The Liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski has won the first round of the presidential election in Poland with 31.4 percent of the vote, giving him a narrow lead against right-wing conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki (29.5 percent). The two will now face each other in the run-off on 1 June. The right-wing populist Sławomir Mentzen came third with 14.8 percent, followed by far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun with 6.3 percent.
The downgrade was mostly due to a steep reduction in the growth forecast for Germany, the EU’s largest economy, whose export-dependent industries are heavily exposed to global trade tensions.
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Far-right Chega is projected to rise to 20–24%, up from 18% in 2024, solidifying its role as a potential kingmaker in the next parliament.
The two will now face off in a runoff on 1 June, which is widely seen as a referendum on Poland’s future direction after a decade of conservative PiS dominance under the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda.
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