Africa

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Championship side Stoke City sign Feirense midfielder Oghenekaro Etebo for £6.35m (7.2m euros) on a five-year deal.

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By Martin Khor
PENANG, Malaysia, Jun 11 2018 (IPS)

There are increasing warnings of an imminent new financial crisis, not only from the billionaire investor George Soros, but also from eminent economists associated with the Bank of International Settlements, the bank of central banks.   

The warnings come at a moment when there are signs of international capital flowing out of some emerging economies, including Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia.

Some economists have been warning that the boom-bust cycle in capital flows to developing countries will cause disruption, when there is a turn from boom to bust.

All it needs is a trigger, which may then snowball as investors in herd-like manner head for the exit door.  Their behaviour is akin to a self- fulfilling prophecy: if enough speculative investors think this is the time to move back to the global financial capitals, then the exodus will happen, as it did in previous “bust” phases of the cycle.

Soros recently told a seminar in Paris:  “The strength of the dollar is already precipitating a flight from emerging-market currencies.   We may be heading for another major financial crisis. The economic stimulus of a Marshall Plan for Africa and other parts of the developing world should kick in just at the right time.”

Martin Khor

If Soros is right about an imminent crisis, its trigger could come from another European crisis.   Or it could be outflow of funds from several developing countries. Some had received huge inflows when returns were low or even zero in the rich countries.  With US interest rates and bond prices going up, the reverse flow is now taking place and it is only the start with more expected to take place.

Soros’ prediction may not be widely shared.  “Honestly I think that’s ridiculous,” said the head of investment bank Morgan Stanley commenting on Soros.

The Soros warning reminded me of a South Centre debate held in Geneva in April, when we hosted two eminent main speakers to launch their book, “Revolution Required: The Ticking Bombs of the G7 Model.”

The authors were Peter Dittus, former Secretary General of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), and Herve Hamoun, the former Deputy General Manager of BIS.  The BIS is a club of 60 central banks, known as the bank for central banks.

You can’t get a more respected conservative establishment than the BIS, also famous for the quality of its research.

Yet the two recently retired top BIS leaders wrote a book in simple direct language warning of “ticking time bombs” in the global financial system waiting to explode because of the reckless and wrong policies of the major developed countries. Nothing short of a revolution in policy is required, to minimise the damage of a crisis that is about to come, they say.

At the Geneva meeting, Dittus and Hannoun pointed to several problems or “time bombs” that had developed in the developed countries, with potential to harm the world.

The main problem is what they call the G7 debt-driven growth model.  The major countries, except Germany, have lax fiscal policies with high government liabilities as percent of GDP.  In particular the United States has an irresponsible fiscal policy which it has exported to other G7 countries, except Germany.

The unprecedented asset price bubble engineered by G7 central banks is a ticking time bomb that is ready to burst, after seven years of near zero interest rates and speculative excesses in bonds, stocks and real estate. The Federal Reserve has dealt with the bursting of every asset bubble of the last 20 years by creating another, larger bubble.

The US administration has expanded new expenditure and tax cuts by over a trillion dollars, with no funding other than more debt. This “reckless behaviour”, leading to a US fiscal deficit projected to be around 1 trillion USD in 2019, was made possible by the permissive monetary policy conducted by the Fed since 2009, the silence or complacency of the big three US based ratings agencies, and the IMF’s blessing.

The G7 central banks have also become the facilitators of unfettered debt accumulation, according to the authors. The near zero or negative nominal interest rates are a huge incentive to borrow and extreme monetary policies have destroyed any incentive to fiscal rectitude.

G7 total debt in 3rd quarter 2017 was around USD 100 trillion. Together the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the Eurozone account for 64% of the world total debt.

The authors assert the G7 extreme monetary policies since 2012 have undermined the foundations of the market economy.

There are now centrally planned financial markets and the break up of key elements of the market economy model.

Long term interest rates are manipulated, valuations of all asset classes are deeply distorted, sovereign risk in advanced economies is deliberately mispriced, and all these do not reflect fundamentals.

They warn that the unprecedented asset price bubble engineered by G7 central banks is a ticking time bomb that is ready to burst, after seven years of near zero interest rates and speculative excesses in bonds, stocks and real estate. The Federal Reserve has dealt with the bursting of every asset bubble of the last 20 years by creating another, larger bubble.

They also warn that the quantitative easing policy of recent years may shift to a worse policy of government debt monetisation.

Although central banks have made it very clear that large scale government bond purchases are a temporary measure taken for monetary policy reasons, they are slipping into a different concept – that of a permanent intervention of central banks in government bond markets.

This is seen as a way to solve the sovereign debt crisis in major advanced economies, by transferring a growing part of government debt to the central bank: 43 per cent of G7 government bonds in major reserve currencies are now held by central banks and other public entities

G7 central banks are at risk of heading towards the slippery slope which ultimately leads to government debt monetization.

G7 central banks at the cross roads: normalisation or debt monetisation?

They are facing a dilemma, the authors point out.  They have to choose between highly risky scenarios: policy normalisation or government debt monetization?

For the time being, the Fed and the Bank of Canada are leaning towards normalization, albeit at a slow pace, while the ECB and the Bank of Japan are dangerously heading towards a continuation in a way or another of the debt monetization experiment.

Here is the dilemma: G7 central bank’ policy normalisation is the only option consistent with their mandate and with a return to the rules of a market economy. But when G7 Central Banks eventually exit from their unconventional policies, they will contribute to the bursting of the asset price bubbles engendered by their monetary experiment.

This could well be the worst financial crisis ever experienced, as the level of debt and the artificial level of asset prices have no precedent.

But an even worse systemic crisis would result from the continuation of current unconventional policies leading central banks to cross the rubicon of government debt monetisation. The perpetuation of these policies, with their zero or negative interest rate policy and large-scale purchases of government debt, would encourage fiscal deficits and the continued expansion of public debt.

Public debt monetisation, through the transfer of always more government bonds on G7 central banks balance sheets, would destroy the market economy as it would pave the way for an unlimited expansion of the public sector, say the authors.

The above shows why the former BIS officials believe a new financial crisis is brewing.  Changing the recent policy will lead to an explosion, but continuing with the same policy while buying time will lead to an even bigger crisis.

Their analysis of the crisis in the G7 countries matches that of Yilmaz Akyuz, the South Centre’s Chief Economist and author of the book, Playing With Fire.

Akyuz goes further, in analysing the impact a global crisis will have on developing countries.  Since the 2009 global crisis, the developing countries have built up new and increased vulnerabilities to global financial shocks.

Their financial sector has established even more and deeper links to international financial markets, shown for example by high percentage of the ownership of foreign funds and investors in the domestic stock markets and in government bonds of developing countries.

Therefore if there is a significant or big outflow of these foreign funds, the some economies may suffer from loss of foreign reserves, currency depreciation, higher external debt servicing, higher import prices, falling prices of houses and equities and in worse cases an external debt crisis.  A few developing countries are already facing crisis and seeking IMF bail-outs.

Many developing countries still have strong economic fundamentals.  But in many cases, their economies are weakening in one way or other, and the worsening global economic prospects (including the real possibility of a trade war) do not augur well.  The conditions for an external-debt problem have increased.

It would thus be wise for them to monitor and analyse what is happening globally, as these will significantly affect the economy. Scenarios should be established on what may happen externally, including the onset of a new global crisis, how this may affect the economy in various ways, and to prepare for various measures that can be taken.  Crisis prevention and crisis aversion should now be a priority.

Dealing with the domestic economic issues should go together with preparations to cope with changing external situations. Though we may not be able to control what happens abroad, we can take measures to respond appropriately.

 

The post Warnings of a New Global Financial Crisis appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Martin Khor is Executive Director of the South Centre, a think tank for developing countries, based in Geneva

The post Warnings of a New Global Financial Crisis appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Nigeria goalkeeper Francis Uzoho says he is still learning after a remarkable eight months ahead of the World Cup in Russia.

Nigerian authorities say they have rescued 10 children who were being trafficked to Russia.

Sahara Begum of Nadagari village in Jamalpur district lost her home and all her assets to the 2017 floods in Bangladesh. Thousands like her now eke out a living in Dhaka and other cities. Credit: Md Sariful Islam / ActionAid

By Harjeet Singh
NEW DELHI, Jun 11 2018 (IPS)

This year is set to be an important milestone in the arduous journey of climate migrants. The global community is now beginning to fathom the challenges of people displaced by events such as floods, storms and sea level rise that are partly fuelled by climate change.

Natural disasters forced over 18 million people out of their homes in 135 countries just last year, according to a new global report released by Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). It highlights that weather-related hazards triggered the vast majority of the displacement, with floods and storms accounting for more than 80% of the incidents. China, the Philippines, Cuba and the US were the worst affected.

“Climate change is becoming a critical driver of displacement risk across the world, in combination with rapid and badly managed urbanisation, and increasing levels of inequality and persistent poverty,” Bina Desai, Head of Policy and Research at IDMC told indiaclimatedialogue.net.

The study further cites that hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria broke several records in the Atlantic and Caribbean, and a series of storms in South and East Asia and Pacific displaced large numbers of people throughout the year.

Highest disaster displacement risk

In South Asia alone, heavy monsoon floods and tropical cyclones have displaced 2.8 million, and in relation to its population size, the region has the highest disaster displacement risk globally. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are among the 10 countries in the world with highest levels of displacement risk related to sudden-onset events.

In addition, displacement linked to slow-onset events such as sea level rise, desertification and salinisation are displacing millions more, particularly in the Sub-Saharan Africa and Pacific regions.

“No country is immune to climate change impacts anymore,” Sanjay Vashist, Director, Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA), told indiaclimatedialogue.net. “South Asia has 22% of the world’s population but it houses 60% of the poor with the least capacity to confront increasing climate impacts.”

Millions of people in the Sundarbans — a unique mangrove ecosystem shared by Bangladesh and India — are already facing the brunt of rising sea and high intensity storms more frequently. These low-lying islands away from the global attention has already seen thousands being displaced, many of them permanently to inland cities, to eke out a living. See: Sinking Sundarbans islands underline climate crisis

Migration gets centre stage

It was the UN climate change summit in the Mexican city of Cancún in 2010 that for the first time recognised the relationship between climate change and different forms of forced human mobility.

It called on governments to “commit to measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation.” Decisions at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) summits advanced the agenda in subsequent years. A high-level political boost came at the Paris summit in 2015.

The Paris Agreement not only acknowledged the rights of migrants but also gave a mandate to establish a Task Force on Displacement to provide recommendations to the Conference of Parties (COP), the apex body of the UNFCCC.

A year later, 193 nations at the UN General Assembly adopted the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, recognising the need for a comprehensive approach to issues related to migration and refugees and enhanced global cooperation.

It decided to start the process in April 2017 to develop a “Global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration.” Since then, several consultations have been organised to gather inputs from various regions and stakeholders.

The on-going negotiations will be concluded this July and the General Assembly will then hold an intergovernmental conference on international migration in 2018 in Morocco to adopt the global compact.

Along the same lines, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD) jointly hosted a stakeholder meeting in May on behalf of the UNFCCC Task Force on Displacement.

More than 60 experts from governments, regional organisations, civil society and international organisations contributed in drafting recommendations to avert, minimise and address displacement in the context of climate change.

After the discussion in its forthcoming September meeting, the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage will present the recommendations for adoption at the Katowice Climate Change Conference (COP 24) in December 2018.

“As climate change is already contributing to forced migration and displacement now and will continue to do so in the future, the recommendations of the Task Force can help develop a more prospective approach to managing displacement risk, including more equitable financing and risk reduction,” Desai told indiaclimatedialogue.net.

Migration as adaptation

There is an on-going discussion to consider migration as an adaptation strategy and not just a desperate measure taken by people badly hit by climate impacts. The answer lies in analysing whether the recourse taken by climate victims offers them better quality of life or an unsafe situation devoid of identity and inadequate access to basic services like healthcare, shelter, sanitation and security.

“If we invest in climate action today, we reduce the risks of displacement due to climate change for future generations,” said Dina Ionesco, IOM Head of Migration, Environment and Climate Change division. “It will mean reducing losses and damages that occur when migration is a tragedy and a last resort.”

But, Ionesco added, “We also have to think migration policy and practice with innovative eyes, so as to see how safe and orderly migration can provide solutions and opportunities for people who are affected by climate change to move in a dignified manner.”

All eyes are now on the December climate summit in Poland, with a few rounds of talks in between, when both the UN processes involving almost 200 countries conclude, collectively aiming to protect the safety, dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of all migrants.

“Migration remains the only option left for people who permanently lose home and income to climate change impacts,” said Vashist. “The issue requires serious attention from our governments and the global community alike.”

*The views expressed by the author are personal.

The post World Wakes up to Climate Migration appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Harjeet Singh is Global Lead on Climate Change at ActionAid International and is based in New Delhi*

 

Millions of people worldwide are being displaced by natural disasters triggered partially by climate change, and the international community is finally taking steps to mitigate the suffering

The post World Wakes up to Climate Migration appeared first on Inter Press Service.

The Gambia's Bakary Papa Gassama says that Video Assistant Referee technology cannot eliminate every mistake made by match officials.

By WAM
SHARJAH, Jun 11 2018 (WAM)

H.H. Sheikha Jawaher bint Mohammed Al Qasimi, Chairperson of the Supreme Council for Family Affairs and wife of H.H. the Ruler of Sharjah, has made a strong call for a renewed global commitment urging greater cooperation among world leaders, decision makers, humanitarian organisations and civil society to protect children from being pushed into the world of forced labour and exploitation.

The benefits of ending child labour are immeasurable. Children who are free from the burden of child labour are able to fully realise their rights to education, leisure, and a healthy development, and in turn become the very foundations of a just, equitable society for future generations
Speaking on the occasion of World Day Against Child Labour, Sheikha Jawaher said, “Elimination of child labour requires us to focus attention on the societal triggers of this global epidemic; most notably armed conflicts, poverty, climate change, and limited access to education, welfare, and one’s rights. The benefits of ending child labour are immeasurable. Children who are free from the burden of child labour are able to fully realise their rights to education, leisure, and a healthy development, and in turn become the very foundations of a just, equitable society for future generations.”

Sheikha Jawaher shed light on the dismal International Labour Organisation child labour statistic, according to which 168 million children are forced into child labour. “Children are not only being exploited as forced labourers; they are subjected to dangerous environments when they are trafficked or recruited as child soldiers,” she noted.

On the reality of children and youth in the world, in view of armed conflicts, Sheikha Jawaher said, “Reforming the world starts with a happy childhood filled with love and care, as a child’s memory determines the person’s characteristics and attitudes, and the rest of their lives. Many social deformities in people emerge out of the emotional deprivation and marginalisation they suffer in the early years of life.

“The conflicts we see today are led by young people who grew up in broken homes and societies. This signals an immediate need for nations to move much faster with their efforts to build societies in which children’s voices are fully heard, and their rights and aspirations are protected. How can we ask the youth to give back to society if we do not nurture them or embrace their dreams when they are dependent on us for support and direction?”

Commenting on Sharjah being named a “Child-Friendly City” by UNICEF, she said, “This recognition is a result of decades of efforts and single-minded devotion to children’s welfare by a variety of social actors in the emirate who were guided by the vision of H.H. Dr. Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, Supreme Council Member and Ruler of Sharjah.

WAM/Nour Salman

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One of Europe's biggest dance festivals is shining a spotlight on the diversity of modern African music.

The new coalition government has been outlining its immigration policies.

A new book has been published in Nigeria to give LGBT women the opportunity to share their stories.

By 2030 the ambition is to restore 100 million hectares of currently degraded land and sequester 250 million tons of carbon. Credit: Greatgreenwall.org

By Issa Sikiti da Silva
DAKAR, Senegal, Jun 11 2018 (IPS)

Hope, smiles and new vitality seem to be returning slowly but surely in various parts of the Sahel region, where the mighty Sahara Desert has all but ‘eaten’ and degraded huge parts of landscapes, destroying livelihoods and subjecting many communities to extreme poverty.

The unexpected relief has come from the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative (GGWSSI), an eight-billion-dollar project launched by the African Union (AU) with the blessing of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the backing of organizations such as the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The Sahara, an area of 3.5 million square miles, is the largest ‘hot’ desert in the world and home to some 70 species of mammals, 90 species of resident birds and 100 species of reptiles, according to DesertUSA.

Restoring landscapes

The GGW aims to restore Africa’s degraded landscapes and transform millions of lives in one of the world’s poorest regions. This will be done by, among others, planting a wall of trees in more than 20 countries – westward from Gambia to eastward in Djibouti – over 7,600 km long and 15 km wide across the continent.

The countries include Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Senegal. There is also Algeria, Egypt, Gambia, Eritrea, Somalia, Cameroon, Ghana, Togo and Benin.

A girl learns about the project through a virtual reality headset. Credit: Greatgreenwall.org

Popularity

Elvis Paul Nfor Tangem, AU’s GGWSSI coordinator, told IPS that the project was doing well, gaining popularity and generating many other ideas as the implementation gains momentum.

Tangem also said that the AU had begun working with the Secretariat of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Namibian government for the extension of the GGWSSI concept to the dry lands of the Southern Africa region.

Namibia, which borders South Africa, is located between the Namib and Kalahari deserts. Namib, from which the country draws its name, is believed to be the world’s oldest desert.

Largest project ever

If the GGW is indeed extended to Southern Africa, it will take the number of countries drawn to the project to over 20, making it one of the world’s largest projects ever.

Fundraising for beneficiaries countries is being done through bilateral negotiations, as well as through national investments, the AU said.

International partners including the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), Sahara and Sahel Observatory (SSO), among others, are also playing a critical role to ensure that the project is being successfully implemented, and upon its completion by 2030 will become the world’s largest living structure and a new Wonder of the World.

The icon of GGW shows the path of the Great Green Wall. Credit: Greatgreenwall.org

Food security

The GGW is set to create thousands of jobs for those who live along its path and boost food security and resilience to climate change in the Sahel, one of the driest parts of the world, where the FAO said an estimated 29.2 million people are food insecure.

The project founders said that by 2030 the ambition is to restore 100 million hectares of currently degraded land and sequester 250 million tons of carbon.

Asked if the project is being implementing one country after the other, Elvis replied: “The implementation of the initiative is first and famous country-based, meaning all the countries are undertaking implementation at their levels.

“However, the common factor among all the countries is the fact that their activities are based on the Harmonized Regional Strategy and their National Action Plans (NAP). We are supporting the production of the NAP in Cameroon and Ghana and also working on the SADC region.”

Returning home?

In Senegal, a total of 75 direct jobs and 1,800 indirect jobs, including in the nurseries sector and multipurpose gardens, have already been created through the GGW in the last six years, according to official statistics.

Also in Senegal, where desertification has slashed 34% of its area, the GGW has since ‘recovered’ just over 40,000 hectares out of the 817,500 hectares planned for the project. This is good news for people like Ibrahima Ba and his family who left their homeland to move to Dakar in the quest of greener pastures.

Now, he is contemplating a return home. “I’m planning to go back towards the end of the year to rebuild my shattered life. The Sahara hasn’t done anybody any favor by taking away our livelihood,” Ba, a livestock farmer Peul from northern Senegal, told IPS.

An estimated 300,000 people live in the three provinces crossed by the GGW in Senegal.

Participatory approach

However, Marine Gauthier, an environmental expert for the Rights and Resources’ Initiative, (RRI) said a participatory approach was needed if the project was to be implemented successfully.

“In a conflictual region, where people depend on the land for their survival and where there are numerous transhumance activities from herders peoples (Peuls) potentially impacted by the project, a careful participatory approach is needed,” Gauthier said.

“Conflicts have already arisen a couple of years ago with Peuls (herders practicing transhumance, whose travels were to be restrained by the project). Just like any other environmental protection project, its capacity to engage with local communities, to make them first beneficiaries of the project, is the key to its success on the long term.

“Participatory mapping is a very successful tool that has been used within other projects and that could be of great help in defining and establishing the Great Green Wall,” Gauthier said.

Furthermore, Gauthier said empowering communities would be very interesting at the scale of the Great Green Wall. “It would take a lot of efforts, consultations, financial and human resources. It is however the only way to ensure that this project, which people are talking about for more than 10 years now, reaches its goal.

“Because when the communities are empowered and when their rights on the land are secured, it benefits directly to the environment and to preserving this land from more damage.”

Related Articles

• Public-Private Pacts Open Doors to Climate Finance in Rwanda and Ethiopia
• Africa Gains Momentum in Green Climate Solutions
• Leading from the Front: Zambia Launches Plant a Million Trees Initiative

The post Great Green Wall Brings Hope, Greener Pastures to Africa’s Sahel appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

This article is part of a series of stories and op-eds launched by IPS on the occasion of the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought on June 17.

The post Great Green Wall Brings Hope, Greener Pastures to Africa’s Sahel appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Egypt now know they will have Mohamed Salah fit to play a part in the World Cup group stage, so can this team play to his strengths?

The Aquarius, carrying 629 people rescued from the Mediterranean, is told to stay put.

South Africa and Cameroon secure big wins as they qualify for the 2018 Women's Africa Cup of Nations in Ghana.

Cameroon forward Stephane Bahoken vows to push himself 'to the maximum' at Angers after joining the French club.

By WAM
ABU DHABI, Jun 10 2018 (WAM)

The Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan Foundation has sent a ship loaded with humanitarian and food aid to the Yemeni island of Socotra. The move follows the directives of President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and the follow-up of H.H. Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Presidential Affairs and Chairman of Khalifa Foundation.

The Foundation’s team began to distribute the relief aid among locals which included 7,000 food baskets, 4,732 blankets, 358 tents and 338 food containers.

The people of Socotra commended the efforts of the UAE leadership for their assistance, saying that this aid has a great impact in relieving the hardships of locals, especially during the difficult conditions they are facing.

 

 

They also thanked the Khalifa Foundation for the aid, saying that its efforts in Yemen, together with that of the Emirates Red Crescent, have greatly contributed to helping the Yemeni people and in alleviating their suffering.

The latest aid is part of the Foundation’s recently launched Ramadan Project which aims to provide 10,000 food baskets to residents of the Yemeni island, via sea and air.

WAM/Esraa Ismail/Rasha Abubaker

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Three quarter-final appearances but not much else - BBC Sport looks at just how far an African team is from winning the World Cup.