Africa

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By Mohammed Jalal Alrayssi
ABU DHABI, Nov 4 2018 (WAM)

The recent trailblazing steps taken by ADNOC to deliver growth across value chain and expand its partnership model on international markets are seen as a step forward on the path to underpin its integrated 2030 Strategy, which is premised to transform the way the Group maximises value from every barrel, and deliver the greatest possible return to Abu Dhabi while helping meet the world’s growing demand for energy.

These initiatives have been well-received by the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) as being a quantum leap on the way to ensure ADNOC’s transformational development and sustain its efficient contributions to the nation’s economic diversification strategy, laid down as per the prudent vision of President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and the direct overseeing of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces.

The ambitious downstream growth strategy initiated by ADNOC, unlocks new opportunities for large segments of investors in the public and private sectors alike, by optimising performance and maximising value through engaging international investors in collaboration with SMEs to intensify the use of national products and services.

The economic diversification policy embraced by the country, stems from prudent utilisation of oil & gas revenues to ensure sustainable income streams for generations to come in a way that dissipates any concerns about the depletion of oil wealth. A concern that is set to be replaced with confidence and optimism instilled by the pioneering steps being taken to maximise revenues and unlock values of the hydrocarbon sector while investing these revenues in future industries, namely advanced technology, AI, etc.

At the heart of ADNOC’s economic diversification strategy lies a firm belief in the significant value boasted by the UAE as a world-class logistics hub that connects the country with its strategic partners across Europe and Asia through modern ports that provide unmatched world services.

ADNOC’s new five-year business plan and capital investment growth of AED 486 billion (US$132.33 billion) between 2019-2023, approved today by SUPC, along with the new oil and gas finds, corroborate in no uncertain way the Group’s resilience and ability to keep pace with world developments. A pioneering role the ADNOC has been playing over the past decades and will continue to assume over years to come through its robust partnership model inside and outside the country, driven by the UAE’s soft power as well as the great potential of its youth and women’s empowerment.

Translating the late Sheikh Zayed’s sound bite that man is the one who builds plants, ADNOC reaffirms that man is its most cherished asset and that hopes are pinned on this generation whose members are well-equipped with state-of-the-art technology to ensure the wise leadership’s vision for a safe, stable and bright future for the nation.

WAM/Hatem Mohamed/Hassan Bashir

WAM/Hassan Bashir

The post Op-Ed: ADNOC is UAE’s ubiquitous vehicle for economic diversification appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Mohammed Jalal Alrayssi is Executive Director of the Emirates News Agency, WAM

The post Op-Ed: ADNOC is UAE’s ubiquitous vehicle for economic diversification appeared first on Inter Press Service.

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By Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury
Nov 3 2018 (The Daily Star, Bangladesh)

Only a few would be persuaded that President Donald Trump is deeply informed about any moderately complex subject. Ballistic missiles is one such. In fact, such a notion becomes firm when one considers his expression of bewilderment when Japan did not shoot down the North Korean “Hwasong-15” missile in flight just as the Saudis had done the Houthi projectile fired from Yemen. Anyone with even meagre understanding of missile technology would know that thetwo situations were not the same. And that the former action would have been well-nigh impossible with available Japanese capability.So when he caught out the Russians cheating on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty of 1987, he took many by surprise. The Russians might have indeed tried to pull wool over American eyes by quietly deploying a new medium range weapon in violation of that landmark agreement. This is not to say that Mr Trump came to this conclusion on his own. At least it was apparent that he heeded counsel in this regard, which in itself is a silver lining of no mean consequence.

During much of the Cold War period, as nuclear weapons, particularly among thesuperpowers proliferated, peace was maintained on the premise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). In other words, since the key powers, the United States and the Soviet Union, had the capability to obliterate each other, neither wanted to initiate a war. Then in the mid-1970s a US Secretary of Defence propounded that all nuclear conflict need not lead to MAD. In what is known as “Schlesinger Doctrine” named after him, he enunciated a kind of “limited war”that there could be small scale nuclear conflicts, with weapons of lesser yield, gradually escalating to higher levels, rendering a nuclear war “fightable” and even “winnable”. The view was that the enemy would capitulate along the path of escalation. Design and production of weaponry followed theory. Shorter range missiles, more precise weapons, and theory justifying their “tactical” rather than “strategic”use,emerged.

There are usually two types oftargets in a nuclear war: “counterforce” directed against hardened and military structures, and“countervalue”, against“soft targets” as cities and civilian populations. Since long range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) were imprecise, their targets were logically softer, or mainly “countervalue” ones. But intermediate or medium range missiles (IRBMs and MRBMs)would have greater precision and therefore higher capacity to “kill” hardened “counterforce” targets. Because there would be greater propensity to use more precise weapons with lesser collateral damage, theorists considered these more “destabilising” than the larger imprecise weapons which would certainly attract devastating response.

Acutely aware of these dangers, the US and Soviet leaders, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the 1987 INF Treaty.It required them to eliminate and permanently forswear all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres.As a result, bothsuperpowers destroyed 2,692 missiles by the treaty’s implementation deadline of June 1,1990.The US removed their Cruise and Pershing missiles deployed in the UK and Germany, and the Soviets their deadly SS-20s out of the range of Europe. Some believe North Korea may have gone on to procure some of these.

Around the middle of the current decade, both the Americans and the Russians began to allege non-compliance of the treaty by the other. The US blamed Russia for developing the SSC-8, a land-based intermediate range cruise missile. Moscow raised its own concerns about the US placement of a missile defence launch system in Europe that can be used to fire cruise missiles, and manufacturing armed drones that equalled ground-launched cruise missiles prohibited in the treaty. Nonetheless, both parties declared their “support” for the treaty in a United Nations General Assembly statement on October 25,2007, inviting other nuclear powers to join it. An intended target of the call was perhaps China, which roundly ignored it, and continued developing its own deadly weapons. It includes the “Deng Feng” (East Wind), DF-26, an IRBM with a maximum range of 4,000 km which put the US installation of Guam in the Pacific under threat. The non-party status of China to the INF Treaty actually concerns both the US and Russia, though the former, understandably more so.

Others have also got into the game.The Indians have “Agni” and “Shaurya” missiles, with some variants of the former IRBMs having ICBM range and capabilities. The Chinese of course would factor in India. While Pakistan does not have ICBMs, which is not required vis-à-vis India, it has its “Shaheen-3” missile that would be its credible deterrent with regard to its principal adversary. It can strike at any target within India or as far as Myanmar, or even Israel if appropriately deployed. Israel, another undeclared nuclear power, possesses “Jericho-2” and “Jericho-3” with ranges of 1,500to 3,500 km and 4,500 to 6,500 km respectively.Iran, which does not have nuclear weapons, has developed several types of IRBMs, namely “Emad”, “Qader”, “Sejjil”, “Soumar”, and “Khorramshahr”, all with range between 2,000 and 2,500 km. Of these “Khorramshahr” can carry three conventional warheads, weighing upto 1,800 kg.

The massive destructive power of some of these conventional weapons are so great as to blur their difference with smaller tactical or “theatre” nuclear weapons. There exists a voluntary agreement with 35 members called the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), set up in 1987. It seeks to limit control on spread of export of missiles and related technology, but only India from those with recently acquired capabilities is a member.

Should Mr Trump pull out of the IMF Treaty, the result would most certainly be destabilising. Both the US and Russia will begin to develop newer and deadlier weapons. Without the INF Treaty, and others of this ilk, disarmament and arms control initiatives will take a huge hit. Then, in a new era of rearmament and arms de-control, peace and stability can only hinge only on deterrence, or fear of devastating retaliation. This will be a return to primordial human behaviour and psychology. Not a wholesome situation, or solution, but sadly may be an inevitable one.

Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury is a former foreign adviser to a caretaker government of Bangladesh and is currently Principal Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.

This story was originally published by The Daily Star, Bangladesh

The post Arms control and disarmament to arms decontrol and rearmament appeared first on Inter Press Service.

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Alberto Flores (center) works hard to harvest the few bunches of plantains that he managed to salvage from his plantation, which was flooded and ruined after the rains that hit El Salvador in mid-October. He estimates his losses at 2,000 dollars. And in August he lost his maize crop, to drought. Credit: Edgardo Ayala/IPS

By Edgardo Ayala
SAN SALVADOR, Nov 2 2018 (IPS)

Disconsolate, Alberto Flores piles up on the edge of a road the few bunches of plantains that he managed to save from a crop spoiled by heavy rains that completely flooded his farm in central El Salvador.

“Everything was lost, I have been cutting what can be salvaged, standing in water up to my knees,” said Flores, a 54-year-old peasant farmer from San Marcos Jiboa, a village in the municipality of San Luis Talpa, in the south-central department of La Paz.

Flores told IPS that as a result of the rains, which hit El Salvador and the rest of Central America in mid-October, he lost some 2,000 dollars, after nearly a hectare of his plantain (cooking bananas) crop was flooded."We must consider the protection of agriculture and how that improves food security, and to this end we must work on prevention measures that make productive systems more resilient and that generate sustainable development.” -- Mariano Peñate

San Marcos Jiboa is a rural community of 250 families, 90 percent of whom are dedicated to agriculture. Most of the local farming families were affected by the torrential rains, IPS found during a tour of the area.

The damage was mainly to chili peppers, maize, beans, bananas, pipián – similar to zucchini – and loroco (Fernaldia pandurata), a creeper whose flower is edible and widely used in the local diet.

Other parts of the country and the Central American region were also hit hard.

Central America has been described in reports by international organisations as one of the planet’s most vulnerable regions to the onslaught of climate change.

And yet, tools that help farmers mitigate weather shocks, such as agricultural insurance, are not widely available in Central America, although important initiatives have been launched.

“I’ve heard about agricultural insurance, but no one comes to explain what it’s about,” said Flores, who perspires heavily as he piles up clusters of green plantains.

Compared to Mexico or countries in South America, Central America has made little progress in this area, according to the report Agricultural Insurance in the Americas, published in 2015 by the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA).

The report states that the efforts made in the region have not generated the expected results, although it cites a growth in agricultural insurance premiums in Guatemala, where they totalled 2.25 million dollars, followed by Panama (1.8 million) and Costa Rica (just over 500,000 dollars), according to data from 2013.

Experts pointed out that the high cost of agricultural insurance premiums, which is about 13 percent of an agricultural loan or investment, is one of the reasons, as well as a lack of information on and culture of using insurance.

Rows of banana plants on a farm flooded by heavy rains in the village of San Marcos Jiboa, in the central Salvadoran municipality of San Luis Talpa. The rains that hit Central America in mid-October not only impacted crops but also left 38 dead and more than 200,000 people affected in the region. Credit: Edgardo Ayala/IPS

“Basically, it’s expensive,” Saúl Ortiz, Guate Invierte’s Risk Analysis and Management Coordinator, told IPS by telephone from Guatemala. The financial institution manages a trust fund of more than 70 million dollars in agricultural support in various areas, including insurance.

It is precisely because of these costs that Guate Invierte emerged in 2005, added Ortiz, to support the country’s small and medium producers and give them the chance to take out a policy. The initial plan was to extend it throughout the region.

In addition to being a state guarantor of agricultural credits acquired by farmers from other financial institutions, Guate Invierte offered insurance not linked to loans, with a subsidy of up to 70 percent of the cost of the premium.Climate impact

"Climate change definitely has consequences for production and for people's livelihoods, especially those who depend on agriculture," FAO consultant in El Salvador Mariano Peñate told IPS.

The soil is deteriorating and the livelihoods, especially of the poor, are being hit hard because of the impact on the yields of their small-scale crops, and indirectly, due to the reduction of employment, he said.

That affects food security, he added, not only of the population affected by these climatic phenomena, but also of the people who depend on the crops grown in the affected areas.

"We must consider the protection of agriculture and how that improves food security, and to this end we must work on prevention measures that make productive systems more resilient and that generate sustainable development," he said.

But that scheme failed because the government stopped injecting funds, and in 2015 Guate Invierte ceased to offer subsidised insurance not linked to loans, although it maintains coverage for customers who do have loans.

In El Salvador, while there is not a consolidated market, one kind of policy aimed at small farmers has begun to operate.

In July, Seguros Futuro, together with the state-run Agricultural Development Bank, launched the Produce Seguro programme, with coverage for earthquakes, droughts and excessive rainfall.

It is a microinsurance scheme aimed at the bank’s portfolio of 50,000 clients, whether they are farmers or involved in other productive sectors.

Unlike traditional insurance policies, which in the event of a catastrophe only pay for physically verified crop losses, Produce Seguro offers “parametric” insurance.

This kind of insurance pays a set amount for a specific event, based on the magnitude of the disaster, such as an earthquake or flooding, as measured y satellite and other advanced technology which indicates, for example, the level of rainfall in a given area.

The higher the level of rainfall in the policyholder’s area, the higher the indemnity.

In the case of rainfall, the initial level is 136 mm of water accumulated over three days. The information comes from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Salvadoran Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.

“We don’t have to do any verification in the area, everything is based on the charts,” Daysi Rosales, general manager of Seguros Futuro, told IPS.

The pilot programme is supported by Swiss Re, the Swiss reinsurance company. The cost of premiums is five percent of the credit contracted with the BFA, which is affordable to farmers.

As a result of the last downpours, “the parameters have already been met and some level of compensation will be made, although we haven’t paid yet because the event just occurred and we are processing the payments,” said Rosales.

Rosales and Ortiz concur that state participation has been key to the expansion of agricultural insurance in South American countries or Mexico, something that has not happened in Central America.

“In Mexico, 90 percent is paid by the State; it is the State that buys the insurance, not the people,” said Rosales.

Meanwhile, on one of the flooded plots of land in San Marcos Jiboa, Víctor Alcántara, another farmer who was affected by the rains, said the impacts of natural disasters are felt virtually every year in this country, where climate change has become more severe this century.

“This time the blow was twofold: first we lost our maize in August, to drought, and now I’ve lost almost my whole loroco crop because of the rain,” he added.

Alcántara said he had invested 300 dollars in planting loroco, and has lost 60 percent of the crop due to the heavy rains.

Added to this is the loss of half a hectare of maize, worth around 400 dollars, due to the drought that affected the area in August, in the middle of the May to November rainy season, which is when the two annual harvests take place.

In August, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Food Programme warned in a joint statement that the drought would impact the price of food, since maize and beans, basic to the Central American diet, have been the most affected crops.

Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras reported losses of 281,000 hectares of these crops, on which the food security and nutrition of 2.1 million people depend, the report said.

Now that his maize harvest is ruined, Alcantara said he will have to figure out how to put tortillas on his family’s table.

 

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