rooted in meta-modernist philosophy. The old political leadership with its moribund appeal and bankrupt philosophy proved irrelevant in this agenda. As Professor Yunus, the Chief Advisor to the Interim Government, has rightly said, ‘Now is the era of a new generation’.

Meta-modernism is the cultural philosophy of the digital age, coined by Mas’ud Zavarzadeh in 1975. meta-modernism is the Age of the Internet or more balanced worldview. As one analyst puts it, we went from modernism — “Make it new!” Let’s shape History! – to postmodernism — everything sucks! Nothing really matters! — to meta-modernism – maybe things are not this black-and-white, maybe there’s a middle ground.

Meta-modernist thinkers perceive the present world around them as a threat to their very existence. They work with pragmatic idealism and have no grand narrative thinking or any orthodox certainties. In other words, they try to strike a balance between all of this. They recognize that they have to face the problems of the society.

Habib Siddiqui

Arguably, all the activities of Bangladeshi revolutionists including their wall posters, followed a framework of Meta-Modernism. It is understood that the new Bangladesh is defined in a new ideology. Student revolutionaries have said that our ideology is reflected through the language we use. The basis of the new ideology is language. It is a revolution of change from the cultural context of fascist imperialist language to the native (spoken) language of the people. In other words, new ideals will be reflected through the language of the people.

It would be wrong to think that this people’s revolution was all about a change of government. Its victory is unlike 1947 and 1971. In both those cases, there was a change of government without any structural change. As a result, the incoming government followed imperialist practices of exploitation left behind by the British. Subsequent governments turned the country into a failed democracy, in order to control, exploit and subjugate its citizens. The police were used as an enabling force to subjugate the citizens, while the legislature and judiciary worked as the rubber stamps to sustain the total control of the government. This evil social system has corrupted the mindset and behavior of our people. An immoral society was formed with no fear of accountability, whose driving force was unfathomed greed and mantra — the ‘rule and exploitation by repression’. Government employees saw themselves as bosses and not as public servants. They thrived upon corruption at all levels.

There are now two competing ideologies in front of Bangladesh – one of decaying fascism that wants to resurface under old leadership and the other is the young leadership of equality and morality. As the revolution demonstrated, the ‘New Bangladesh’ does not approve fascist-supporting corrupt institutions. It desires a corruption-free new society. It is for paradigm shift – a transformational change.

The Chief Advisor and Student Coordinators have clearly highlighted the ideals of New Bangladesh through their speeches and interviews. Dr. Yunus said, ‘We are all one nation’. This is a clarion call to establish a holistic change in society. Such a radical change in society requires a change in values. A change in values lies in the change in public ideology.

The new Bangladesh is not the old Bangladesh with a new cover. It demands a change in the fundamental values of human behavior, actions, and beliefs. These include structural changes, personal changes, expectations.

To understand the ideology of this change, one has to listen carefully to the speech of Mahfuz Alam, the ‘thinker’ of the movement. Five points can be deduced from his recent talks: (1) unity, (2) ‘language is their inspiration’, (3) group leadership, (4) they are children of time, and that (5) they are not a slave to traditional thinking. His views reflect today’s meta-modernism.

For any transformational change to succeed, the change agents must own it, direct it, and ultimately excel in it. We think that this revolution of holistic change can benefit from the revolutionary approaches adopted in China and Cuba that were also led by youths. They owned the revolution and did not allow it to be hijacked by the reactionaries. We see some of these characteristics in the minds and mission of the Bangladeshi revolutionaries.

The bottom line is, bringing any changes in old culture habits was never an easy task. This revolution has presented an opportunity to change the destiny of Bangladesh as never before.

The meta-modernist youths of Bangladesh have come to lead and move forward; they will not go back to the old ways. Their message is clear: if you do not join us, the country will not wait for you. If older generations do not adopt the new view of change, we fear further instability and chaos to come, whose outcome cannot be pleasant.

Dr. Mawdudur Rahman, Professor Emeritus, Suffolk University, Boston, USA. He can be contacted at: mrahman@suffolk.edu.

Dr. Habib Siddiqui is a peace and human rights activists. His latest book – ‘Bangladesh: a polarized and divided nation?’ is available in the Amazon.com. Both are members of the steering committee of Esho Desh Gori – Let’s Build Bangladesh.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Transit Site in Roriak, Unity State, South Sudan. People receive support after fleeing conflict in Sudan. Credit: UNICEF/South Sudan

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

Critical levels of nationwide hunger in Sudan has only increased to critical levels since the start of the Sudanese civil war in April 2023. Escalated hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have led to limited mobility and repeated blockages of humanitarian aid. This, coupled with the volatile floods and droughts, have decimated crop fields which has only exacerbated famine levels greatly. All of these factors have left nearly 25 million people in Sudan in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024.

“The situation in Sudan can now only be described as a humanitarian disaster of the highest level. All sides are committing atrocities, as recently confirmed by the United Nations fact-finding mission. The war, now in its second year, has pushed parts of North Darfur into famine conditions, with the situation expected to deteriorate,” said the European Union (EU) Commissioner for Crisis Management, H.E. Mr. Janez Lenarčič.

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) estimates that since the wake of the conflict, there have been over 5,170 violent conflicts in the nation, culminating in the deaths of 14,790 civilians. Early figures from the World Food Programme (WFP) show that there has been little improvement in food security since relief efforts began. Heavy torrential rains and floods have led to the destruction of farmland. Continued fighting between the RSF and the SAF have made it difficult for farmers to cultivate and harvest crops. Approximately 25.6 million people are facing acute food insecurity in Sudan. 13 areas of the country are at risk of experiencing severe famine in the coming months.

The United Nations (UN) reports that sustained violence has led to over 10.7 million people being internally displaced and an additional 2.3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries. Humanitarian organizations are concerned about the scale of Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries, fearing that this could overwhelm economies in northeast Africa.

“This brutal war has uprooted millions of people, forcing them to leave their homes, schools and jobs behind in search of safety. Countries neighbouring Sudan are generously hosting a rising number of refugees, but cannot shoulder that responsibility alone. The stability of the whole region hangs in the balance,” said UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report on October 25 predicting that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, and Ethiopia could be the most negatively impacted from adopting Sudanese refugees. “A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges. And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth,” said Catherine Pattillo, IMF’s deputy director.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to address the Security Council next week on initiatives to take to prevent further suffering in Sudan and its neighbouring countries. The African Union has expressed concern that the escalating situation in Sudan could become a genocide. As is the African Union report into the Rwanda Genocide: “Each case of modern genocide has taken the world by surprise. Even when, in retrospect, it is clear that unmistakable warning signs and statements of intent were there in advance for all to see.”

The UN and its affiliated nations are on the frontlines providing humanitarian assistance to affected communities. In August, Sudanese officials approved requests to open the Adre border in Darfur to allow for aid missions to access critical areas. The World Food Programme has delivered food assistance to over 360,000 people in Darfur. WFP is also mobilized to scale up efforts in Zamzam, aiming to assist more than 180,000 people.

The 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Sudan has requested 2.7 billion dollars to help over 14 million people until the end of the year. With funding having reached only 49 percent, the UN urges donor contributions as conditions grow more dire every day.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The Busher nuclear power plant in Iran. IAEA/Paolo Contri
 
Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah and Hamas weaken Iran. The country’s will to cross the nuclear threshold is growing.

By Ruslan Suleymanov
CAIRO, Egypt, Oct 28 2024 (IPS)

Violence in the Middle East has escalated dramatically since the Hamas terrorist attack in October 2023 and the fallout that has since followed. There is tension, if not a state of war, between all the major opponents on the ground.

Israel is directly facing off with mainly non-state actors from other countries, who have more firepower than their country’s national armies. Think of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq. Together with Hamas, they form the ‘Axis of Resistance’, an armed pro-Iranian alliance in the region.

For years, Tehran’s military doctrine was based on keeping any conflict with a potential enemy far away from its own borders. Now things are different. Iran has launched massive attacks against Israel from its own territory. The country’s shift in foreign policy is primarily a product of events in the Gaza Strip.

Although there is no evidence that Iran was involved in the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, officials in Tehran have openly welcomed the events that killed at least 1 200 people. ‘What they have done signifies pride, glory and strength; God will support them’, said then-Iranian-President Ebrahim Raisi as he congratulated Hamas.

Israel’s subsequent campaign in Gaza has now been going on for a year, claiming the lives of 40 000 civilians. The fate of many Israeli hostages remains unknown.

Israel has now shifted its strategy to intelligence operations. These include the assassination of the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in July, the killing of numerous Hezbollah fighters through exploding communications devices, and the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in October.

All of these were huge moral blows to Iran, showing that it cannot protect its puppets’ commanders even in their own countries — hence Tehran’s response to Israel’s attacks.

The only success that the Israelis’ ground invasion has achieved is that it has diverted the world’s attention away from the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah has lost at least 10 high-ranking leaders, not least Nasrallah, in Israel’s attacks. The militia seems to be on the ground in the long term, but how important it will be in the future is being questioned. Still, it’s too early to write off Hezbollah.

The group has around 100 000 fighters in its ranks, and its arsenal still consists of up to 150 000 missiles. History shows that these groups are quick to replace high-ranking leaders with other militants who can carry on the group’s work seamlessly. In 2004, Israel took out two Hamas leaders. But that only brought the group even greater popularity and influence.

The fact that the militia is still capable of resisting the Israeli government is demonstrated in its drone attack on 13 October this year. To date, more than 80 000 Israeli citizens have had to flee their homes in the north of the country and cannot return home because of coming under constant fire from Lebanon.

The only success that the Israelis’ ground invasion has achieved is that it has diverted the world’s attention away from the Gaza Strip. The situation there is dire: the prospects of freeing the remaining hostages are still slim, and Hamas continues to thrive. After all, Sinwar’s assassination does not mean Hamas has been defeated.

According to ACLED’s US analysts, the group has lost only about 8 500 of its 25 000 to 30 000 fighters in clashes with Israel. These losses are offset by unknown quantities of new Palestinian recruits, who lost friends and relatives in Israel’s attacks.

The attack on Lebanon also triggered the second massive Iranian missile attack on Israel within a year. Both attacks were calculated not in a way to cause maximum damage, but to send a symbolic message. Bold words from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued after the attack showed that Israel’s continued response is still unclear.

All-out war is not as likely as it is sometimes made out to be. This is also due to the great distance between Iran and Israel – at their nearest points, it is 1 200 kilometres. But it’s not just that …

Israel knows that attacking Tehran’s oil industry would send global prices in the crude oil market shooting up and upset its own allies, most notably the US.

Iran has mustered around 40 000 Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani and Syrian militants together in Syria. Iran has not tried to use them against Israel yet, as the Tehran leadership only knows too well that doing so would be suicide. What’s more, the situation in the oil market is preventing escalation on both sides.

While Iran relies on its oil revenues, Israel knows that attacking Tehran’s oil industry would send global prices in the crude oil market shooting up and upset its own allies, most notably the US. Ultimately, a massive attack on Iran with civilian casualties would rally its population around the otherwise unpopular government.

So, despite its military inferiority, the Iranian regime is actually in quite a favourable situation if it comes to direct conflict. Any escalation could only end up strengthening it.

And then there’s the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Officials in Iran have been clear in recent years that when it comes to nuclear weapons, their aim is to maintain what they call a ‘threshold status’, i.e. to be capable of producing nuclear weapons quickly, but only if needed.

The situation has changed dramatically here too. International observers have raised concerns that Iran could soon start developing a nuclear bomb, with US intelligence agencies reporting in July that active preparations were underway.

Shortly afterwards, the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that it could no longer be confident that Iran’s nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes.

It might sound paradoxical, but despite high inflation, more and more people in Iran support the idea of producing nuclear weapons. In a survey conducted by IranPoll, nearly 70 per cent of Iranians surveyed said that the country should possess its own nuclear weapons.

The more pressure that Israel or the West puts on Iran, the more determined the country will be to cross that nuclear threshold to deter a conventionally superior opponent if it deems it necessary.

Ruslan Suleymanov is a Russian orientalist and journalist. He was the senior Middle East correspondent of the TASS news agency in Cairo until February 2022. He resigned from this post in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Source: International Politics and Society (IPS)-Journal published by the International Political Analysis Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin

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